Comparison of the self-ignition probability of new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles, which has a higher probability of self-ignition? Which one causes more harm?

Analysis of the spontaneous combustion probability and damage comparison between new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles

Based on your question, I have reviewed the relevant search results (as of September 13, 2025), focusing on newer data from 2024 and beyond, as this is closer to the current time point. There are some contradictory pieces of information in the search results (for example, some sources claim that the self-ignition rate of fuel vehicles is higher, while more recent official data indicates that the self-ignition rate of new energy vehicles is higher). I will prioritize citing the latest and most reliable official data sources (such as the National Fire Rescue Administration) in my response. Here is a point-by-point analysis:

1. Spontaneous Combustion Probability Comparison
- According to search results, there is controversy over the spontaneous combustion probability of new energy vehicles (NEVs) and fuel vehicles (gasoline cars), but newer official data shows that the spontaneous combustion probability of new energy vehicles is significantly higher than that of fuel vehicles.
- Key Data Source:
- National Fire Rescue Administration 2024 data (released in September 2024, newer and reliable): The fire occurrence rate for new energy vehicles is 0.7179 per ten thousand vehicles, while for fuel vehicles it is 0.3692 per ten thousand vehicles. This means that the spontaneous combustion probability of new energy vehicles is approximately 1.94 times that of fuel vehicles (calculation: 0.7179 ÷ 0.3692 ≈ 1.94).
- Data from the Ministry of Emergency Management of the People's Republic of China for the first quarter of 2023 (released in June 2024): The number of new energy vehicles in use is 8.915 million, with 640 spontaneous combustion incidents, resulting in a spontaneous combustion rate of 0.71‱ (i.e., 0.07179%); the number of fuel vehicles in use is 395 million, with 18,360 spontaneous combustion incidents, resulting in a spontaneous combustion rate of 0.465‱ (i.e., 0.0465%). The calculation results also show that the spontaneous combustion rate of new energy vehicles is higher (0.71‱ vs. 0.465‱).
- Disputes from other sources:
- A 2023 survey by American institutions claims that the self-ignition rate of new energy vehicles (0.03 per ten thousand) is lower than that of fuel vehicles (0.15 per ten thousand). However, this data is relatively old (published in 2023) and inconsistent with the official data from China in 2024, possibly due to regional or methodological differences.
- Some laboratory data (to be released in 2024) claims that the spontaneous combustion rate of new energy vehicles is lower than that of fuel vehicles, but no specific numbers have been provided, and the sources are unofficial, making them less reliable.
- Summary: Based on the latest official data from China (2024), the spontaneous combustion probability of new energy vehicles is higher, approximately 1.94-1.95 times that of fuel vehicles. This is mainly attributed to the risk of thermal runaway in batteries (such as ternary lithium batteries) and safety hazards brought about by increased battery density.

To visually present, below is a key data comparison table (based on search results):

| Data Source and Time | New Energy Vehicle Spontaneous Combustion Rate | Fuel Vehicle Spontaneous Combustion Rate | New Energy vs. Fuel Vehicle Ratio | Reliability Explanation |
|----------------|-------------------|--------------|------------------------|------------|
| National Fire Rescue Administration (2024 ) | 0.7179 per 10,000 vehicles | 0.3692 per 10,000 vehicles | 1.94 times (higher for new energy) | Official latest data, high reliability |
| Ministry of Emergency Management (2023 Q1) | 0.71‱ (0.07179%) | 0.465‱ (0.0465%) | 1.53 times (higher for new energy) | Official data, but there are slight contradictions in the calculations (the text mentions 1.5‱, but calculates to 0.465‱), still supports that new energy is higher |
| US institutions investigation (2023 ) | 0.3 per ten thousand | 1.5 per ten thousand | 0.2 times (even lower for new energy) | Early data, may not apply to the current situation in China, reliability is low |
| Laboratory Data (2024 ) | Claims lower (no specific value) | Claims higher (no specific value) | Claims new energy lower | Unofficial source, no quantitative data, low reliability |

Note: The probability of spontaneous combustion is affected by various factors, such as vehicle age (new energy vehicles are more prone to spontaneous combustion when they are new, while fuel vehicles are more likely to do so when they are old) and battery type (the risk for ternary lithium batteries is as high as 60%, while lithium iron phosphate batteries have only a 5% risk).

2. Comparison of Self-ignition Damage
- The hazards of spontaneous combustion in new energy vehicles are greater, mainly manifested in the rapid spread of fire, short escape time, and high risk of explosion.
- Fire and explosion risks: Once a new energy vehicle's battery (especially lithium ternary batteries) catches fire, it can easily lead to thermal runaway, resulting in an instantaneous explosion, leaving passengers with very little escape time (only a few seconds). In contrast, fuel vehicles usually catch fire due to issues with the fuel line or electrical circuit, and the fire develops more slowly, not resulting in an immediate explosion, allowing for relatively ample escape time (up to several minutes).
- Escape obstacles: The design of new energy vehicles (such as hidden door handles) may hinder escape in emergency situations, while the structure of fuel vehicles is simpler, making escape relatively easier.
- Degree of damage: New energy vehicles catching fire are often accompanied by high voltage system failures, which may trigger a chain reaction (such as total vehicle destruction), while fuel vehicles catching fire are mostly related to illegal modifications or aging, and the fire is relatively easier to control.
- Summary: The harm caused by spontaneous combustion of new energy vehicles is greater, as the risk of explosion and rapid spread of fire may result in more serious casualties and property damage.

Comprehensive Suggestions
- Safety Reminder: Regardless of whether you choose an electric vehicle or a gasoline vehicle, you should regularly check the vehicle's condition (for electric vehicles, focus on monitoring battery health, and for gasoline vehicles, pay attention to fuel line maintenance). It is recommended to prioritize models equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries (which have a spontaneous combustion probability of only 5%).
- Data Limitations: Some data in the search results have inconsistencies (such as calculation errors), and I prioritized citing the latest official sources. If you have specific model or regional requirements, please provide more details for further analysis.

The above content is collected and generated by AI, for reference only.