With 9 months left until Powell's term ends, discussions about who will succeed the Fed chair position have become intense.

The chairman of the Fed may be the most powerful economic position in the world. His words can cause significant fluctuations in the capital markets, and a single decision can affect the flow of trillions of dollars. Your mortgage rates, stock market returns, and even the volatility of crypto assets are all closely related to the decisions made in this position.
So who is most likely to be the next chairman? The market is gradually giving its own answer.

On August 7, on the prediction market Kalshi, the winning probability of Fed Governor Christopher Waller surged from 16% the previous day to over 50%, surpassing all competitors for the first time. Although the odds fluctuated afterwards, Waller maintained his lead throughout.

As of the latest data, Polymarket shows that Waller is still leading with a 35% probability, higher than other popular competitors Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh at 17%.