Bank of New York Mellon: The Federal Reserve's hawkish dot plot may surprise the market, reducing the likelihood of aggressive easing policies this year.

On June 18, Bank of New York Mellon’s Americas macro strategist John Velis said that no change in interest rates is expected at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, but the new Summary of Economic Projections could impact markets. The dot plot will indicate that rate cuts in 2025 will be lower than previously expected. Given that the market is expecting nearly two rate cuts this year, a more hawkish dot plot could disrupt the market. The Fed has become increasingly cautious about cutting interest rates in 2025, and inflation remains a top concern for most members who have already shared their thoughts. Given the ongoing policy uncertainty, the Fed is unlikely to soften its interest rate view. With only four Fed meetings left this year after June, it seems increasingly unlikely that there will be time for aggressive easing this year. ( gold ten )