Recently, the price of Bitcoin has突破了 the $120,000 mark, attracting widespread follow in the market. This breakthrough is not coincidental, but closely related to the current government shutdown crisis facing the United States. The chain reaction brought about by the government shutdown is spreading through the financial markets, causing key economic data releases to be paused and leading to uncertainty in Fed decision-making.

In this special situation, market expectations for a rate cut by the Fed have surged sharply, with the probability of a rate cut believed to be as high as 96.7%. Interestingly, the government shutdown has instead become a favorable factor for the cryptocurrency market. Due to the Labor Department suspending the release of core economic data, important indicators such as the non-farm payroll report and CPI index are unavailable, which poses unprecedented challenges for the Fed in its decision-making. Historical experience shows that in times of increased uncertainty, central banks tend to adopt more accommodative monetary policies.

The flow of funds clearly reflects market sentiment. Within just a few hours after the confirmation of the government shutdown news, Bitcoin ETF attracted a net inflow of $430 million. Meanwhile, gold prices also soared to a historical high of $3,875. This synchronized rise of traditional safe-haven assets and digital assets reflects investors' deep concerns about the sovereign credit system.

However, this round of increase also carries potential risks. If the government shutdown issue is resolved quickly, risk aversion sentiment may dissipate rapidly, and funds may flow back to traditional markets. On the other hand, if the shutdown lasts too long, it may weigh on the overall economy, and in a situation of liquidity exhaustion, high-risk assets may also face adverse impacts. In addition, the slowdown of the work progress of regulatory agencies such as the SEC may affect the approval process of other cryptocurrency-related products.

Overall, the current market environment provides a unique opportunity for Bitcoin to perform, but investors still need to closely follow the developments in the political and economic situation, weighing the potential risks and rewards.