Tiger Research Report: Bitcoin valuation of $200,000 in Q4 2025

Authors: Daniel Kim, Ryan Yoon, Jay Jo; Source: Tiger Research; Translated by: Shaw Jinse Finance

This report presents Tiger Research's outlook on Bitcoin for the fourth quarter of 2025, with a target of $200,000, based on the rationale that institutional investors continue to buy amid market volatility, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, and the October plunge confirming the dominance of institutions in the market.

Key points

• Institutional investors continue to increase holdings amidst volatility—Net inflows into ETFs remained steady in the third quarter, with MSTR adding 388 Bitcoin in a single month, reinforcing long-term investment confidence;
• Overheated but not extreme — The MVRV-Z index is 2.31, indicating that the valuation is high but not yet at extreme levels. The clearing of leveraged funds has removed short-term traders, creating space for the next wave of increases;
• The global liquidity environment continues to improve - The broad money supply (M2) has surpassed 96 trillion USD, setting a new historical record. Expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are rising, with 1-2 cuts anticipated within the year.

Institutional investors buy amid uncertainties in China-U.S. trade

In the third quarter of 2025, the Bitcoin market slowed down from the strong growth in the second quarter (quarter-on-quarter growth of 28%) and entered a volatile consolidation phase (quarter-on-quarter growth of 1%).

On October 6, Bitcoin reached a historic high of $126,210, but the Trump administration once again applied trade pressure on China, causing Bitcoin's price to pull back 18% to $104,000, significantly increasing volatility. According to Volmex Finance's Bitcoin Volatility Index (BVIV), as institutional investors steadily increased their holdings, Bitcoin's volatility narrowed from March to September, but soared 41% after September, exacerbating market uncertainty (Chart 1).

Driven by the resurgence of Sino-U.S. trade frictions and Trump's tough rhetoric, this pullback appears to be temporary. The strategic accumulation led by Strategy Inc. (MSTR) is actually accelerating. The macro environment has also played a facilitating role. The global broad money supply (M2) has surpassed $96 trillion, reaching a record high, while the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% on September 17. The Fed hinted at one to two more rate cuts this year, with a stable labor market and economic recovery creating favorable conditions for risk assets.

Institutional capital inflow remains strong. In the third quarter, net inflows for Bitcoin spot ETFs reached $7.8 billion. Although this is lower than the $12.4 billion in the second quarter, the continued net inflows throughout the third quarter confirm stable buying by institutional investors. This momentum carried into the fourth quarter—recording $3.2 billion in just the first week of October, setting a new weekly inflow record for 2025. This indicates that institutional investors view price corrections as strategic entry opportunities. Strategy continued to buy during the market correction, purchasing 220 Bitcoins on October 13 and 168 Bitcoins on October 20, totaling 388 Bitcoins in one week. This shows that regardless of short-term fluctuations, institutional investors firmly believe in the long-term value of Bitcoin.

On-chain data signals are overheated, fundamentals remain unchanged

On-chain analysis reveals some signs of overheating, but the valuation is not yet concerning. The MVRV-Z indicator (the ratio of market value to realized value) is currently in the overheated zone at 2.31, but has stabilized compared to the extreme valuation range approached in July-August (Chart 2).

The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss Ratio (NUPL) also shows an overheated area, but has eased compared to the high unrealized profit situation in the second quarter (Chart 3). The Adjusted Spending Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) reflects the realized profit and loss of investors, and this ratio is very close to the equilibrium value of 1.03, indicating that there is no need for concern (Chart 4).

The number of Bitcoin transactions and active users remained at a similar level compared to the previous quarter, indicating that the network's growth momentum has temporarily slowed (Chart 5). Meanwhile, the total transaction volume shows an upward trend. A decrease in the number of transactions but an increase in transaction volume suggests that larger amounts of money were transferred in fewer transactions, indicating an increase in large capital flows.

However, we cannot simply view the increase in trading volume as a positive signal. Recently, there has been an increase in funds flowing into centralized exchanges, which usually indicates that holders are preparing to sell (Chart 6). In the absence of improvements in fundamental indicators such as the number of trades and active users, the rise in trading volume more reflects the movement of short-term funds and selling pressure in a high volatility environment, rather than an expansion of real demand.

October 11th Crash Proves Market Has Shifted to Institutional Dominance

The crash of centralized exchanges on October 11 (down 14%) proves that the Bitcoin market has shifted from being dominated by retail investors to being led by institutions.

The key point is: the market reaction is drastically different from before. In a similar environment at the end of 2021, panic among retail investors spread, leading to a collapse. This time, the pullback has been limited. After large-scale liquidations, institutional investors continue to buy, indicating their firm defense of the market's downside potential. Furthermore, institutions seem to view this as a healthy consolidation that helps eliminate excessive speculative demand.

In the short term, a series of sell-offs will lower the average purchase price for retail investors and increase psychological pressure, which may exacerbate volatility due to frustrated market sentiment. However, if institutional investors continue to enter the market during the consolidation phase, this pullback could lay the groundwork for the next round of increases.

Target price raised to $200,000

Using our TVM method for the third quarter analysis, we arrived at a neutral benchmark price of $154,000, which is a 14% increase from the $135,000 in the second quarter. Based on this, we applied a -2% fundamental adjustment and a +35% macro adjustment, resulting in a target price of $200,000.

A -2% fundamental adjustment reflects a temporary slowdown in network activity and an increase in deposits at centralized exchanges, indicating short-term weakness. The macro adjustment remains at 35%. Global liquidity expansion and continued institutional inflows, along with the Federal Reserve's dovish stance, provide a strong catalyst for the rise in the fourth quarter.

Short-term pullbacks may stem from signs of overheating, but this is part of a healthy consolidation rather than a trend or shift in market sentiment. The benchmark price continues to rise, indicating a steady increase in Bitcoin's intrinsic value. Although temporarily weak, the medium to long-term bullish outlook remains solid.