Halving Cycle? Exchange Inflows? Forget Them — The Post-ETF Era Playbook!

The traditional four-year Bitcoin halving cycle is breaking down in the post-ETF era. Liquidity, sovereign wealth, and derivatives are now the primary drivers of price. The market’s upside momentum is being capped by immense profit-taking, but new structural support levels suggest a much higher floor for any future bear market.

1. The Three Eras of Bitcoin’s Market Structure

Analyst James Check argues that Bitcoin’s market has shifted into a liquidity-driven regime, moving through three structural phases that supersede the halving narrative: Pivotal Shift: The market entered a more mature, Liquidity-Driven Regime starting in late 2022/early 2023.New Drivers: The pace of the market is now set by liquidity shocks, sovereign wealth allocations, and the growth of derivatives built on top of the new Spot ETFs. The traditional halving narrative is considered “dead” as a primary market driver.

2. The Liquidity Strain (The Selling Hole)

The reason liquidity may be strained, capping immediate upside despite record ETF demand, is a severe imbalance between new capital and long-term holder distribution: ETF Demand: Spot ETFs have absorbed around $60 billion in total inflows.The Supply Hole: This massive inflow is offset by monthly realized profit-taking of $30–100 billion from long-term holders (LTPs). This constant, substantial selling pressure from “old hands” is why prices have not climbed as quickly as ETF demand alone might suggest.

3. Price Target and New Structural Floor

The analyst dismisses the traditional Realized Price (around $52,000) as outdated, arguing that a new, higher structural floor has formed due to ETF and corporate treasury accumulation: New Structural Bear Market Floor: The clustering of cost bases from ETFs, corporate treasuries, and market averages indicates that the new bear market floor would likely form in the range of $75,000–$80,000. The analyst believes Bitcoin is unlikely to drop back down to the $30,000 level.Upside Scenario: Investors are advised to have a plan for an upside target of $150,000, which represents a potential top for the current cycle.

Conclusion

The Bitcoin market is now fundamentally defined by the influence of large capital flows from the ETF structure, shifting its behavior from a predictable four-year halving cycle to a liquidity-driven asset class. While the $30–100 billion monthly selling from long-term holders is dampening the rally, the widespread institutional adoption means any future bear market is anchored by a much higher structural floor, estimated to be between $75,000 and $80,000.