Bitcoin Price Prediction 2025: How Deep Could BTC Crash If Bulls Fail to Defend $107K-$110K Support Zone?

In the volatile world of decentralized finance (DeFi), Bitcoin (BTC) is testing critical waters, trading near $110,000 after a tepid recovery from Friday’s crash to $105,000. As of October 16, 2025, the cryptocurrency has rallied briefly to $116,000 but retreated amid bearish momentum indicators and a 17.5% drop in September trading volumes to $8.12 trillion. With open interest at $204 billion (peaking at $230 billion), BTC’s correlation to gold at a multi-year high of 0.9 signals risk aversion amid China’s trade measures against U.S. tariffs. For DeFi investors, this $107K-$110K support zone—formed by December-January intraday highs and September lows, aligned with the 200-day SMA at $107,500—holds the key to 2025’s trajectory, potentially impacting $150 billion+ TVL through BTC-collateralized lending.

Technical Breakdown: Channel Rejection and Momentum Fade

BTC remains within a 45-degree bullish channel since October 2023, but repeated failures above the upper boundary indicate buyer exhaustion. Overbought conditions from recent exuberance mirror December-January rejections, leading to sharp slides. Bearish signals dominate: Negative MACD and RSI below 50 confirm downside momentum. A breakdown would expose deeper pullbacks, echoing March-April sell-offs.

• Support Zone: $107K-$110K; 200-day SMA reinforcement.
• Resistance: $116K invalidation for bulls; channel highs at $120K.
• Volume Context: Four-month seasonal decline; OI surge signals leverage risks.

Expert Insights: Godbole’s Warning on Seller Dominance

CoinDesk’s Omkar Godbole cautions that failing to defend $107K-$110K hands control to sellers, risking a cascade similar to historical channel breaks. “Overexuberance could pave the way for volatility,” he notes, projecting targets below support.

Price Predictions: $82K Floor in Worst Case

If supports fail, next stops are $98,330 (June swing low) and $82,000 (channel lower bound). Conversely, a reclaim above $116K could target record highs, with 2025 forecasts at $130K-$200K on ETF inflows and rate cuts (97% October odds). DeFi implications: A crash could spike liquidation risks in BTC-backed protocols, but resilience favors rebounds.

In summary, Bitcoin’s $107K-$110K defense shapes 2025’s DeFi outlook, blending caution with rebound potential amid macro headwinds.