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The Analysis Company said, "We may have left the big altcoin seasons we knew behind," and revealed the possibility of a "micro altcoin season!"
The Crypto analysis firm Alphractal has published a new report evaluating the current state of the altcoin market and raising the question: Are we entering a brand new cycle?
The company points to data from the last two years indicating the emergence of "Micro Altcoin Seasons," which are short periods where certain altcoins have performed better than Bitcoin. This situation is in stark contrast to the 2017-2022 cycle, during which altcoins generally rose collectively and significantly reduced Bitcoin's dominance.
Alphractal said, "The 90-day change in Bitcoin dominance since 2023 indicates that we are experiencing several Micro Altcoin Seasons, a trend unlike anything we've seen before."
Currently, Bitcoin Dominance is above 63%, and when stablecoins like USDT and USDC are included, the total dominance rises to 72.52%. Alphractal states that this figure highlights how different the current market structure is compared to past cycles.
However, the firm notes that there is a glimmer of hope for altcoin investors: As Bitcoin dominance increases, the risk-reward ratio for altcoins generally becomes more attractive. According to the Altcoin Season Index, some altcoins have recently fallen less than Bitcoin, which suggests that accumulation may already be ongoing.
The report states, "We may not see these low prices again for certain altcoins," and indicates potential upward movement if market sentiment changes.
Still, the outlook is not universally bullish. Popular tokens like SOL, XRP, AAVE, and BNB, which gained strong profits in early 2024, may face another decline if Bitcoin continues to drop, according to the analysis company.
Alphractal also notes that many lesser-known altcoins remain close to their launch or bear market prices, fueling skepticism around another altcoin rally. However, they warn investors not to overlook this possibility, stating that Altcoin Seasons can occur in both bull and bear markets, especially when supported by the right metrics.