Monetary Policy

Military tensions between the United States and Iran are escalating, driving oil prices up to $104 per barrel and bringing inflationary pressures back to the fore. The probability of Federal Reserve rate hikes has surged significantly, with U.S. stocks showing mixed performance, technology stocks under pressure, and energy stocks performing strongly. Bitcoin remains flat at $70,500, as markets reassess future funding costs and cash becomes the preferred choice for investors.

Bitcoin is under pressure near $70,791 as U.S. 5-year Treasury yields rise to a 9-month high, accompanied by inflation concerns triggered by the Iran conflict. Market capital is tilting toward cash holdings, weakening demand for Bitcoin. Analysts predict it may retest the $66,000 support level. With rising probability of rate hikes, market speculative demand for Bitcoin is diminishing, and overall risk assets are also facing pressure.

Delaware State legislators have proposed the Delaware Payment Stablecoin Act (SB19), which aims to establish a state-level regulatory framework for stablecoin issuance. The legislation requires issuers to obtain licenses, maintain 1:1 reserve ratios, and conduct regular information disclosures. The bill works in coordination with federal regulations, positioning stablecoins as payment instruments to attract digital asset projects to the state, potentially making Delaware a significant registration hub.

Citigroup has lowered its 12-month price targets for Bitcoin and Ethereum, signaling a shift toward caution on the cryptocurrency market's medium-term outlook, primarily due to slow progress in U.S. crypto asset legislation. Bitcoin's target was reduced from $143,000 to $112,000, while Ethereum's fell to $3,175. Despite upside potential remaining in the future, the lack of new policy catalysts suggests prices may oscillate within a range in the near term. Citigroup's assessment of Ethereum is more cautious, as it believes the asset is more significantly impacted by on-chain activity.

On March 25, Federal Reserve Governor Barr indicated that interest rates may need to remain stable to address inflation above the 2% target. He supported last week's decision to hold rates steady, stating that the Middle East situation and rising oil prices have increased economic uncertainty and heightened inflation risks.

Gate News Report: On March 25, CME "FedWatch" data showed that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates by 25 basis points in April is 9.3%, while the probability of maintaining rates unchanged is 90.7%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively raising rates by 25 basis points through June is 17.1%, with a probability of 80.2% for maintaining rates unchanged.

Jinse Finance reported that on March 25, according to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 9.3%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 90.7%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively raising interest rates by 25 basis points by June is 17.1%, with an 80.2% chance of rates remaining unchanged.

Gate News reported on March 24 that, according to the Washington Post, court records show that a senior deputy of U.S. Department of Justice official Jennie Pirro admitted during a closed-door hearing this month that the Department of Justice does not have evidence of misconduct in its criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell regarding renovation costs of the Federal Reserve building.

Jinse Finance reported that on March 25, according to the Washington Post, court records show that a senior deputy of U.S. Department of Justice official Jeannie Pirro admitted during a closed-door hearing this month that the Department of Justice has no evidence of misconduct in its criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Powell regarding the cost of renovations to the Federal Reserve Building.

NEW YORK — BNY Mellon CEO Robin Vince said the next phase of crypto adoption will depend on large financial institutions, arguing that banks are positioned to connect digital assets with the broader financial system. “We can act as a very effective bridge between the traditional finance and the dig

Gate News, on March 24, according to CME "FedWatch" data, on March 25, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates by 25 basis points in April is 8.3%, and the probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged is 91.7%.

European Central Bank Executive Board member Cipollone pointed out that stablecoins and tokenized deposits need to be anchored on tokenized central bank money for settlement to achieve scalability in tokenized financial markets. The DLT settlement project Pontes, expected to launch in 2026, and the Appia plan before 2028 will advance the construction of Europe's tokenized finance ecosystem. He warned of the risks of lacking a unified legal framework.

_The White House is reviewing two SEC proposals on digital assets and hedge fund disclosures, sent March 20 by Chairman Paul Atkins. Major regulatory shifts ahead._ The Securities and Exchange Commission has sent two proposed rules to the White House for review. One targets digital assets. The

# Woke up, and BTC pulled back to 70k. On the drive this morning, the radio was reporting that gold came under pressure as the Fed's March FOMC meeting failed to meet rate cut expectations, erasing all gains for the year so far. Recently, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have escalated, causing global capital markets to shake. According to classical narratives in traditional finance, geopolitical conflicts should push up gold prices—a logic rooted in gold's thousands of years of safe-haven attributes, long since becoming the instinctive reaction of market participants. Yet the market performance in March 2026 has shattered this stereotype: gold prices continued to decline, breaking through the critical support level of $4,500, while Bitcoin's decline was far smaller than traditional risk assets like stocks, displaying a certain characteristic of "relative safe-haven." This anomalous divergence, on the surface is a difference in asset price movements, but at a deeper level reflects a structural change long overlooked by the market: the investor base for gold and Bitcoin is undergoing a fundamental shift

Tokenized deposits and stablecoins need tokenized central bank money as a public settlement anchor if Europe’s tokenized financial markets are to scale, Piero Cipollone, a member of the European Central Bank’s Executive Board, said on Monday. Cipollone pointed to Pontes, the Eurosystem’s

ECB's Piero Cipollone stated that the EU's tokenization market needs to meet three conditions: developing a digital euro to stabilize transactions, collaborating with enterprises to ensure market demand, and coordinating legal regulations to address cross-border obstacles. Once implemented, it is expected to accelerate market growth and drive financial innovation and capital integration.

The latest draft of the CLARITY Act, being advanced by the U.S. Senate, prohibits stablecoin service platforms from offering yield to holders, which could impact the business models of stablecoins. While the draft allows certain rewards unrelated to account balances, the vague "economic equivalence" provision has sparked market concerns. The act is expected to enter the review stage in April and will have far-reaching implications for the crypto industry.