Geopolitics

As the Iran conflict enters its fourth week, markets are focusing on energy price trends and upcoming macroeconomic data releases from the US and Europe, including US construction spending and CPI, to assess their impact on consumer prices and the overall economy.

Iran's navy recently guided an Indian liquefied petroleum gas tanker safely through the Strait of Hormuz, a move indicating that Tehran is strengthening its control over the waterway and providing safe passage for friendly vessels, while creating potential threats to warn other ships.

Gate News: On March 21, DeFiance Capital CEO Arthur posted on X platform stating that in the short term, it is unlikely that Trump will back down or that the Middle East situation will cool down. Currently, the US and Israel continue to exert pressure on Iran. He pointed out that global supply chains may face further disruption in the coming weeks. According to previous reports by Axios, the Trump administration is considering occupying or blockading Iran's Kharg Island to force it to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Gate News reported that on March 21, a spokesperson for Iran's Armed Forces Hatam Al-Anbia Central Headquarters stated on the same day that Iran is taking major action in the Strait of Hormuz. The spokesperson emphasized that if Iran's infrastructure is attacked, Iran will strike more important and critical infrastructure of the United States and Israel.

Under Middle East geopolitical tensions, Bitcoin faced widespread selling pressure, particularly from retail holders. According to Glassnode data, the market is experiencing heavy selling pressure, with the accumulated trend score declining to 0.04, indicating that retail and small-to-medium investors are reducing their positions significantly. Despite this, Bitcoin's resilience against the decline has surprised market observers.

Bitcoin recently touched $75,000 but failed to sustain the level, pulling back to $74,000, reflecting cautious sentiment among investors ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Geopolitical risks and elevated energy prices have driven inflation higher, affecting market expectations for rate cuts and pushing the timeline for cuts to year-end. Technical analysis shows Bitcoin remains strong but has not confirmed a decisive breakout above the $75,000 level, with limited upside potential in the near term.

Affected by the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, Bitcoin fell nearly 5% this week. The S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and gold all declined in sync, while crude oil rose 7.3%. Over the past three months, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ETFs saw $64 billion in outflows, reaching historic highs. Bitcoin's net realized profits once accelerated but subsequently fell below $70,000.

Gold has declined to $4,500 since late February 2026 due to geopolitical conflicts, with global capital markets in turmoil, the S&P 500 down 5%. U.S. Treasury yields are rising, safe-haven assets are underperforming, and capital flows into money market funds have reached historic highs, indicating a market preference for "cash is king." Bitcoin is experiencing volatility and has not yet established itself as a safe-haven asset.

The risk from quantum computing to Bitcoin investors is real, but not every wallet is vulnerable — and those with the capacity to address this issue are taking proactive steps, according to Galaxy Digital analyst Will Owens. Owens believes that in theory, quantum computers could potentially break the cryptographic security that underpins Bitcoin.

Citigroup has lowered its target prices for Bitcoin and Ethereum, indicating a cautious outlook on the medium-term prospects of the crypto market. The Bitcoin target price has been reduced from $143,000 to $112,000, while Ethereum's has been lowered from $4,304 to $3,175, mainly due to slow progress in U.S. cryptocurrency legislation. Although there is still room for upward movement over the next year, the market may remain volatile in the short term, with Ethereum's valuation becoming more reliant on fundamentals.

Rising oil prices due to the US-Iran conflict are heightening inflation concerns, affecting investor behavior and prompting risk aversion in markets, especially cryptocurrencies. Policymakers remain cautious, suggesting potential delays in rate cuts amid worsening inflation forecasts from the IMF.

Gate News: On March 20, White House officials stated that despite reports of new troop movements and possible blockade of Hormuz Island, Trump has "no" plans to deploy military forces to Iran. The official added that the U.S. military "can seize Hormuz Island at any time," but currently maintains multiple options and will not disclose specific strategies.

Lawmakers and regulators are making progress on crypto policy, with a stablecoin yield proposal anticipated soon. The SEC and CFTC classified most crypto assets as non-securities, designating several as digital commodities.

Bitcoin declined to $70,000 due to steady interest rates from the Federal Reserve and rising energy prices, leading to $600 million in liquidations and increased market volatility, particularly affecting altcoins.

UBS Group raises 2026-2027 oil price forecasts due to Strait of Hormuz closure and Middle East conflict impacts. The 2026 oil price forecast is $86 per barrel, and 2027 is $80 per barrel, assuming the conflict will persist until early April.

Iran's Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei issued a statement ahead of Nowruz, reviewing military conflicts over the past year and condemning Israeli attacks on Iran. He emphasized that external economic pressure has failed to impact domestic stability, and called for developing a "resistance economy" while prioritizing cooperation with neighboring countries to enhance national resilience.

Gate News reported that on March 20, former U.S. President Trump issued a statement saying that Iran currently has no leader available for dialogue, and no one is willing to take on the leadership position in Iran.