Commodities (Crude Oil & Copper) & Macro Outlook

After the ceasefire, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been restricted by Iran to about 12 ships per day, and it has also been forced to collect transit fees, reforming it into new control rules. This makes the global energy market unstable and could potentially drive oil prices soaring. Through this move, Iran has cemented its wartime control, and there has been no sign of any change in the U.S. side’s intention to carry out military intervention, shocking and unsettling neighboring countries.

Gate News update, on April 9, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the IMF has lowered its global economic growth forecast due to the war in Iran.

Gate News message: On April 9, according to Arkham monitoring, the whale address “0x63c” had a crude oil short position with a position value that at one point reached as high as $30 million on Hyperliquid. Because the crude oil market funding rate is negative, the address can currently earn $388,000 per day in funding fee income, translating to an annualized funding fee income of up to $142 million. However, due to crude oil price fluctuations, the whale is currently down $2 million in unrealized losses.

Gate News message, April 9, according to market data, WTI crude oil futures (West Texas Intermediate) were up 6.00% intraday, trading at $100.08 per barrel.

Multiple European financial institutions predict that international oil prices will be difficult to fall back to pre–U.S.-Iran conflict levels in the short term; attention should be paid to the recovery of the Strait of Hormuz and Middle East infrastructure. Although ceasefire news has eased concerns about supply, oil prices may continue to fluctuate in the future.

After the Iran–Israel ceasefire, Bitcoin and gold both rose in sync before pulling back. From the perspective of geopolitical chess, we break down the deeper logic behind the price moves and the outlook that follows.