Commodities (Crude Oil & Copper) & Macro Outlook

According to China Customs, the country's refined oil exports in April totaled 3.119 million tons, down from 4.601 million tons in March.

According to China Customs, the country exported 15.866 million tons of refined oil during January-April 2026.

China's imports, calculated in U.S. dollars, surged 25.3% year-over-year in April, significantly outpacing the forecast of 15.2% and down from the previous month's 27.80% growth.

China's import year-on-year growth rate declined to 20.6% in April, down from 23.8% in the previous month, according to official trade data.

According to Bloomberg, New Zealand Resources Minister Shane Jones announced on May 9 that the country is considering establishing an overseas physical national fuel reserve, with candidate locations including Malaysia, Singapore, and South Korea. Jones cited New Zealand's insufficient domestic

According to MarineTraffic data, a Qatari liquefied natural gas carrier loaded at Ras Laffan port headed toward the Strait of Hormuz on May 9, navigating the northern shipping lane near Qeshm and Larak islands. The vessel's destination is listed as Karachi, Pakistan. If the ship successfully

According to German Airport Association CEO Ralph Baisel, via CCTV on May 10, aviation fuel shortages may lead to more flight cancellations, particularly affecting budget airlines, with ticket prices likely to rise further. Baisel stated that jet fuel prices have doubled since late February

According to Iranian lawmaker Jafar Poorkabani on May 9, media reports claiming Iran dumped oil into the sea due to full storage tanks are false. Poorkabani stated that satellite imagery showing oil slick near Khark Island reveals the pollution stems from an European tanker's discharge of oil

AZUL's Chief Financial Officer projects the Brazilian airline will face losses of 1 billion reais this year due to rising aviation fuel prices.

According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), WTI crude oil speculators reduced their net long positions by 2,220 contracts during the week ending May 5, bringing the total to 106,278 contracts.

According to ICE, as of the week ending May 5, Brent crude oil speculators reduced net long positions by 9,000 contracts to 374,205, while fuel oil speculators cut net long positions by 1,621 contracts to 59,651.

According to Jin10 Data, Shanghai gold futures fell 0.21% to 1,037 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver rose 0.09% to 19,864 yuan/kilogram, and SC crude oil gained 0.58% to 626 yuan/barrel as of 2:30 a.m. on May 9.

According to Jin10 Data, European Central Bank Governing Council member Nagel signaled on Friday heightened vigilance over rising inflation risks due to the Iran conflict. The ECB is prepared to take action as needed to prevent energy cost increases from spreading more broadly to prices. Nagel

The U.S. natural gas rig count fell to 129 for the week ending May 8, down by one from the previous week's 130 rigs.

As of May 8, the total number of U.S. oil drilling rigs stood at 410, up from 408 rigs in the prior week.

According to Fitch Ratings, Brent crude oil prices are forecast to maintain $100–$110 per barrel during May–July amid Strait of Hormuz blockade concerns. The rating agency projects prices will decline to $70 per barrel by September following the blockade

According to Goldman Sachs, the bank now expects U.S. liquefied natural gas supply this summer to be 5 million tons/year lower than previously forecast.

According to JPMorgan Chase analysts on May 8, U.S. gasoline prices are "entirely possible" to rise to $5 per gallon as refineries prioritize aviation fuel production at the expense of other petroleum products. The current price has already reached $4.55 per gallon. Analysts noted that refineries ar

According to Nomura Securities analysts on May 8, if Brent crude oil prices hold near $90 per barrel, the Bank of England could raise rates by 25 basis points in 2026. LSEG data shows markets have fully priced in two consecutive 25-basis-point rate hikes by the BoE before

According to Barclays, as of May 9, the bank favors a long position in the December 2026 ICE diesel-Brent crude oil crack spread (the price difference between diesel and Brent crude). The crack spread was trading at $33.4 per barrel at the time of