Despite the recent downturn in the cryptocurrency market, Pantera Capital founder and CEO Dan Morehead stated that truly long-term investors should look 10 years ahead.
On Tuesday at the Ondo Summit in New York, Dan Morehead said, "Over the next 10 years, Bitcoin's performance will significantly outperform gold, and that's obvious."
During the panel, Dan Morehead and another Wall Street heavyweight, Tom Lee, Chairman of Bitmine Immersion (BMNR), engaged in a deep discussion on topics such as inflation, crypto market cycles, and institutional positioning.
Using the long-term loss of purchasing power of currency as an example, Dan Morehead pointed out the structural issues of the fiat system. He said, "Fiat currency is depreciating at about 3% per year, and this is still called a stable currency. But if you look over a lifetime, it actually amounts to a 90% loss of purchasing power."
Therefore, he believes that investing in assets with a "fixed supply" is the most rational choice, which is also the shared advantage of gold and Bitcoin.
Regarding the competitive relationship between the two, Dan Morehead noted that asset performance often exhibits cyclical rotation: "Although gold has recently surged strongly, historical experience shows that their performances tend to take turns leading."
He also added that the amount of capital flowing into Bitcoin ETFs and gold ETFs over the past few years has been roughly equal, indicating a competitive relationship in asset allocation.
Tom Lee, who was also on the panel, questioned the "4-year cycle theory." He straightforwardly said, "I don't think this is a 4-year cycle," citing the continuous rise in on-chain activity on Ethereum and the rapid deleveraging during last October's market crash as examples. "The deleveraging during that market crash was even more severe than during the FTX collapse in November 2022," Tom Lee said, believing that this market correction has a different structure from the past.
Dan Morehead also refuted the idea that "the crypto market has formed a bubble," pointing out that major institutional investors still almost have no exposure to crypto assets:
"Those alternative investment firms managing hundreds of billions of dollars almost have no Bitcoin or crypto assets, and that’s exactly why I remain extremely bullish."
"When the median holdings of institutional investors are '0.0,' it’s impossible to form a bubble."
In Dan Morehead's view, the reasons that previously prevented institutional entry are gradually falling away. He mentioned, "The long list of reasons to say 'no' to cryptocurrencies in the past has now been almost entirely eliminated."
Dan Morehead believes that as custody services mature and regulations become clearer, blockchain assets—thanks to an average annual return of 80% over the past 12 years and their low correlation with the stock market—are becoming a rare asset class that combines high growth with risk diversification. He said, "There has never been a better quality asset class in history."
Looking ahead, Dan Morehead thinks that the true long-term catalyst may come from changes in national-level asset allocation. He described the possibility of a global "Bitcoin arms race," where both U.S. allies and geopolitical rivals might reconsider their reserve asset structures.
