On September 5, 2025, the Gate market analysis team released the latest macroeconomic forecast report. Despite uncertainties in the political environment, the overall economic outlook remains relatively stable compared to three months ago. Notably, due to the Eurozone's economic growth exceeding expectations in the first half of the year, we have raised this year's GDP forecast. The U.S. economy also demonstrates strong resilience. Although the latest data from China appears slightly weak, based on the good macro performance in the first half of 2025, we have still raised our growth expectations for China.

The data released this week from the Eurozone further confirms the trend of a continuously improving economy. The unemployment rate in July fell from 6.3% in June to 6.2%, while inflation levels remain close to the central bank's target. The preliminary inflation rate for August slightly rose to 2.1% from 2.0% in July, with core inflation remaining at 2.3%. This data will provide more support for the European Central Bank's decision-making next week. Considering this year's macroeconomic performance has exceeded expectations, trade policy uncertainties have decreased, and the decision-making body leans towards a hawkish stance, the market generally expects the European Central Bank to maintain interest rates. We believe that further rate cuts are unlikely in the near future.

The UK market experienced some fluctuations this week, mainly due to Prime Minister Keir Starmer's cabinet reshuffle, which could weaken the influence of Chancellor Rachel Reeves. Reeves represents the fiscal conservatives within the party. Previously, it was expected that the Labour Party would significantly tighten fiscal policy in the next budget to achieve fiscal goals, but the current outlook is not very optimistic, and there may be further sell-offs in the foreign exchange and bond markets before the next budget is announced.

In terms of politics, the focus next Monday will shift to the no-confidence vote facing French Prime Minister Borne. It is expected that Borne and her government will struggle to get through this crisis, as both far-right and far-left parties have stated they will oppose her minority government. Subsequently, President Macron may appoint a new Prime Minister or call for early elections. We expect political uncertainty in France to persist for some time, and there are unlikely to be significant improvements in public finances in the short term.

In terms of data release, the most closely watched information next week will be related to U.S. inflation. The August PPI, released on Wednesday, will reveal for the first time the cumulative impact of tariff-related costs, while the August CPI on Thursday will reflect how businesses are passing on increased costs to prices. Additionally, the preliminary consumer sentiment index for September from the University of Michigan, released on Friday, will also be closely monitored by the Federal Reserve. Furthermore, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the preliminary annual benchmark revision for non-farm employment data on Tuesday, covering data from April 2024 to March 2025, which is expected to be revised down by about 400,000.

For China, the market will focus on the export data to be released next Monday morning. Despite facing headwinds from tariffs, China's export performance has consistently maintained a stronger-than-expected momentum.

Risk Warning: The information contained in this article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance does not represent future trends.