Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

I really miss the days when ALPHA just launched an airdrop worth hundreds of dollars, and back then, there were trading competitions and wallet tasks. The rewards weren't competitive, but there were still many.
Currently, I still persist with ALPHA, primarily out of gratitude. After all, earning A7 income on ALPHA, as long as it doesn't cause me to lose money, I will keep going.
Here, I only support accounts with a single ID having 1WU to stick it out. If the basic score is 2 points, then you're starting at a disadvantage.

The S&P 500 keeps going up because earnings expectations keep going up.
Stocks are up 33% over the last year while 12-month forward earnings expectations are up 23%.
Earnings are still driving this bull market.

Handshake at the negotiating table, but no one dares to pass ships through the strait?
You think that because the US and Iran started talking, oil prices will fall and BTC will rally along with the US stocks?
Wrong.
The more headlines about peace and handshake, the more you should watch those lonely ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
Today the White House leaked: the special envoy is going to Islamabad to meet the Iranian Foreign Minister, officially opening the diplomatic phase. The prediction on Polymarket that talks could happen before the 29th soared to 56%.
Sounds like things are cooling down, right?
Look at another piece of news: the US Treasury Secretary also slammed the table—no extension for Iran oil waivers, sanctions remain in place.
Military + sanctions + diplomacy, a three-pronged approach.
This isn’t about easing restrictions; it’s like holding a knife to your neck and asking if you want to sit down for a cup of tea.
Then look at oil prices: Brent hovers around $100, not crashing.
And BTC: $77,000 fluctuates, down 1%, but it’s not panicking along with oil prices.
Why?
Because the market is now in an extremely tangled state—
Talking on the surface, but no pause in action; ships in the strait have dropped from the normal 115 ships a day to less than 9 now.
This isn’t a ceasefire; it’s economic suffocation.
The more lively the negotiations at the table, the colder the strait becomes. This isn’t a sign of peace; it’s panic disguised as news.
Many people see the words “negotiation” and their first reaction is: the crisis will be resolved, oil prices will fall, inflation will ease, US stocks will rise, and BTC should follow risk-on.
Naive.
Look at history—what truly drives oil prices down? It’s ships actually running, oil actually being transported.
And now? The Strait of Hormuz is almost at a standstill. Japan has started storing reserves and rerouting. This is self-rescue, not a solution.
Hardliners in Iran have outflanked moderates; negotiations seem more like stalling. The US is saying one thing, but increasing sanctions.
This isn’t about finding consensus; it’s about seeing who can hold out the longest.
And what about BTC?
BTC’s current position is very awkward.
If you say it’s a safe haven—gold has fallen, but it hasn’t risen. Oil prices soared, but BTC didn’t follow.
If you say it’s a risk asset—US stocks rose 1.5%, but BTC instead fell 1%.
It’s stuck in the middle, neither a spear nor a shield.
The real trading theme now isn’t “safe haven vs. risk,” but “energy flow disruption vs. diplomatic illusions.”
What are funds buying? Oil shipping, energy, military industry.
What are they selling? Airlines, logistics, high-growth stocks with overvaluations.
BTC isn’t in any camp. It’s now an emotional orphan.
If negotiations break down (45% probability):
Oil prices spike to 105-110, global risk-off, BTC will likely be used as a liquidity pump first, then someone will remember it might be “digital gold.” But that lag is enough to wipe you out.
If negotiations drag on (40% probability):
Oil prices hover at high levels, US stocks diverge, BTC remains confused, bouncing back and forth.
The only scenario where BTC benefits: oil prices plummet + dollar weakens + liquidity loosens. But which one does it look like now?
Don’t treat diplomatic news as a trading signal.
Before Hormuz ships return to 100 ships a day, all “handshakes” are just a pause before the second wave of oil price rises.
And BTC? It hasn’t decided which side it’s on yet.

Handshakes at the negotiating table, but no one dares to have ships pass through the strait?

You think that if the U.S. and Iran start talking, oil prices will fall, and BTC will ride the same wave as U.S. stocks and get hyped?

Wrong.

The more headlines about peace and handshakes you see flooding your feed, the more you should watch those few lonely ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

Today, the White House floated this: the special envoy is going to Islamabad to meet Iran’s foreign minister, officially kicking off the diplomatic phase. On Polymarket, the probability of talks happening before the 29th has surged to 56%.

Sounds like things are cooling down, right?

Then look at another headline: the U.S. Treasury Secretary also slammed the table—no extension on Iran’s oil waivers, sanctions staying in place.

Military + sanctions + diplomacy—three prongs at once.

This isn’t about loosening restrictions. It’s like putting a knife to your neck, then asking whether you want to sit down for a cup of tea.

And then you look at oil: Brent is crouching near $100—no crash.

Look at BTC: hovering around $77,000, down 1%. It isn’t panicking along with oil.

Why?

Because the market is in an extremely twisted state right now—

Talking on the surface, but action doesn’t stop; ships in the strait have dropped from the normal 115 per day to fewer than 9 now.

This isn’t a ceasefire—it’s economic suffocation.

The louder the negotiations get at the table, the colder the strait gets. This isn’t a signal of peace—it’s panic packaged as news.

A lot of people, the moment they see the words “negotiation” and “talks,” think: the crisis is resolved, oil prices will drop, inflation will ease, U.S. stocks will rise, and BTC should jump in with a risk-on push too.

Naive.

Look at history: what really pushes oil prices down? It’s whether ships are actually running, whether oil is actually being transported.

Now what? Hormuz is almost at a standstill. Even Japan has started storing reserves and rerouting. That’s self-rescue, not resolution.

When Iran’s hardliners overtake the pragmatists, negotiations look more like buying time. On the U.S. side, it’s saying “talks” while stepping up sanctions.

This isn’t about finding common ground—it’s about seeing who can’t hold out first.

So what about BTC?

BTC’s position is in an awkward place.

If you say it’s a safe-haven asset—gold fell, but it didn’t rise. Oil surged, but it didn’t follow.

If you say it’s a risk asset—U.S. stocks rose 1.5%, but BTC instead fell 1%.

It’s stuck in the middle, neither a spear nor a shield.

The real trading theme right now isn’t “safe haven vs. risk-on,” but “energy supply interruption vs. diplomatic illusion.”

What are funds buying? Oil shipping, energy, defense and military industry. What are they selling? Airlines, logistics, and high-valuation growth stocks.

BTC isn’t in any camp. It’s an emotional orphan right now.

If negotiations break down (45% probability):

Oil surges to 105-110; global risk-off hits. BTC will most likely be used first as a liquidity pump and then—only after the dust settles—someone will remember that it might be “digital gold.” But that lag is long enough to get you liquidated.

If negotiations drag on (40% probability):

Oil prices stay flat at high levels; U.S. stocks diverge; BTC remains confused, churning back and forth.

There’s only one scenario where BTC will feel good: oil crashes + the dollar weakens + liquidity loosens. But look at what’s happening now—does any of that look like the current setup?

Don’t treat diplomatic news as a trading signal.

Before Hormuz restores the 100 ships a day, all those “handshakes” are just a rest area before the second wave of oil-price upside.

And BTC? It still hasn’t decided which side it’s really on. #美伊谈判陷入僵局 $BTC $ETH

Are these people so greedy?
I created a wallet on Google and transferred over 2 million, then the money was gone.

Another one that directly rugs to zero, I haven't heard of this $peace before. It doesn't seem like a normally organically grown community meme.
He heavily bundles himself to pump the price, then at high levels, he finds a few KOLs to promote and spread the word.
Sol's current difficulty is very high. For those unknown memes, if you don't get on the train, it just keeps pumping itself, pulling itself up.
Once you get on, it will directly rug you, going straight to zero.
Now, the only thing left is to do some old memes.

Do these people have such huge hearts?
Once they set up a wallet on Google, they transferred over 2 million, and then the money was gone.

No matter what the market conditions are, there are always people who can make money.
If you compare yourself to others, you'll only fall into anxiety.
Personally, I think this kind of internal struggle is actually completely unnecessary.
It's better to relax and enjoy the weekend.

Thank you Elon Musk @elonmusk
Thanks to Dad Ma for sending creator rewards again!
These past two weeks, earnings increased by $60. I calculated that roughly 1 million reads yield about $2.10 in revenue.

Elon Musk is awesome! X is awesome! 🚀 #CreatorRewards

I bought this bags of $Asteroid a long time ago. That day, the news-driven momentum jumped straight from 500k to 4m. I went in with 2m, and I was also playing in HK at the same time. After a day, I found that it had been hammered down to a low of 300k. If this can be pulled back up and I can catch a wave to profit, that’ll be enough. Then I can make up for the regret of not launching on the mainnet of Asteroid.

Like someone like Maizong, if he posts like that, he’s definitely going to get criticized. But in reality, most of the mainstream “spin-offs” are just market behavior—it all depends on how strong and aggressive the whales are.

I used KuaiLian on my phone before, but it’s been so slow recently that I want to switch.
What do you all use for internet access?

a green week
Discipline kept it all green
Setups I took this week 👇

@Alima_dao88 Massive

If BTC surges again, the situation will become very clear. The main force has spent over twenty days vigorously pushing the price up. The upward cycle has been fully consumed. In a bear market environment, it is difficult to see continuous large gains for one or two months. Therefore, the probability of subsequent declines will greatly increase. Currently, this level has triggered a large number of short positions, causing many shorts to doubt themselves. At the same time, the funding rate has turned positive, which is a sign of positive market change. Although there may be short-term adjustments,

Is $ALGO ‌ about to pull a fast one on the bears?
Price action is looking interesting after that dip to $0.101. We just printed a solid green daily candle and reached $0.1084, showing there’s still some life in this trend.
If you look at the recent structure, we’ve got local resistance sitting right around $0.115. We need to clear that with some decent volume if we want to talk about testing the $0.127 high again.
The good news is we’ve established a higher low compared to that $0.079 bottom from last month. As long as we stay above $0.100, the bias stays slightly bullish for me.
Are you betting on a breakout here or do you think we are rejection at the next level?

#Gate13thAnniversaryLive

Thinking about jumping into $ORDI ‌ right now? You might want to look closer at this daily candle first.
After that massive pump to $10.70, things have cooled down significantly. We’ve been bleeding out for a few days, but the price is finally trying to find some footing around this $4.50 area.
The volume has dropped off quite a bit compared to the peak, which usually means the initial panic selling is slowing down. We're currently sitting on a potential support level, but we need to see a solid bounce soon or we might risk sliding back toward the $3.50 zone.
If we can hold $4.57 and get some fresh buying interest, we might see a relief rally back toward $5.50. Otherwise, it’s just a waiting game to see where the real floor is.
Who’s still holding this one from the top, or are you looking for an entry down here?

#TopCopyTradingScout

Is $ETH ‌ finally running out of steam or just catching its breath?
Look at the daily chart. We hit that $2,464 level and immediately got rejected. Now we’re sitting right around $2,316, and it feels like the market is undecided.
The support near $2,260 is holding for now, but the buying volume isn't exactly screaming "moon mission" yet. We are basically stuck in a range between that $2.2k floor and the recent high.
If we lose this current level, we might slide back toward $2,140 to find more buyers. But if the bulls can defend this spot and push past the recent red candles, we might see another attempt at $2,400 soon.
Waiting for a clear signal before doing anything aggressive. Are you guys long here or waiting for a deeper dip?

#US-IranTalksStall

Wait, did everyone miss that volume spike on $CFX ‌ ?
Price just bounced off that $0.048 floor like it was made of rubber. We’ve seen a solid recovery over the last few days, and right now, we’re staring at a local resistance around the $0.069 mark.
The bulls are definitely trying to flip the script here. If we can consolidate above $0.062, the next leg up could get interesting.
But keep an eye on that order book. There’s a bit of a wall building up, so don’t be surprised if we see a tiny pullback before the real move happens.
What’s your play here? Holding or waiting for the breakout?

#rsETHAttackUpdate

Is it just me, or does this feel like a massive trap?
$BTC ‌ Bitcoin is sitting at 77,627.right now, just a breath away from that recent 79.4k peak. Looking at the daily candles, we’ve had a solid run-up since the 65k floor, but the momentum is starting to look a bit heavy up here.
The volume is decent but not "blow off top" levels yet. We’re basically hovering in no man's land between the recent high and the mid-70s support. If we don't break 80k soon, I’m expecting a quick flush back toward 73k to trap the late longs before the next real leg up.
Staying cautious here. I’d rather miss the first 2% of a breakout than get caught in a 10% retracement.
What’s your move? Holding through the weekend or taking some off the table?

#CryptoMarketSeesVolatility

I’m seeing a lot of people chasing $SPK ‌ right now but the chart is telling a different story.
This pump from $0.019 up to $0.064 was absolutely insane, but we are finally seeing the inevitable cooldown. We’re down about 13% today and sitting at $0.044. That massive red wick at the top is a clear sign that the big players took their profits and left the retail crowd holding.
Volume is still high at over $33M, so there is interest, but look at the order book. It’s almost perfectly split 50/50. Nobody knows where this is going next. If we don’t find support at this $0.040 level, we could easily slide back down to $0.035 to fill that gap.
I’m staying away from the buy button until the dust settles. Catching a falling knife on a parabolic move like this is how accounts get blown.
Did you catch the top or are you waiting for the dip to buy in?

#Gate13thAnniversaryLive