$75k Bitcoin, do you still want to wait for a lower price?
Miner hash rate hits a record high, bipartisan lawmakers push the "Strategic Reserve Act" locking in for 20 years, but the price has fallen from $126k to $74k, a 40% retracement. ETF outflows totaled $1.46 billion in one week, Trump’s wallet transferred out 2,650 coins, and a whale dumped 8,000 coins in 2017—just now, RSI dropped to 26, entering oversold territory.
First look at the surface: blood in the streets, everyone calling the bottom.
In the past 24 hours, down 3%, more than halved from the high. Market cap dropped to $1.47 trillion, 24-hour trading volume $30 billion—volume-driven decline, brutal. Price broke below all upward trendlines, $80-85K became the ceiling, $72K is within reach.
First thing: ETF funds are retreating, but some are secretly accumulating.
Last week, Bitcoin spot ETF net outflows reached $1.46 billion, institutions are fleeing faster than anyone. Trump’s media wallet transferred 2,650 coins into exchanges, and a whale from 2017 dumped 8,000 coins again.
But SpaceX just disclosed holding 18,712 BTC, U.S. bipartisan lawmakers are pushing the “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act”—locking government-held BTC for at least 20 years.
Second thing: hash rate hits a new all-time high, miners are voting with their feet.
Price fell 40%, but the entire network’s hash power is still at a record high. Miners didn’t shut down, didn’t surrender, but are adding machines.
Historically, every time hash rate hits a new high and price drops sharply, it signals a mid-term bottom. 2020’s 312 event was like this, and the 2022 bear market was similar.
Third thing: RSI dropped to 26, extreme fear likely to reverse.
Over the past three years, RSI has fallen below 30 only a handful of times, each time followed by a 25%+ rebound in 1-3 months on average.
One side:
- Hash rate at a historic high, network security invincible
- Strategic Reserve Act advancing, national-level buying on the way
- RSI at 26, extremely oversold, strong rebound demand
- Post-halving supply halved, long-term deflation unchanged
The other side:
- ETF outflows of $1.46 billion in one week, institutions are fleeing
- Whales dumping, Trump’s wallet transferring to exchanges
- Macro hawks, U.S. bond yields at 4.7%, possible rate hikes
- Price breaking below all support levels, market confidence collapsing
Key level: $74,800, the last psychological defense line for bulls and bears.
Resistance above: $75,500 → $78,000 → $80k (the iron ceiling)
Support below: $72k (first line) → $70k → $65,000-$60k (extreme bottom zone)
Short-term players:
Wait for RSI to rebound from 26 above 30, or for the price to stabilize above 72K before considering. Rebound to around 78-80K, reduce positions or hedge. If it breaks below 72K, cut losses decisively by 5-8%.
Dollar-cost averaging players:
Start small positions in the $72K-$75K range, buy in batches. Add more if it breaks below 72K down to 60-70%. Go all-in near $60K. Target to reach $100K-$145K by end of 2026.
Die-hard hodlers:
Turn off the charts, do whatever you want. You’re buying a future global reserve asset, not next month’s meal money. Not selling at $126K, selling at $74K? Then your bull market was for nothing.
Bitcoin now is like late 2022 at $16K—
Everyone’s shouting “it’ll drop to $10K,” but you don’t dare to buy. When it rises back to $70K, you’ll regret not buying.
This time different? No, it’s the same every time.
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