Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

$55 HYPE, do you dare to buy the dip?

First look at the surface: bearish news bombarded, but the price hasn't collapsed.

In the past 7 days, down 20-25%, from ATH 75.5 back 26%, trading volume exploded to 1.1 billion USD. The candlestick shows: sharp rise then fall + volume expansion for correction, currently oscillating between 52-58, today’s small positive candle + moderate volume increase—this is called “healthy correction,” not trend reversal.

First thing: unlocking scared away the retail investors, but not the institutions.

On June 6, large token unlock, core contributors worth hundreds of millions of dollars, Wintermute-related addresses net short, Arthur Hayes publicly exited and added to the short.

But look carefully—

HYPE only dropped 25%, while other altcoins’ unlocks directly halved.

Grayscale launched a HYPE staking ETF, institutional funds are entering through compliant channels. USDC treasury cooperation, Hyperliquid Treasury continues to accumulate HYPE and execute buybacks.

Second thing: the buyback mechanism is the biggest trump card for HYPE.

Hyperliquid’s Assistance Fund automatically uses 97%-99% of trading fees to continuously buy HYPE on the open market. Over $1-1.3 billion has been repurchased, which is unique in the entire crypto space.

Third thing: a strange phenomenon appears on the technical side.

From 75.5 down to 55, a 26% correction, exactly hitting the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level + monthly VWAP. RSI enters oversold zone, MACD histogram narrows below zero line, price rebounds after touching Bollinger lower band.

Volume increased during the correction, indicating panic selling. Today’s small positive candle + volume gently expanding, a typical sign of a pre-oversold rebound.

Bull-bear showdown, see for yourself

One side:

Grayscale launched HYPE staking ETF, institutional channels open

Buyback mechanism has repurchased over $1 billion, ongoing deflation

Protocol annual revenue billions USD, real cash flow

Strong support at 52-54, technical oversold

Platform cleans up low-quality assets, ecosystem quality improves

Other side:

June 6 unlock selling pressure not fully digested

Arthur Hayes bearish + Wintermute shorting

BTC market unstable, if 60k breaks, altcoins will flood blood

Huge trapped positions above 75.5, short-term hard to break through

Key level 55, only 3 dollars away from the critical 52 line.

Resistance above: 58-60 → 65-68 → 75+ (ATH)

Support below: 52-54 → 48-50

Short-term traders:

Lightly try long around 55, or wait for a dip to 52-54. Stop loss below 51.5, target 60→65-68. Today’s small positive candle rebound, if volume breaks through 58, add to positions.

Swing traders:

DCA in three batches within 52-56, hold until fundamentals further confirm (high trading volume/OI + stable buyback scale). Target 75+.

Hedging risks:

If it falls below 52 with increased volume, cut losses and exit, wait for 48-50 to re-enter.

HYPE now is like SOL in 2023—

Everyone said “FTX legacy mess,” but it rose from 8 to 200, a 25x increase.

Every panic during unlocks is just the main players shaking out the weak hands.

Any project with real cash flow won’t be buried by the market.

The day 75 breaks through, you’ll realize:

It’s not HYPE that’s weak, it’s your constant doubt when falling, #Gate直通IPO认购SpaceX chasing high when rising.

Open for a few days my TG sync group:

The SpaceX IPO just finished these days
Where will the funds that didn't get allocated go?
Flow out to go long on US stocks, gold, BTC?
There probably won't be much of a rebound in the next couple of days
Already pre-positioned long on US stocks and gold
Forget about BTC, it's a bit slow to rise
Already went long on gold early this morning
Part of the US stock contracts have been opened.
Dory
#XAU #AVGO #MU

River's first round of World Cup voting is ending today (June 11th), so act fast.
Those still holding $RIVER and watching from the sidelines, get moving now.
This round of the top 32 is basically a free pass, blindly bet on the giants to secure a minimum guarantee.
If you don't stake and vote now, you won't get a single point of the 150k points from the first round, it's just free wool that you shouldn't miss.
Hurry up, don't wait until you miss out and start kicking yourself in the group, let's go!
@River4fun @RiverdotInc

$ID — 1H
Bias: Bullish / Long

Entry Zone: 0.0300 – 0.0303
TP1: 0.0315
TP2: 0.0330
TP3: 0.0350
Stop Loss: 0.0288

Setup Overview:
Price is holding above key intraday support and continuing to print higher lows, signaling a healthy bullish structure. Momentum remains strong with buyers defending pullbacks, suggesting continuation toward higher resistance levels. A clean hold of the entry zone keeps the upside targets in play.

Not financial advice. Always manage risk and position size accordingly.#MyGateTradeStory #USMayCPIHits3YearHigh

Gold falls below 4100: No more gains even in war?

War has arrived, and gold has collapsed.

You read that right.

The US-Iran conflict has escalated fully, Trump is bombing while shouting "Bombing will stop soon." Logically, in chaotic times, buy gold, right?

But what’s the result? Spot gold today directly broke through $4100, dropping as low as $4058, hitting a seven-month low. From nearly 4900 at the April high, it’s fallen over $800 in one go.

War not rising prices but falling? This script doesn’t add up.

It’s not that gold is malfunctioning; it’s that the safe-haven logic is outdated.

In the past, whenever the Middle East flared up, gold would soar. Why? Because war prints money, inflation rises, and the dollar falls.

But this time, it’s different.

Why isn’t the market afraid? Because Trump’s script is very clear: “Bombing will end soon.” Airstrikes are just a show; de-escalation is the goal. Everyone is betting that the conflict won’t spiral out of control, oil prices haven’t surged, and panic hasn’t spread.

Even more intense is that US CPI is as high as 4.2%, confirming high inflation. The Fed is watching this number and can only continue tightening.

A stronger dollar + rising real interest rates = a death sentence for gold.

“Gold doesn’t produce children, but US bonds generate interest. When real interest rates keep climbing, who still clings to that unproductive rock?”

“Before, ‘gunfire sounds, gold rises ten thousand’; now it’s ‘gunfire sounds, the dollar laughs.’”

So what’s the main reason suppressing gold prices?

It’s a strong dollar, rising real interest rates, and a tightening cycle. The expectation of conflict de-escalation is just a catalyst; the real killer is—holding cash earning 5% interest, isn’t that more appealing than betting on gold’s rise or fall?

Bitcoin players, don’t laugh. When gold falls, you think it’s good news for BTC? Naive.

The same logic is killing BTC:

Tightening → dollar strength → risk assets all collapse. BTC claims to be “digital gold,” but it’s falling even worse than gold.

Why? Because BTC doesn’t even have that “safe-haven inertia” gold has. Institutions see BTC as a high-volatility tech stock. When rate hike expectations come, the first to be dumped is you.

“Gold is the bottom line of safe assets, BTC is the top line of risk assets. If the bottom line breaks, can the top line survive?”

“Times have changed. Now, the Fed’s words #Gate直通IPO认购SpaceX are more deadly than bombs.”

# Blue V mutual follow, let's keep going ✨ The last round of mutual follows directly gained over 200 Blue V friends, so exciting! Currently, the account has 5,255 Blue V followers, aiming for 10,000! Friends who want to mutual follow, leave a message in the comment area, and I will follow back everyone I see.

I chose to go all-in on gold
Here, at a small level, there's a reversal structure (rebound correction)
Plan: 4080 for the initial position
4050 for adding more
Watching 4168-4208
But need to observe around 4110, I am considering moving up the cost to take the loss
$XAU

Crypto Market Review
On the macro front, mostly neutral suppression:
U.S. May CPI year-over-year 4.2%, month-over-month 0.5%, in line with expectations; core CPI month-over-month 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%. This is not a major bearish signal for the market, but also not a sign of significant easing.
Previously, the market priced in about a 98% probability that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates unchanged on June 17, but there remains a 25 basis point rate hike risk before the end of the year.
Data shows that on June 10, U.S. spot BTC ETFs experienced net outflows of approximately $213.9 million, and ETH ETFs saw net outflows of about $35.5 million.
Additionally, Fold Holdings disclosed the sale of about $45 million worth of BTC to repay collateral loans and release operational funds, as some BTC treasury companies prioritize asset-liability management defense in weak markets.
On the technical side: rebounds are possible, but should not be mistaken for reversals.
$BTC Small-scale rebounds are obvious, but larger-scale reversals have not yet occurred. Currently, more like a correction after stopping around $60k, with the current price around $62.6k–$62.8k.
Short-term, it has been pulled up from the demand zone around $60.8k/$61k.
There is a rebound structure at the small cycle level, but on the 4-hour and daily charts, it remains in a low-position oscillation correction after a decline.
To truly turn bullish, it needs to stabilize above $64k–$64.5k; otherwise, $63k–$64.5k is more likely to become a zone for a rebound short or liquidity sweep.
$ETH Weaker than BTC, the rebound more resembles short covering.
Currently around $1,655, rebounding from about $1,600 in the short term, but on the 4-hour chart, it is still below $1,700–$1,720.
If ETH cannot effectively reclaim $1,700–$1,720, it may return to test around $1,600, $1,550, or even $1,500 for a second test.

Crypto Market Review
Macroeconomic aspect, mildly neutral suppression:
US May CPI year-over-year 4.2%, month-over-month 0.5%, in line with expectations; core CPI month-over-month 0.2%, below the expected 0.3%. This is not a major bearish signal for the market, but also not a sign of significant easing.
The market previously priced in about a 98% probability that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates unchanged on June 17, but there remains a 25 basis point rate hike risk before the end of the year.
Data shows that on June 10, US spot BTC ETF net outflows were approximately $213.9 million, ETH ETF net outflows about $35.5 million.
Additionally, Fold Holdings disclosed the sale of about $45 million worth of BTC to repay mortgages and release operational funds, with some BTC treasury companies prioritizing asset-liability management defense in weak markets.
Technical perspective: rebounds are possible, but should not be mistaken for reversals
$BTC Small-scale rebounds are obvious, but larger-scale reversals have not yet occurred. Currently, more like a correction after stopping around $60k, with the current price around $62.6k–$62.8k.
Short-term, it has been pulled up from the demand zone around $60.8k/$61k.
There is a rebound structure indicating a minor reversal on small cycles, but the 4-hour and daily charts are still in low-position oscillation correction after a downtrend.
To truly turn bullish, it needs to stabilize above $64k–$64.5k; otherwise, $63k–$64.5k is more likely to become a zone for short-term rebounds or liquidity sweeps.
$ETH Weaker than BTC, the rebound more resembles short covering, currently around $1,655.
Short-term, it has rebounded from around $1,600, but the 4-hour chart remains below $1,700–$1,720.
If ETH cannot effectively reclaim $1,700–$1,720, it may return to test around $1,600, $1,550, or even $1,500 for a second test.

Listen, the bombing has been going on for three days.

From June 8 to 10, the U.S. military conducted consecutive airstrikes on Iran. Trump announced: "No deal signed, bomb it to smithereens."

Iran directly closed the Strait of Hormuz—"Any ship attempting to pass is a target."

Oil prices are going crazy. In May, the CPI energy component year-over-year +23.5%. Do you think this is just news? No, this is a knife directly stabbing into your holdings.

Now, answer honestly:

When conflicts escalate, do you panic and sell off wildly? Or pretend to be dead and do nothing? Or secretly hedge?

Don’t be stubborn. Most people’s true reaction is: pee first, ask later, then cut losses.

Geopolitical risk is not a black swan, but a gray rhinoceros. From Iran’s declaration in April of “permanent control of the strait” to actual fighting in June, this path took two months. You had enough time to prepare, but you did nothing.

Why? Because you thought “it won’t happen.” Until missiles really fall, oil prices break $100, and your altcoins get halved.

Today, no fluff, straight to the point: three weapons for managing positions as geopolitical conflicts escalate.

First: Reduce positions (for the timid, but not shameful)

Applicable scenario: You hold high-leverage contracts, pure emotional altcoins, or junk coins bought on “group signals.”

Action: No hesitation, cut in half. Keep cash.

“In the face of geopolitics, technical analysis is just fortune-telling. Your support lines, missiles don’t recognize them.”

You’re not Buffett, with unlimited bullets. When the situation worsens, cash isn’t trash—it’s oxygen.

Second: Hedge (for the tough, but you need to understand tools)

Applicable scenario: You hold large positions in BTC/ETH, don’t want to sell, but fear a crash.

Tools:

Go long on crude oil/energy ETFs (like USO, XLE)

Logic: Oil prices are short-term negatively correlated with BTC (inflation → rate hikes → BTC drops). When oil prices rise, you profit from oil; when BTC falls, your losses are hedged.

After this round of airstrikes, WTI has surged to $95. Have you opened a position?

Buy VIX call options or long volatility products (like UVXY)

Geopolitical turmoil, volatility will spike. But note, these tend to decay quickly, suitable only for short-term.

Short BTC futures or buy put options

Most direct. But don’t go all-in short—this can be deadly. Hedge ratio recommended: 10-20% of your position.

“Hedging isn’t cowardice; it’s admitting you can’t see clearly. When you’re unsure, don’t gamble—lock in your risk.”

Third: Do nothing (faith players, but most dangerous)

Applicable scenario: You hold spot BTC, with a small position, and can hold for over three years.

Logic: Geopolitical crises will eventually pass. Every Middle East conflict causes short-term dips in BTC, but after six months, it’s often higher. For example, the Soleimani event in 2020, BTC dropped 15% initially, then doubled in three months.

But the premise is:

You don’t use leverage

You don’t go all-in

You don’t panic sell

“The premise of doing nothing is that you can truly do nothing. Not trembling and lying to yourself that you’re HODLing.”

The most dangerous are those pretending to do nothing—

Unable to sleep at night, watching the charts by day, selling on every rebound. These people are worse than the first type.

Now, where are we in the situation?

Both US and Iran are talking past each other: Trump says “Iran requests a ceasefire,” Iran says “That’s pure fabrication.”

What does this mean? No one wants a full-scale war, but no one wants to admit defeat first. So low-intensity conflicts become the norm—occasional bombings, occasional blockades, oil prices hovering high, CPI stubbornly high, the Fed afraid to cut rates.

For BTC, this means: volatility, downward drift, occasional dips. The engine of a bull market (rate cuts) is being held back by this geopolitical foot on the brake.

Final operational advice (something you can do today):

Check your leverage ratio. Over 3x? Reduce immediately. Under geopolitical risk, an unexpected news can blow you up.

Set aside 5-10% of your holdings to open a long position on crude oil or buy BTC put options. Not for profit, but to sleep well at night.

Keep more than 20% of your USDT on hand. When prices truly hit your psychological level, you have bullets to buy the dip; if not, #Gate直通IPO认购SpaceX you don’t lose anything.

#美国5月CPI创三年新高
Currently, the biggest factors affecting cryptocurrencies, gold, and U.S. stocks are interest rate hikes.
This involves market liquidity issues.
Tonight's CPI data of 4.2% met expectations, so the impact is minimal.
Meeting expectations essentially means there were no surprises.
It did not exceed expectations.
There was neither a significant negative impact nor a reversal into a positive turning point.
Therefore, the impact is small.
But the market's negative environment due to rate hikes is still ongoing.
Compared to the day when non-farm payroll data was released, which had a 42% chance of rate hikes this year,
the probability of rate hikes after today's CPI release has increased to 60-70%.
The probability of a rate hike around September is about 45%; around October, about 60%; and at least one rate hike by the end of the year is roughly 70%–75%. (The chart shows CME's un-updated rate hike probability forecast table.)
I am waiting for the speech by Waller at 2:30 a.m. on the 18th to see what signals Waller will send, and we will continue to track and update accordingly.
June will definitely maintain the current interest rate.
The upcoming market trend will still be influenced by the current negative market sentiment, combined with technical and emotional analysis.
Look for opportunities for a rebound after an acceleration.
Because if Waller's comments are dovish, the market will rise immediately (a turning point appears).
If they are hawkish, the market will fall then rise again (negative factors are exhausted, expectations are fulfilled).
So, before the 18th, patiently wait for opportunities to take profits on short positions and set up for swing long positions to catch rebounds. (U.S. stocks are synchronized.)
That's all for today, more next time!
#$BTC $ETH

Predicting the market's roller coaster
Leading by 27 points in the first half, up to 29 points
Then suddenly, they're only ahead by 1 point, and miss two free throws
Finally, they get blocked and lose with a historic buzzer-beater.
This prediction that the Spurs would win probably wanted to cut people!!😡😡😡
#NBA

Have you ever seen a company that hasn’t stabilized its profitability yet—while its valuation completely crushes the entire crypto industry?
SpaceX, with the code name SPCX, is listed on NASDAQ.
The biggest IPO in history: $1.75 trillion.
At $135 per share, raising $75 billion—oversubscribed by 4 times. Middle Eastern tycoons directly threw down orders worth tens of billions of dollars.
Even the retail allocation was given 30%, three times the usual amount.
Do you think this is Elon Musk sending red envelopes to retail investors? Too naive.
On the night before the listing, Senator Warren wrote to the SEC, requesting a delay of the review.
Why? Passive funds are forced to take delivery at high prices, forming systemic risk.
Put it in plain language: SpaceX is too expensive, index funds have to buy—and once they buy, it’s basically propping up Musk’s stock.
Under the new rules, SPCX can be included in the NASDAQ 100 index within 15 days of listing. By then, $7 billion in passive buying will come in and crush everything like a bulldozer.
Who’s selling? Early investors and Musk’s friends. Who’s buying? 401(k) pension funds and passive funds.
So, is $1.75 trillion really worth it?
Let’s break it down.
SpaceX has two core engines: Starlink + rockets.
Starlink, global low-Earth-orbit satellite internet—currently has more than 5 million subscribers, with estimated annual revenue of $6–7 billion. The upside is huge, but on the ground, 5G and Amazon’s Project Kuiper are fighting for business.
Rockets: Falcon 9 is mature, while Starship is still blowing up. The commercial launch market is only at the hundred-billion level each year, with SpaceX taking the lion’s share—but the ceiling is clearly visible.
The real story is: monopolistic-level low-Earth-orbit infrastructure + the dream of future Mars colonization.
But can dreams really justify $1.75 trillion? At its peak, Tesla was about the same number—except it had nearly 2 million cars delivered per year, with real profits.
Even Musk has said: “The biggest risk for SpaceX is bankruptcy.”
What can crypto players see in all this?
A tokenized stocks track: in half a year, market cap surged 147%, reaching $5.5 billion. After SPCX’s listing, fragmented, on-chain tokenized SpaceX stock will only get even hotter.
Can’t afford 100 shares? No problem—buy 0.1 SPCX token on-chain and feel the illusion of being a Musk shareholder.
If SpaceX’s Starship can’t be commercialized for a long time, if Starlink user growth falls short of expectations, if Warren’s opposition really causes trouble… then this $1.75 trillion might become the next “listing at the peak” textbook example.

Have you ever seen a company that hasn't yet achieved stable profitability, but its valuation blows away the entire crypto world?

SpaceX, with the ticker SPCX, is listed on NASDAQ.

The largest IPO in history: $1.75 trillion.

$135 per share, raising $75 billion, oversubscribed by 4 times—Middle Eastern tycoons directly dropping billions of dollars to buy in.

Even retail investor quotas were given 30%, three times the usual amount.

Do you think Elon Musk is giving retail investors red envelopes? That's too naive.

On the night before listing, Senator Warren wrote a letter to the SEC: requesting a delay in review.

What's the reason? Passive funds are forced to buy at high prices, creating systemic risk.

To put it plainly: SpaceX is too expensive, index funds have to buy, and buying is essentially boosting Musk’s stock.

According to new rules, SPCX can be included in the NASDAQ 100 index within 15 days of listing. At that time, $7 billion in passive buying will come in like a bulldozer.

Who is selling? Early investors and Musk’s friends. Who is buying? 401(k) pension funds and passive funds.

So, is the $1.75 trillion valuation worth it?

Let's break it down.

SpaceX’s two core businesses: Starlink + rockets.

Starlink, global low-earth orbit satellite internet, currently has over 5 million subscribers, with annual revenue estimated at $6-7 billion. The potential is huge, but ground-based 5G and Amazon’s Project Kuiper are competing for business.

Rockets, Falcon 9 is mature, Starship is still exploding. The commercial launch market is only a hundred billion dollars a year, with SpaceX holding the majority, but the ceiling is visible to the naked eye.

The real story is: a monopoly on low-earth orbit infrastructure + the dream of future Mars colonization.

But can a dream support a $1.75 trillion valuation? Tesla’s peak was about this number, and they deliver nearly 2 million cars a year with real profits.

Elon Musk himself said: “The biggest risk for SpaceX is bankruptcy.”

What can crypto players see from this?

Tokenized stocks, which have increased 147% in market cap over half a year, reaching $5.5 billion. After SPCX’s listing, on-chain fragmented SpaceX stocks will only become more popular.

You can't afford 100 shares? No problem, buy 0.1 SPCX tokens on-chain and get a feel for what it’s like to be a Musk shareholder.

If SpaceX’s Starship can’t be commercialized soon, if Starlink user growth falls short of expectations, if Warren’s opposition really causes trouble… this $1.75 trillion might just become the next “listing #Gate直通IPO认购SpaceX at the peak” textbook.

so big ~wataa🤤🤤

They look like two different people
On the importance of hairstyle
A hairstyle can change a person

Amazing! Advanced hunters often appear in the form of prey

Recently, the market has been so volatile that I can't stomach it, just a slight dip and the big players execute precise dumps,
Buying knockoff tokens risks going to zero, opening futures contracts risks getting liquidated, it's really exhausting.
Just happened to see @TermMaxFi promoting their Alpha Market, which focuses on leverage that won't be liquidated.
Looking into it, it's basically the same as options, the buyer can only lose the premium, buy Call if bullish, buy Put if bearish.
But on the other hand, being able to package options into contracts that won't blow up to counter high-leverage gambling,
This product idea is actually quite clear, at least I don't have to set an alarm to watch the market while sleeping.
Here's the link:
Planning to buy some self-defense options, but I don't know if the liquidity and premiums of these options are still favorable.
Going to take a look first, anyway, losing the premium is just that small, better than being wiped out by a dip.
@TermMaxFi #TermMax #DeFiRenaissance