$63,000 Bitcoin, are you scared?
First look at the surface: terrible, indeed terrible.
It has fallen 21% in the past month, halved from the high point. ETF net outflows continue, the Federal Reserve still plans to raise interest rates, Japan's interest rates are at a 31-year high. But look at the chart—$59k has not broken down, $61k has held, the 200-week moving average forms a strong bottom around $61k. The candlestick chart shows: the price touched the 9-year long-term upward trend line, RSI is hovering at low levels, volume isn't exploding but also not shrinking.
First thing: ETF net outflows, but BlackRock is still increasing their holdings.
Spot ETFs have been net outflowing for the past few days, with a $22.5 million outflow on June 11.
But have you noticed—outflows are getting smaller. And BlackRock just submitted the final application for a Bitcoin income ETF, expected to launch next week.
Second thing: The Extreme Fear Index is at 9, which is my favorite signal from 10 years of experience.
Fear & Greed Index 9-17, extreme fear.
In March 2020, during the pandemic crash, the index dropped below 10, BTC fell from $10k to $3,800.
What happened afterward? A year later, it rose to $60k.
In May 2021, the 519 event, the index dropped to 10, BTC fell from $65k to $29k.
What happened afterward? Six months later, it rose to $69k.
In 2022, after the FTX collapse, the index dropped to 10, BTC fell from $21k to $15k.
What happened afterward? A year later, it rose to $70k.
Every time the fear index hits extreme fear, it’s at the bottom zone.
Third thing: A historic technical signal has appeared.
Daily chart: BTC touched the 9-year long-term upward trend line. You read that right, 9 years.
2017, 2020, 2024—each time retracing this line, it’s the start of a bull market.
As long as $61k holds, the initial rebound target is $65k, then $68,000-$70k.
But don’t forget—the FOMC meeting next week (June 16-17) is a life-or-death decision.
Bull-bear showdown, you decide.
One side:
Support from the 9-year long-term trend line, 100% success rate in history
Extreme fear index at 9, bottom signal accumulating
Halving effect still in play, supply shock delayed but not absent
Institutions like BlackRock continue to accumulate
Price around $54k, still above support, on-chain health is good
The other side:
May CPI year-over-year 4.2%, inflation stickiness exceeds expectations
The Fed may hike rates or signal hawkish stance next week
ETF short-term net outflows, sentiment weak
Japan’s rate hikes + geopolitical pressures
Key level at $63,400, just $2,400 away from the critical $61,000 line.
Resistance above: $64,000-$66,000 → $68,000-$70k → $75,000
Support below: $61,000-$62,500 (strong bottom) → $59,800-$60k → $53,000-$55,000 (extreme)
Short-term traders:
Buy in batches at $61,000-$62,500, stop-loss at $59,500. First target $65,000, second target $67,000-$68,000. Leverage controlled within 3x, position no more than 20%. Reduce holdings before next week’s FOMC to hedge risks.
Mid-to-long-term HODL:
Current price or dip back to $58,000-$60,000 for batch accumulation. Hold until $100k+.
Use spare funds, avoid leverage.
Long-term believers:
DCA on dips. This is your 4th experience with a “50% retracement.” The first 3 times, you regretted not buying enough. Don’t repeat that mistake this time.
Risk management:
Always keep 40% cash
Stop-loss is not just for show; if it breaks below $60,000, reduce your position
Pay attention to next week’s FOMC results
Don’t be scared off by “extreme fear,” nor go all-in impulsively trying to “bottom-fish”
Bitcoin now is just like March 2020—during the pandemic crash, everyone thought “the world is ending, Bitcoin is going to zero.”
And what was the result?
$3,800, the lowest point of that bull run.
Bull markets aren’t without corrections, but every 50% retracement makes you think “this is the bear market.”
At $61,000, you panic-sell, whales scoop up the chips.
By the time you realize
#我的Gate交易时刻 it, it’s already $70,000.
