200,000 people liquidated, $1.4 billion wiped out—Bitcoin has “died” twice. With delivery today, which side are you betting on?
“Bitcoin is dead.”
That’s not what I said. That’s what the Rainbow Chart model says.
On June 24, Bitcoin fell for the second time in history into the Rainbow Chart’s lowest purple zone—the model’s original label is “Bitcoin is Dead.”
The name is really well chosen. Scary enough.
So what happens next? Yesterday, the intraday low smashed down to $58,030. In the early hours today, BTC lost the key $60,000 support on short-term timeframes, dipping to the $59,000 level.
In 24 hours, over 200,000 people were liquidated—$1.458 billion vanished into thin air. Long liquidations accounted for $1.16 billion.
Fear and Greed Index? 24—Extreme Fear.
It’s all bearish. It’s all panic. It’s all signals to “run.”
But let me ask you one question—
If this “Bitcoin is dead” zone has historically shown up every time as a cycle-level bottom, what about this time?
In the 2018 bear market bottom, the Ahr999 indicator dropped to 0.24. In March 2020’s “3.16 flash crash,” it was 0.27. After the 2022 FTX implosion, it was also 0.27.
What’s Ahr999 today? 0.285.
Below 0.3—this is an extremely rare “severely undervalued” zone.
The last time this number appeared was on February 6, at 0.27. Before that? Every time—only when the market was at its most fearful and most desperate.
The question now is: Will history repeat itself this time?
① What’s happening today? — “Settlement Day” for billion-dollar options
On Deribit, $10.5 billion in quarterly options expire today, accounting for 37% of all outstanding Bitcoin options open interest.
Of that, about $8.6 billion is out of the money.
What does that mean?
It means a large number of high-leverage long bets below $60,000 have already turned into worthless paper. It also means shorts have a strong incentive to push the price down before settlement, so more options expire worthless.
The max pain price is around $74,000. And BTC is currently below $60,000.
The battle logic on the $60,000 whole-number level is very clear—shorts suppress the price, bulls defend it. Today’s settlement is the endgame of this battle.
② What are institutions doing? — Running faster than rabbits
Over the past 30 days, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a cumulative net outflow of $6.4 billion, setting the biggest monthly net outflow since records began.
ETFs have had net outflows for six consecutive weeks, the longest redemption cycle since they were listed. Globally, annual cumulative fund flows for Bitcoin ETPs turned negative for the first time since November 2023.
For all of 2026, total institutional net inflows across all channels are only about $12 billion—down roughly 80% from $60 billion for all of 2025.
BlackRock’s IBIT saw a single-day outflow of $239 million on June 24. In June alone, BlackRock reduced its Bitcoin exposure by about $1.75 billion.
③ Miners are selling too — 20% are already in the red
About 20% of Bitcoin miners are currently operating at a loss. The industry breakeven point is around $100,000 per coin. Bitcoin is now below $60,000.
This inverted situation has lasted for five months.
This month, miners have sold more than $2 billion worth of Bitcoin—the fastest pace in over a year.
Retail is cutting losses, institutions are fleeing, and miners are dumping.
So tell me—can this market still be “fine”?
④ But every story has two sides
What are the whales doing?
On-chain data shows that just yesterday alone, whale holders—those controlling at least 0.1% of the total Bitcoin supply—added 7,130 Bitcoin, worth about $436 million.
Retail is panic-selling to cut losses. Whales are quietly taking the other side and absorbing.
Who is right or wrong? History will tell you.
After settlement, what then?
Before settlement, shorts have a strong incentive to suppress the price—but after settlement, the suppressing force disappears.
Historical data shows that after quarterly settlements, one-sided moves often follow once the “volatility cage” is removed.
So today is not the endpoint. Today is the turning point.
⑤ Two scenarios—which one will you choose?
Scenario 1: After settlement, buy-side follow-through is strong, and Q3 rebounds to start.
Historically, the Rainbow Chart’s “dead” zone corresponds to cycle bottoms. If Ahr999 drops below 0.3, that’s an extreme undervaluation signal. Whales are quietly accumulating. If selling pressure is fully released after settlement and buying starts to step in—$60,000 is the “iron bottom” of this leg down.
Scenario 2: After settlement, buy-side strength is weak, and Q3 continues to probe lower.
ETFs have net outflows for six straight weeks, and macro expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes are heating up. With 20% of miners in losses, it could trigger a miner capitulation wave—adding further sell pressure. Analysts point out that the true macro price bottom may not be confirmed until Q3 or Q4 of 2026. If risk appetite deteriorates further, Bitcoin still can’t rule out a drop toward $50,000.
Do you position before settlement, or wait to confirm direction after settlement?
If you’re a medium- to long-term investor—Fear and Greed Index at 24, Ahr999 breaking 0.3, Rainbow Chart “dead.” Historically, this position often corresponds to a phase bottom. Now isn’t the time to cut losses—it’s the time to accumulate in batches. But don’t go all-in. Split into 3–4 batches, adding one every time the price drops by 5%. The bottom is a range, not a single point.
If you’re a short-term trader—Wait until settlement is done. If the price holds above $60,000 and breaks out with volume, follow on the right side and go long. If it continues to break down, keep waiting.
But there’s one iron rule—
Don’t cut losses when you’re in extreme fear, and don’t chase highs when there’s FOMO.
“Bitcoin ‘has died’ many times. But every time it ‘dies,’ it comes back to life—and it comes back better.”
“Retail is in panic, whales are taking the bids. If you don’t already know who’s making money, then think again.”
#0成本拿2股SK海力士 #美光市值超越Meta跻身全美前十 $BTC $ETH $SOL 
