A $61,500 BTC, do you dare to buy the dip?
First, look at the surface: mixed bullish and bearish news, but the price went up.
It rose 3% in the past week, and the start of July saw a direct move from 58k to 62k+. The K-line tells you: at this 61k level, it failed to hold four times before, and now it's back. Every community is shouting "the bull market is back," but seasoned investors take one look at the weekly chart and their hands start shaking.
First thing: Trump made $1.4 billion, but it has nothing to do with you.
The former president disclosed at least $1.4 billion in crypto gains for 2025, riding a pro-crypto narrative that did boost market sentiment.
But think carefully:
What does Trump making $1.4 billion have to do with your account recovering?
Big names hype, retail investors rush in to buy, then whales slowly offload at the top—this script has played out in crypto for ten years, and someone falls for it every time. He’s calling for a rally now, but that doesn’t mean he won’t dump tomorrow.
Second thing: ETF outflows then inflows—who is lying?
On July 1, there was a single-day outflow of $200-300 million, led by BlackRock’s IBIT.
On July 2, a single-day inflow of $200 million, with bulls cheering "reversal."
Over two days combined, there’s still a net outflow of $58k.
What are institutions doing? Repositioning, not bottom-fishing.
Look at the whole of June—persistent net ETF outflows, and this trend hasn’t changed. A single-day inflow is like a bounce candle in a bear market: a brief surge, then the drop continues.
Retail sees "inflow of $200 million, bull market launched," while institutions see "liquidity is good enough, I’ll sell a bit more."
Third thing: A dangerous signal appeared on the technical side.
58k was indeed a strong support, and the bounce to 61k was impressive.
But open your weekly chart and look:
The price is still below the 200-day moving average—this is the first time in four years it has broken below and hasn’t recovered
All intermediate moving averages are pressing down, with the 20/50/100/200 EMA all showing sell signals
Lower highs + lower lows—this structure hasn’t changed
This is not a trend reversal; it’s a bear market rally.
The battle between bulls and bears—you decide
On one side:
58k held, and the short-term bounce structure is intact
Trump’s pro-crypto narrative boosts sentiment
A single-day ETF inflow of $200 million gives bulls ammunition
Capital returning at the start of July, improving liquidity
On the other side:
The weekly chart is still a sell signal
The 200-day MA acts as a ceiling, with the medium-to-long-term bearish structure unchanged
Overall net ETF outflows in June
The Fed is hawkish, with high interest rates suppressing risk assets
Key levels
Resistance above: 60,700-60,800 (short-term) → 62k-63,000 (strong resistance) → 65,000
Support below: 59,300 (first line) → 58k (lifeline) → 56,000
If 62,000 holds, look at 65,000. If 62,000 doesn’t break, a direct drop back to 58k.
Short-term players:
Wait and see, or go small long at 59.2k-59.5k with a stop below 58k.
Take partial profits around 62,000—don’t be greedy. In a bear market rally, profits in hand are yours.
Medium-term players:
Wait for a confirmed break and hold above 63,000, or wait for a pullback to 58k-60k before positioning.
Long-term players:
Dollar-cost averaging is fine, but keep position size at 10-20% of total capital.
Remember: the true bottom comes when everyone is in despair. People still shouting "the bull is back" means we haven’t hit bottom yet.
BTC’s current state is eerily similar to June 2022—
Everyone was shouting "the bottom is in," and then it dropped from 30k to 15k.
The only reason Bitcoin makes you lose money is you think "this time is different," but every time it’s the same.
A $61,500 BTC—do you think it’s cheap?
Three months ago at $65,000, you thought the same.
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