Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

HYPE at $70, still haven't caught the ride?

First, look at the chart: $70.57, up 0.47% in 24h, up 6-15% in 7 days, up 18-26% in 1 month, market cap $17.8B entering the top nine. On June 16, it just hit an ATH of $76.85. The normal script would be profit-taking driving it back below $60, but it's been consolidating around $70.

First thing: This thing is "buying itself" every day.

HyperLiquid takes 97-99% of its fee revenue and automatically buys back HYPE every day. What does automatic mean? It buys regardless of price, regardless of market conditions, every single day.

Annualized revenue over $600 million, almost all converted into buying pressure;

Q1 alone bought back over $17.8B, 30-day buyback $53 million;

And that's not counting ETF inflows (21Shares, Bitwise attracted over $50 million in the first week).

Second thing: The fundamentals are not just strong; it's "Wall Street on the chain."

TVL $5.5-6.1 billion, cumulative perpetual trading volume over $4.5 trillion, open interest hitting new highs repeatedly. Not just derivatives; spot, lending, prediction markets, RWA are all on-chain.

What's even more aggressive is HyperEVM — after the general smart contract launch, developers can freely build applications on it.

Third thing: The technicals are saying "gathering strength, don't rush."

The daily ascending channel is intact, higher highs + higher lows, holding above all EMAs, with the 50-day EMA at $58.5 providing strong support. The 4-hour chart bounced precisely from the 200 EMA, RSI neutral not overbought, MACD golden cross structure unbroken.

Now it's a high-level range consolidation, washout not deep, support strong.

Bull vs bear showdown, you decide.

Bulls:

Automatic daily buybacks, buying pressure never runs dry.

Real annualized revenue over $600 million, not vaporware.

Spot ETF inflows continue, institutions hoarding.

Technical ascending channel intact, ready to launch.

Bears:

Unlock of 9.9 million coins on August 6 (worth ~$700 million).

Only 8% away from ATH, profit-taking can surge anytime.

If BTC breaks below $62k, HYPE may follow.

Key Levels

Upper resistance: 72-73 → 76.85 (breakout targets 85-90).

Lower support: 68-69 → 65-66 (breakdown target 58.5).

Long term:

Accumulate in batches at the 65-68 support zone, target 100+, stake for compound interest. These are early chips of "on-chain Berkshire", don't give them away easily.

Mid term:

Buy dips, target back to 76-80, breakout see 85-90. Take 50% profit near 76, let the rest ride.

Short term:

Long at 69-70, stop loss 67.5, target 72.5-74. If it holds above 73, add longs, target 76+. Leverage not exceeding 3x, focus on spot.

Risk Red Lines:

Position not exceeding 15-20% of total capital.

If BTC breaks $62k, reduce position to prevent contagion.

Consider locking in some profits before the August unlock.

When HYPE went from 65 to 67, you hesitated. From 67 to 70, you hesitated again. Now it's been consolidating at 70 for nearly a month, and everyone says "wait for a pullback to 65 to catch the ride."

But do you know how this scenario ends?

It doesn't pull back, directly breaks through 76.85 with a big green candle, and then you watch 85, 90, 100 — finally can't help but rush in, right at the top.

Missing out hurts a hundred times more than being trapped, because when trapped you can console yourself "I'll be bailed out," but missing out is you personally pushing away the opportunity. #GUSD年化升至3.8% #预测世界杯阿根廷VS埃及 #Strategy上周减持3588枚BTC $ETH $BTC $HYPE

Cathie Wood suddenly dumped AMD and Alibaba, and reversed into these new hotspots!
Latest changes in ARK Invest's holdings:
1. SpaceX $SPCX
Bought $5.1 million. Bullish on commercial aerospace, satellite internet, and long-term growth opportunities in the space economy.
2. Energy Fuels $XE
Bought $4.9 million. A key U.S. uranium mining company, benefiting from the global nuclear renaissance and AI data centers driving electricity demand growth.
3. Bullish $BLSH
Bought $0.7 million. A crypto asset trading platform, planning to become a crypto exchange after listing.
4. Kratos Defense $KTOS
Bought $5.8 million. A representative U.S. defense technology company, focusing on drones, missile systems, and military intelligence.
5. Generate Biomedicines $GENB
Bought. A representative AI drug development company, using generative AI to develop novel protein drugs, a key direction Cathie Wood continues to bet on for AI + biotech.
6. Alamar Biosciences $ALMR
Bought. Focused on ultra-high sensitivity protein detection technology, with strong growth potential in precision medicine, early cancer screening, and other areas, making it a new innovative healthcare target.
7. AMD (Advanced Micro Devices) $AMD
Sold. One of the leaders in AI chips, but after a significant rally, ARK chose to partially cash out gains, reallocating funds to new themes such as defense and nuclear energy.
8. Alibaba $BABA
Sold. A leading Chinese internet stock.
9. Roku $ROKU
Sold. A leading U.S. streaming platform. After years of high volatility, ARK continues to reduce its position, shifting funds to higher-growth new tracks.
10. Twist Bioscience $TWST
Sold. A leading DNA synthesis company, which became the most significant biotech stock reduced by ARK Invest on the day, reflecting internal portfolio adjustments.
11. Absci $ABSI
Sold. An AI drug development concept company, ARK chose to partially take profits, moving funds to new positions like Generate Biomedicines.
12. Iridium Communications $IRDM
Sold. One of the global leaders in satellite communications, becoming the largest divestment target in the space fund, with funds shifted to defense and commercial aerospace assets.
13. Strata Critical Medical $SRTA
Sold. A healthcare-related holding, partially adjusted out by ARKX, reflecting the fund's continuous focus on core themes like aerospace and defense.
Which direction do you favor most?

I think the most harmful thing in the market is all kinds of sudden, totally unexpected breaking “hot” news.
People who trade market-moving sudden news are basically doing it with front-running funds.
For example, there’s the MicroStrategy news about selling coins—they hit it with a push for a wave, and then they dump.
Trump calls out a trade to pump it, then they “jab a needle” into it in the middle of the night.
And with news like this, you can’t take any action ahead of time.
It feels so disjointed—so bad.

Selling at a loss of $55 million—Strategy’s “never sell coins” image has completely collapsed today

That man who said “Bitcoin is an exit, not an entrance” just slapped himself with the loudest slap he could.

On July 6, Michael Saylor posted a tweet that was completely the opposite of his persona from the past six years—Strategy sold 3,588 BTC.

You didn’t read it wrong. The man who had etched “never sell” into the company’s DNA and worshiped Bitcoin as a faith for six years sold.

Not the “desensitization test” of 32 coins—3,588 coins. It sold 32 coins at the end of May, and 35 days later surged to a hundred times that. Average selling price: $60,197.

And his average cost basis is $75,651.

Losing $15k per coin, totaling a loss of $55 million.

Selling even when losing money.

Brothers, this isn’t “flexibly adjusting positions.” This is faith being securitized—and the interest payment date has arrived.

## 1. First, take a look at how explosive this is

Who is Strategy? The world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, holding 843,775 BTC, which is about 4% of the global total.

For the past six years, this guy’s business model has had only one word: buy.

Issue stock → buy Bitcoin → stock price rises → issue more stock → buy more Bitcoin. A perfect closed-loop leverage flywheel.

As long as the market is willing to give MSTR’s stock a premium (mNAV > 1), this flywheel can keep turning forever.

“Never sell” isn’t sentiment—it’s the lifeblood of this business.

So what about now?

mNAV has fallen below 1. The market’s valuation of Strategy is already lower than the value of the Bitcoin it holds. In other words, the capital markets think that “handing Bitcoin over to Strategy to manage” is a negative asset.

All three sets of gears in the flywheel are jammed solid.

First: the financing channel is blocked.

STRC preferred stock, designed to be anchored to a $100 par value to facilitate continuous fundraising. Now you can buy it on the secondary market for $75, and no one will subscribe to new shares at $100. The preferred-stock financing channel is effectively shut.

Second: the premium is gone.

When mNAV falls below 1, issuing additional common shares to buy coins is no longer worth it. For every share issued, the Bitcoin portion held by existing shareholders gets diluted.

Third: dividends must be paid, but there isn’t enough cash.

Strategy’s annual preferred stock dividend expense alone is as high as $1.5 billion. The cash flow from the software business? It’s nowhere near enough.

All three conditions fail at the same time. The flywheel turns into a meat grinder.

## 2. Why do we say this changes BTC’s long-term narrative?

The logic of “institutions never sell” used to be one of the most important psychological pillars in Bitcoin bull markets.

Think about it—how many people in the past few years have held their positions based on the line: “If Strategy doesn’t sell, why should I be afraid”?

Now that pillar has cracked.

Jiang Zhuo’er put it bluntly: “The promise of never selling coins has broken.”

And pay attention to one detail—Strategy apparently still has $2.55 billion in cash reserves on its books, enough to cover 17.6 months of interest payments.

If it’s not a cash shortage, why sell at a loss?

Because no matter how big the faith is, it can’t be bigger than the math of capital structure.

Saylor himself explained it clearly on the Q1 earnings call: when mNAV is below 1.22x, issuing shares is harm to existing shareholders. Selling coins to pay interest is actually a better solution—because it increases Bitcoin per share.

Put into plain language:

“When your stock isn’t worth much, selling coins is more cost-effective than selling stock.”

That’s the price of writing “never sell” into the company charter—when the math no longer supports the narrative, the narrative has to make way for the math.

## 3. What is happening in the market?

As soon as the news broke, Bitcoin dropped straight from the overnight high of $64,433, at one point touching $61,950. In 24 hours, nearly $500 million in leveraged positions were liquidated.

Fear Index at 28—market sentiment is still trapped in fear.

But it’s not that simple.

On the other side, ETFs are flowing back.

On July 2, Bitcoin ETFs ended 10 consecutive days of outflows, with a single-day net inflow of $222 million. On July 6, BlackRock’s IBIT pulled in $209 million in a single day.

On the other side, new buyers are stepping in.

Nasdaq-listed company Empery Digital bought 1,200 BTC in the past 6 days, worth approximately $72.65 million.

One side is the founder of “never sell” cutting losses; the other side is fresh capital coming in to bottom-fish.

Bulls and bears are battling head-to-head, and the confrontation is unusually intense.

## 4. What will happen next?

Short term:

Strategy still has $1.25 billion of the unused “BTC monetization plan” quota. The 20,000 BTC sell quota approved by the shareholders’ meeting will likely be carried out in stages.

Jiang Zhuo’er even predicts that, during the bull market phase, there could be sell-offs on the scale of hundreds of thousands of coins.

As long as Bitcoin’s price stays below the average cost line of $75,651, the pressure for further selling objectively exists.

Long term:

The loosening of the “institutions never sell” narrative can’t be repaired in a day or two.

But having said that—843,775 BTC are still in Strategy’s hands. The 3,588 coins being sold account for only 0.4% of total holdings.

The essence of this round of selling is to use Bitcoin’s liquidity to fill the holes in the capital structure during the gap when the flywheel is stopped.

Not a full liquidation—more like a blood transfusion.

Last sentence

“The moment faith is securitized, Bitcoin is no longer faith—it becomes a bill.”

With a $55 million loss, Saylor gave the entire market a lesson:

No “never sell” is unbreakable. When the cost of financing exceeds the cost of selling coins, even the most devout Holder will pick up a calculator#GUSD年化升至3.8% #Strategy上周减持3588枚BTC #GT二季度销毁257万枚 $ETH $BTC $SOL

🚨 Is the AI trade starting to lose momentum?
Samsung just reported a massive quarter with ₩89.4 trillion in profit, around $58.4 billion, marking an incredible 1,810% increase year over year, yet the stock still dropped 7.70% and is now down almost 24% from its recent peak in only 15 days.
The concerning part is not the earnings, because the numbers were strong, but the market reaction. Everyone already expected this result, from analysts to institutions to retail traders, and the stock had been pricing it in for months before the report even came out.
When a company delivers one of the strongest earnings prints in tech history and the stock sells off anyway, it shows that expectations may have gone too far ahead of reality.
That is usually what happens when a trade becomes overcrowded. The good news is already priced in, buyers are exhausted, and even record numbers are no longer enough to push prices higher.
This does not mean AI is dead, but it does suggest the AI trade may be entering a much more dangerous phase.

$CHIP caught massive momentum and is currently pumping at 0.03488, marking a solid +7.68% gains today alone!

The volume bars are steadily rising alongside the price action, pushing us right back toward the 24-hour high of 0.03506.

With a +14.09% gain over the last 7 days, this looks like a strong bullish reversal.

Are you riding the wave or waiting for a pullback? Let's see if it breaks the 0.035 resistance!#PredictWorldCup🇦🇷vs🇪🇬 #StrategySells3588BTC

Ceasefire agreement? Iran’s missiles teach you what “a piece of scrap paper” really means

At the end of June, the US and Iran had just signed a memorandum of understanding, and Trump said, “Basically settled.”

Then on July 7—

Iranian missiles directly hit commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

One oil tanker, one Qatar LNG ship. The port-side engine room was struck, burst into flames on the spot, and thick smoke filled the sky.

After one ship in the Gulf of Oman was hit by an “unknown projectile,” it caught fire. Another LNG vessel’s crew shouted over the radio: “The engine room is on fire, dense smoke everywhere—we can’t assess the damage.”

Both ships were severely damaged, but luckily no one died.

“The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has officially resumed military attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.”

A ceasefire agreement? There is none.

Oil prices jumped straight up by 1%.

Wait—didn’t Saudi Arabia just cut oil prices by $11? Didn’t OPEC+ just agree to increase production in August?

That’s right. On the supply side, they’re flooding the market. Saudi Aramco cut the price of Arab Light crude oil to Asia by $11 per barrel, the biggest drop in 26 years.

But one Iranian missile cancelled all of that out.

The Strait of Hormuz sees 20 million barrels of oil transit every day—20% of global supply. One sentence from Iran can halt tankers, let alone directly throw missiles at ships.

What is “pricing power”? This is what “pricing power” is.

But what really chills me isn’t oil prices.

It’s Bitcoin.

On July 6, BTC had just surged to $64,400.

On July 7, the missiles landed, and BTC immediately crashed back to $61,900.

Oil prices rise → inflation expectations heat up → the Fed doesn’t cut rates → risk assets get drained.

This transmission chain is more solid than any K-line you’ve ever seen in the crypto world.

Asian tech stocks already dropped first—Nikkei down 1.4%, Taiwan stocks down 1.8%. The crypto market is the next domino.

Are the Pakistan negotiations on July 11 still happening?

My assessment: discussing it is pointless.

The reason is simple—the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps doesn’t want to negotiate at all.

While they put on an act at the negotiating table, they’re fighting for real in the Strait of Hormuz. The moment the missiles were launched, it told the world:

The agreement is what we use to buy time—the strait is ours.

Trump said, “Either reach an agreement, or get the job done.”

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps replied: “Our missiles and drones are ready to open fire on you.”

Both sides are playing with maximum pressure.

The validity period of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement isn’t even as lasting as the gains of the altcoins in your hand.

Saudi Arabia’s $11 price cut couldn’t hold down oil prices, but one Iranian missile is enough—that’s the brutal reality of geopolitics.#GT二季度销毁257万枚 #Vitalik公布精简以太坊路线图 #gStocks代币化股票上线 $BTC $BZ $CL

Guys, yesterday I shared predictions for two World Cup matches, and both the win/loss directions were correct. ✅ Continuing to share tomorrow's two Round of 16 matches ⬇️ 🇦🇷 Argentina 2:0 Egypt 🇪🇬 Advancing: Argentina Analysis: Argentina has a clear overall advantage in strength, with superior individual ability in the front line and midfield control compared to Egypt. Egypt's elimination of Australia shows their defense is very tenacious, but their ability to create scoring opportunities is average.

$EDGE is showing strong intraday momentum on the 15m chart, currently trading at $0.3286, up +4.71% today. After finding solid support around the $0.2867 level, the price surged to a 24-hour high of $0.3394.

Despite a brief retracement, buyers are actively stepping back in, driving a steady recovery structure. Volume remains healthy with 11.90M EDGE traded in the last 24 hours.

While the 30-day view shows a macro correction (-29.59%), the short-term 7-day trend is flipping bullish at +15.54%.#GTBurns2.57MInQ2 #StrategySells3588BTC

Every morning, the Korean stock market serves as a directional indicator.
After opening with a decline,
U.S. pre-market stocks also fell together.
Earlier, AI chip-related stocks were all dropping.
For MU Micron, I only dared to take short positions at the high, but now I don’t dare to short here.
Last night, I didn’t even dare to short near 1010.
I fear stocks with such high attention.
However, going short from 1150 to 950 achieved the expected target.
$MU

The Korean stock market every morning is a market barometer.
After the open dropped,
the U.S. market in the pre-market also fell along with it.
Earlier, the AI chip names were all falling.
With MU (Micron), I only dared to “take the short” at the highs—but now, I don’t dare to do it here.
Last night, around 1010, I didn’t even dare to.
I’m afraid of the heat surrounding these popular, attention-grabbing names as they’re running hot.
But buying from 1150 down to 950 means the expected target has been achieved.
$MU

Holding $2.55 billion in cash, but insisting on selling BTC at a $55 million loss?

99% of people don't understand Strategy's latest move.

On July 6, Strategy dropped a bombshell—between June 29 and July 5, it sold 3,588 BTC, cashing out $216 million.

The average selling price was $60,197.

The average holding cost was $75,651.

Resulting in a realized loss of $55 million.

Michael Saylor, who for six years swore he would never sell Bitcoin, cut his losses at a point when BTC prices were near cycle lows.

The company had $2.55 billion in cash on its books.

It wasn't short on cash, yet it chose to sell at a loss.

Crazy?

But this was actually the smartest move Strategy has ever made.

First, the dividends on preferred shares can't just be paid with cash arbitrarily.

Strategy's annual preferred stock dividend payments alone amount to about $1.5 billion. This is a hard obligation—must be paid on time, not a single day's delay.

$2.55 billion in cash looks like a lot, but can it be used freely?

No.

That cash serves as collateral, operational reserves, and a regulatory compliance ballast. Touch it, and ratings get downgraded; funding channels dry up; the entire capital structure's credit collapses instantly.

Half the cash on the books is visible but untouchable.

Cash is the bottom line; BTC is the ammunition.

Second, selling BTC at a $55 million loss might be more valuable than making a $55 million profit.

Don't laugh—this is a basic principle of tax planning.

Realizing capital losses allows direct offset against future capital gains tax. In Q2, Strategy reported a digital asset impairment loss of $8.32 billion. By proactively realizing a portion of the losses, it effectively locks in a tax shield option for the future.

It traded $55 million in realized losses for a tax shield worth several times that in the future.

Retail investors focus on gains or losses. Institutions focus on maximizing after-tax net income.

Third—signal management.

Strategy had $2.55 billion in cash on its books, and preferred stock dividends were due. If it directly used cash to pay—

What would the market interpret?

"Strategy's cash flow is drying up! Run!"

Stock price crashes, preferred shares crash, funding channels crash, the entire flywheel stalls.

But paying dividends by selling BTC?

That sends a completely different signal—

"Selling BTC is just liquidity management; core positions remain intact."

"Our capital structure is still solid."

The result?

STRC preferred shares rebounded from a low of $73.62 at the end of June to break above $90.

The capital market voted with real money: they understood and approved.

Jiang Zhuoer said, "The narrative of never selling BTC has essentially ended."

Wrong.

"Never sell BTC" is a tactical slogan, not a mathematical formula.

Strategy's true goal was never "holding the most BTC"—but rather "maximizing BTC per share."

When MSTR's mNAV falls below 1.22x, issuing common stock to buy BTC becomes a net loss for existing shareholders.

At that point, selling BTC to pay dividends, or even buying back shares, becomes a better way to increase BTC per share.

Do you think he's betraying his faith?

He's guarding his faith in a smarter way.

Don't judge institutional behavior with retail thinking.

Retail investors see "buy or sell."

Institutions see "capital structure, tax efficiency, signal gaming."

Selling BTC at a $55 million loss might be smarter than using $2.5 billion in cash.

Because some cash, if touched, means death; some BTC, if sold, means survival.

"Faith can't be eaten, but capital structure can."

"Saylor didn't betray Bitcoin; he just finally learned to speak human to Wall Street."#GT二季度销毁257万枚 #Vitalik公布精简以太坊路线图 #比特币巨鲸两周狂扫27万枚BTC $BTC $ETH $SOL

This sudden V-shaped reversal is just an episode
But it also completed the retracement confirmation early
Today, staying above 62.4k, look for another low to go long and target 65.6K
Gold hasn't fully retraced yet. It is expected to stop falling in the 4118-4080 range and start a new round of upward movement
$BTC

This sudden V reversal is just an episode
But it also completed the retracement confirmation ahead of time
Today, staying above 62.4k, go long again on dips, targeting 65.6K
Gold hasn't hit the bottom yet, expected to stop falling in the 4118-4080 range and start a new round of rally
$BTC

That’s it then.
Cristiano Ronaldo has finally packed up and gone back home.
The star players I support are almost there—about to round up their retirement bundles.
Ronaldo has officially retired.
Neymar is also injured and has to bow out of the national team early.
This time, it’s probably also like this for Cape Verde goalkeeper Vozinha—his own World Cup curtain call.
If Messi also packs up and leaves tomorrow,
then everyone can just watch the remaining games slowly on your own.
My World Cup is over early.
Next time, no favorite players will be on the pitch.
I’m not going to follow the ball anymore!

**What if FOGO is only getting started? 👀**

$FOGO ‌ is showing fresh bullish strength after reclaiming the $0.0095 zone and moving higher with solid buying pressure.

As long as the price stays above $0.0096, buyers are still in control.

**Entry:** $0.0097 to $0.0098

**Target 1:** $0.0102

**Target 2:** $0.0106

**Final Target:** $0.0110

**Stop Loss:** $0.0093

Momentum is picking up, and the bulls look ready for another push higher.

#GTBurns2.57MInQ2 #PredictWorldCup🇵🇹vs🇪🇸

$ZIG holding the line beautifully. 🛡️
​Clean consolidation after the local high. Buyers are aggressively defending the $0.045–$0.046 floor on the 4H timeframe.
​With the buyback actively running and supply tightening up, this chart is a coiled spring.
@ZIGChain

$ETH showing some descent rise against $BTC but still dwindling in descending diagonal.

It needs to break this level for real altcoin season.

If you’re going to do it, do it with the leader; if you’re going to buy, buy the leader. A target of several hundred million is no problem. Although Solana had an explosive year in 2024, at that time CZ was dealing with his legal issues and wasn’t really in a position to fully capitalize on the entire BNB season. Shortly after his release and pardon, we saw BNB regain momentum around October. In my opinion, that was just a preview. In the previous cycle, BNB