Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

Recently, luxury homes in Shenzhen are being snapped up like crazy
Even at a premium
Most buyers are post-90s entrepreneurial new rich in the AI semiconductor industry
Buying luxury homes in full with cash from equity realization
I'm also a post-90s
May I ask where can I get equity? 🥹🙋‍♀️

$1 LAB, are you brave enough to buy the dip?

First, look at the surface: from $20 to $1, retail investors cry, "Never touch altcoins again."

In early June it was still standing proudly at $20, but in July it was cut in half again and again, bottoming below $1, market cap evaporating from $5 billion to less than $1 billion. Weekly chart down 86%, monthly chart down 90%, all moving averages broken.

First thing: Unlock crash, but whales have already dumped.

Token unlocks. Starting in July, locked tokens for investors, airdrop participants, and team were gradually released. On-chain data shows whales had already sold before the unlock.

On-chain investigator ZachXBT had warned early, but no one believed it at the time, everyone thought "this time is different."

Second thing: The product is real, and the narrative isn't dead.

LAB Terminal is a multi-chain trading terminal aggregating spot, futures, and limit orders from ETH, SOL, and BNB Chain, plus an AI research engine.

Before the crash, daily active users and trading volume had real growth. Now the price is down 90%, but the product hasn't changed, the team hasn't run. If this project were truly worthless, 24-hour trading volume couldn't still be $280 million. Some people are cursing, while others are buying.

Third thing: The technicals show two extreme signals.

Bad signal: Weekly and monthly lines are all broken, EMA moving averages shattered, trend still weak.

Good signal: The 1.07-1.20 range shows obvious volume consolidation, price bounced back from the low to 1.2, forming a "panic bottom" pattern.

The most brutal phase of the crash may have passed, but bottoming takes time. Going in now for a bounce could net 30-50%, or it could drop another 30%. This is risk, not certainty.

Bull vs. Bear, you decide

On one side:

- The product is real, multi-chain trading aggregation has actual demand
- 24-hour trading volume $280 million, liquidity still exists
- Around $1 is the previous launch zone, with psychological support
- Down 90%, historically such drops often come with violent bounces

On the other side:

- Unlock pressure isn't over, more tokens will be released
- Community trust broken, "rug-pull" accusations everywhere
- If Bitcoin loses 62,000, LAB will likely follow down
- Fundamentals not yet verified, platform actual adoption rate in doubt

Key levels

Resistance above: 1.3-1.5 → 2.0 → 5.0

Support below: 1.07 (today's low) → 1.0 (psychological level) → 0.8

Short-term traders:

Wait for a strong bullish candle to close above 1.3-1.5 before lightly wagering on a bounce, target 2.0, stop loss below 1.0.

Swing traders:

Wait until unlock pressure eases + volume shrinks to extreme low + BTC stabilizes, all three signals present before entering. Now is not the time to buy the dip, it's time to wait for the bottom.

Long-term believers:

Only if you truly believe "multi-chain trading terminal + AI tools" can be realized, consider accumulating in batches at 1.0-1.2. But remember — if it breaks below 0.8 with no fundamental catalyst, exit decisively.

At $20 you call it value investing, at $1 you call it a zero coin.

What changed isn't the project, it's your emotions.

A 90% drop is either an abyss or a golden pit. The difference is — do you dare, when everyone is cursing it, calmly ask yourself: "Does this product actually have any use?"#GUSD年化升至3.8% #特朗普宣布美伊停火结束 #蓝色起源启动百亿融资 $BTC $ETH $LAB

$ARB is catching massive bids today, pushing up to $0.08602 with a 24-hour high of 0.08682.

The rally is backed by strong fundamentals as headlines hit the wire Arbitrum gains a Robinhood chain revenue stream.

This major integration news has injected immense volume into the asset, driving a 24-hour volume of over 28M ARB.

Looking at the 15m chart, ARB is maintaining its bullish market structure right after a massive vertical leg up.

Are you riding this momentum higher, or waiting for a pullback?#PredictWorldCup🇫🇷vs🇲🇦 #StakeUSD1Earn8.88%APR

$67 HYPE—dare you to catch it?

First, look at the surface: the broader market is crashing, but it’s holding sideways without dropping.

Over the past 7 days, it has risen 7% against the trend, with a year-to-date gain of 165%. Its market cap has surged to $17 billion, firmly keeping it in the top 10, and its 24-hour trading volume is $400 million. The candlestick chart tells you this: the $66–68 range has been defended multiple times. On pullbacks, volume shrinks; on rebounds, volume expands. In a strong coin, a pullback is basically handing out money—don’t get scared out and left behind.

First thing: Bitwise has put it into an ETF—its institutional channel is officially open.

On July 8, the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF officially added HYPE, with a weight of 0.93%, sitting shoulder to shoulder with BTC, ETH, and SOL.

This is the first time an ETF has issued an “ID card” to a DeFi-native asset. Previously, did institutions want to buy HYPE? No way. Now it’s set up with one click—passive capital automatically buys.

HYPE spot ETFs see net inflows at the million-dollar-per-day level, while the BTC ETF sees large outflows over the same period.

Second thing: This project isn’t just about storytelling—it’s genuinely making money.

Hyperliquid’s trading volume in the first half of the year reached $1.34 trillion, with revenue of $320 million.

97%–99% of the revenue is directly used to buy back and burn HYPE.

The hotter the platform gets, the fewer coins there are, and the higher the price goes—that’s a positive flywheel.

Third thing: A textbook-level technical pattern has appeared.

On the daily timeframe, a typical cup-and-handle pattern is forming—from starting at $20, rising to $76.85, pulling back to $66–68, and now it’s working on the “handle.”

What’s the target price for the cup-and-handle pattern?

$95–100.

And add this: pullbacks come with shrinking volume, rebounds come with expanding volume. The 200-day moving average is firmly propping it up, and the $66–68 support has been hammered again and again.

Technicals, fundamentals, and liquidity—three forces converging. This kind of triple resonance is rare in crypto.

Bull-bear showdown—judge for yourself.

One side is:

Bitwise ETF inclusion, with institutions’ passive capital continuously buying

$1.34 trillion in trading volume over six months, and $320 million in real revenue

97%–99% of revenue used to buy back and burn—hard deflationary mechanics

Cup-and-handle targeting $95–100, with strong technicals

The other side is:

If BTC breaks below 60,000, it could drag down all alts

A 11%–12% pullback makes short-term traders panic

Large-wallet OTC transfers (possibly institutional turnover, or distribution)

Key levels:

Resistance above: 70–72 → 76.85 (ATH) → 90–100

Support below: 66–68 → 61–62 → 55–58

For short-term traders:

Wait for a retest of $66–68 to accumulate in batches, set a stop loss at $61, and take the first profit at $70–72 by exiting half. If it breaks out above $72 on volume, go long—stop loss at $68, target $76–80.

For swing traders:

Build a base position in the $66–68 area, add on a breakout above $76.85, target $90–100. Use a moving take-profit to hold—don’t get thrown off by a 10% pullback.

For long-term believers:

DCA in batches, aiming for $100+. The bet is that Hyperliquid transforms from a “derivatives DEX” into a “DeFi infrastructure-level platform”—and in this track, it currently has no rivals.

BTC fell from 100,000 to 60,000, ETH from 4,000 to 1,700, and HYPE rose from 20 at the beginning of the year to 67.

What you’re afraid to buy, institutions are snatching. What you’re stuck bagholding, institutions are selling.

It’s not that there’s no opportunity in the market—your understanding just can’t keep up.

$76.85 isn’t the end; it’s the starting point. #GUSD年化升至3.8% #特朗普宣布美伊停火结束 #蓝色起源启动百亿融资 $BTC $ETH $HYPE

ETF sees net inflows for 3 consecutive days, yet Bitcoin is falling? Institutions are entering while you are trapped — where is the problem?

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net inflows for three consecutive days.

On July 6, a single-day net inflow of $266 million ended an eight-week outflow streak.

BlackRock's IBIT raked in $209 million in a single day, buying approximately $250 million worth of BTC over two trading days. In previous weeks, BlackRock had a cumulative net outflow of $2.7 billion.

Ethereum ETFs have also been active, with net inflows of $26.93 million over four consecutive days.

Institutions are back. BlackRock is back.

Then what?

Bitcoin fell to around $62,000.

Are you totally confused?

Truth #1: BlackRock is buying, but what about others?

On July 8, total net inflows for Bitcoin ETFs were only $21.44M.

Why? Because Fidelity's FBTC saw a net outflow of $24.92 million that day, and Grayscale's GBTC had a net outflow of $63.69 million.

BlackRock is holding up alone, while others are still running.

IBIT absorbed almost all the positive inflows; capital concentration is too high. A single fund cannot support the entire market.

Truth #2: The Coinbase Premium Index has been negative for 50 consecutive days — this is the real alarm.

The Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index has been in negative territory for 50 consecutive days, setting the longest record since the indicator's launch. U.S. institutional demand remains absent.

ETF data is 'marginal change,' while the Coinbase premium is 'stock truth.' The direction can start to change with small numbers, but when the negative premium converges and turns positive is the next milestone to confirm the return of U.S. demand.

Three consecutive days of inflows, but when compared with 50 days of negative premium — this trickle of inflows isn't even enough to fill a tooth gap.

Truth #3: Geopolitics is draining liquidity.

U.S. military resumes strikes on Iran, oil prices surge, gold falls below 4100.

What is the market trading? Liquidity exhaustion, not risk hedging.

Bitcoin fell 2.3%, not because it isn't a safe haven — it's because when everyone is short of cash, any asset can be sold off.

So institutions enter while you are trapped, not because the market is targeting you.

It's because the 'institutional entry' you see is just the tip of the iceberg.

The part below the surface is called 'institutions haven't truly returned yet.'

BlackRock's $250 million purchase, placed within its $46.5 billion IBIT size, is less than 0.5%.

Direction changes always start with small numbers. But small numbers do not mean the trend has reversed.

3 consecutive days of inflow ≠ bull market is back. 8 weeks of outflow $2.7 billion, 3 days of inflow $280 million — the difference is still an order of magnitude.

BlackRock buying ≠ all institutions buying. GBTC and FBTC are still running.

Coinbase negative premium for 50 days ≠ U.S. demand recovering. Before the negative premium turns positive, don't rush to shout 'institutional bull.'

Geopolitics draining liquidity ≠ BTC will keep falling. But before bottom-fishing, ask yourself if you can withstand another 10% drawdown.#GUSD年化升至3.8% #特朗普宣布美伊停火结束 #伯恩斯坦称存储牛市可持续至2027年 $BTC $ETH $SOL

$BTC is showing the same cycle behavior again.
Breakdown, pullback, bottoming phase… then expansion.
The chart doesn’t need much explanation.
History isn’t exact, but it’s starting to rhyme.

Brothers, let me share an experience with you: if you’re on an exchange where you have assets and there are market rumors that this exchange has a security risk, don’t take any chances or hesitate—withdraw your assets immediately. Even if this exchange later turns out to have no problems after all, you won’t suffer any loss. But if this exchange really goes under, your loss will be 100%. Remember, remember this!

The core of trading lies in managing drawdowns.

A bull market determines how much you make, but a bear market and sideways market determine how much you keep.

In the long run, what stays in your pocket is what you truly earned.

$BTC has been moving sideways for a while now, and the market feels unusually quiet.

But calm phases like this don't last forever.

The longer this range holds, the more exciting the next breakout could be.

So the crypto world is on easy mode?

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体验链接：

Hynix is going up and down today, completely disregarding technical analysis.
I advise everyone not to touch Hynix futures until the trend is clear in the next couple of days.
Absolutely avoid Hynix futures contracts.
Spot positions can be considered.

Gao Shanwen dared to speak out while alive.
When news of his sudden death broke, many were left with question marks.
There are rumors of poisoning, radiation, deliberate delay of treatment, and being declared dead.
Yueguang looked into it, and the most famous recent case of "being radiated"
occurred in the UK: the "Litvinenko assassination case."
So, who is Litvinenko?
He was a former FSB agent of the Russian Federal Security Service.
Later, after publicly criticizing the Russian government, he fled to the UK and was recruited as a consultant for British intelligence.
In November 2006, Litvinenko met with two former Russian agents in London and drank a few sips of tea.
He did not know at the time that the tea had been laced with the radioactive element Polonium-210.
How terrifying is Polonium-210?
It emits alpha radiation that is nearly undetectable outside the body.
But once this radiation enters the human body, it continuously destroys cells and DNA, causing severe damage.
Litvinenko quickly developed symptoms such as violent vomiting, hair loss, and immune system collapse.
In just 21 days, he died of multiple organ failure.
Before his death, British experts discovered high doses of Polonium-210 in his body.
Because the assassins were unprofessional, police later detected radioactive residue in the hotels they stayed at, the planes they took, and the items they touched, easily identifying the suspects.
Many netizens have applied Litvinenko's experience to Gao Shanwen.
Because both dared to speak out and suddenly fell ill.
Thus they associate it with poisoning and radiation.
But medically, there is currently no evidence from Gao Shanwen's side indicating poisoning.
Public information shows that Gao Shanwen underwent over a year of standard cancer treatment.
His pathological diagnosis was peripheral T-cell lymphoma, and he received treatments including CAR-T.

Retail investors in South Korea are cutting losses, while Wall Street is going on a frantic buying spree—same SK Hynix, two different worlds.

South Korea’s stock market is plunging.

On July 8, the KOSPI crashed 5.35%, triggering a circuit breaker during the trading session. From its June peak, the South Korean market has pulled back more than 20%, officially entering a technical bear market.

So what about SK Hynix?

In just nine trading days, its share price slid from nearly 3 million won to 2.07 million won, and its market value evaporated by more than $260 billion. On July 8 alone, it dropped another 5.68%.

Retail investors are cutting losses, and leveraged products are getting liquidated— the 2x long Hynix ETF has fallen more than 57% from its intra-year high.

A chorus of cries of despair.

But at the very same time, something else happened—

SK Hynix’s US IPO was oversubscribed by more than 7 times.

Global top-tier institutions like Baillie Gifford and Coatue Management placed orders starting at $200 million each; some went straight in with $1 billion. The three institutions combined have expressed intended subscriptions totaling as much as $7 billion.

Raising $24.5 billion, it is poised to set the second-largest record for a foreign company’s US listing in history—only behind Alibaba.

On one side, South Korea’s market is collapsing and triggering circuit breakers, with retail investors fleeing for the exits.

On the other side, Wall Street institutions are snapping up ADRs, oversubscribed by 7 times.

Same company, two worlds.

What are Koreans selling? What is Wall Street buying?

First, let’s see why South Korea is breaking down.

First: capital is “changing lanes.”

Previously, if US institutions wanted to buy Hynix, they had to route through the Korea Exchange—exchange rates, liquidity, and information disclosure were all obstacles. Once ADRs went live, Nasdaq could be used directly: T+0, shortable, with options.

Overseas institutions are doing one thing: selling the Korean listed shares, waiting to buy US ADRs. This isn’t a lack of confidence in SK Hynix—it’s just moving to a more convenient place to buy.

Second: a stampede caused by leverage.

When Samsung and Hynix fell, leveraged ETFs tracking them were forced to liquidate. Those liquidations then hit the stock price again—forming a vicious cycle. South Korea’s deputy prime minister held an emergency meeting overnight.

Third: the chips are too crowded.

Goldman Sachs data shows that in the first half, the KOSPI surged 101%, but 87% of the gains came from just two sectors: AI hardware and semiconductors. The entire South Korean stock market is betting on a single track. Once risk appetite turns against it, there is no other sector that can pick up the slack—no other sector can absorb the risk appetite reversal.

Fourth: good news is used up.

Samsung delivered what is arguably its strongest performance in history—quarterly operating profit of 89.4 trillion won, up 1810% year over year. And the result? The stock kept falling regardless.

“Buy the rumor, sell the fact.” When expectations are already priced in to the fullest extent, even the best earnings become a signal to exit.

So why is Wall Street going wild buying?

Because institutions are looking at three years from now—not three days from now.

Bernstein said clearly that the memory bull market could extend through 2027. SK Hynix’s expected gross margin is 90.8% in 2026 and 94% in 2027.

It has the world’s No.1 market share in HBM and is deeply tied to Nvidia. This is not a cyclical stock—it’s the gatekeeper of AI computing power.

The South Korean market treats it like a cyclical stock and trades it as: sell when it has run up.

The US market prices it as a core AI asset and assigns a long-term premium.

Same thing—completely different valuation logic in two markets.

Tomorrow will be the real test

On July 10, SKHYV will list on Nasdaq. On July 13, it will switch to the official ticker code SKHY.

Its first-day performance will determine which story the market believes—South Korea’s “cycle peak,” or Wall Street’s “AI long bull.”

If the ADR rallies strongly, the local Korea-listed shares may rebound alongside it, and arbitrage capital could flow back.

If the ADR breaks below the issue price, then the concerns in the South Korean market will be validated, and global AI hardware could face another round of selling.

I lean toward the former.

Because 7x oversubscription is not retail sentiment—it’s top-tier institutions voting with real money. Money from Baillie Gifford and sovereign wealth funds won’t cancel orders just because the KOSPI triggers a circuit breaker.

“When Korean retail investors are selling in panic, Wall Street is using $24.5 billion to tell them: you sold the wrong thing.”

The memory cycle isn’t over; it’s just that the slope is easing.

Real smart money always moves the chips—from the hands of the weak—into its own pocket when others panic.

Let’s see what Nasdaq reveals tomorrow.

Disclaimer: The above is a personal opinion sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. The market carries risks; trade with caution.#GUSD年化升至3.8% #特朗普宣布美伊停火结束 #SK海力士ADR获超额认购 $BTC $SKHY $MU

Saylor Says BTC Annual Gains of 3.3% Can Pay Dividends Forever

—I couldn’t even laugh after hearing that

3.3%.

You read that right—not 33%, not 13%.

Yesterday, Strategy’s Michael Saylor told the whole world: as long as Bitcoin’s annualized growth exceeds 3.3%, capital appreciation can cover STRC preferred stock dividends indefinitely.

Even if Bitcoin’s annual growth is 0%, the company still has 31 years of dividend funds.

But there’s one detail Saylor didn’t mention.

First, the facts: what does 3.3% actually mean?

Strategy currently holds 843,775 Bitcoin, with $2.55 billion in cash reserves.

Preferred stock dividends already jumped to $229.5 million in Q1 2026, versus only $10.6 million in the same period last year. That’s a 20x increase year over year.

The annualized dividend obligations are now approaching $1.5 billion.

Saylor’s calculation is: if Bitcoin rises 3.3%, the appreciation portion on 850,000 BTC is enough to cover the dividend payments.

The math checks out. But in real life, people don’t run on math—people run on human nature.

Peter Schiff Pops the Bubble in One Sentence

Peter Schiff, who has long been bearish on Bitcoin, fired back immediately.

He said Saylor’s logic relies on the assumption that “dividend obligations won’t grow over time”—but the truth is that dividends are growing, and they will very likely keep growing.

The numbers you calculate today won’t be the same tomorrow.

The premise of Saylor’s model is that Bitcoin will grow at an average annualized rate of 3.3% in the long run.

But Bitcoin’s year-to-year fluctuations have never been gentle.

From 2026 to now, Bitcoin’s price is down 27.1%, MSTR’s stock price is down 32.3%, while the S&P 500 has risen 10.2%.

3.3%?

When Bitcoin has been falling for three straight years, what are you going to use to pay dividends?

Most ironically of all: Saylor is already slapping his own face

Just two days before he posted this tweet—on July 6—Strategy had just completed the largest Bitcoin sale in the company’s history.

3,588 BTC, raising about $216 million, to pay preferred stock dividends.

The average sale price was about $60,215.

Their average cost basis is $75,700.

They lose $15,000 for every BTC they sell.

Even after losing, they still sold—$55 million in losses.

What was Saylor’s persona over the past six years? “Never sell Bitcoin,” “Bitcoin is digital gold,” “HODL to death.”

On July 6, he personally overturned that persona.

Saylor’s model has a fatal assumption: that 3.3% is an “average” gain.

But dividends have to be paid every year.

What happens when a bear market hits? In the year when the coin price drops 50%, what do you use to pay? Keep selling coins? The more you sell, the fewer you have—and the less you can pay.

That’s a negative spiral.

Not to mention the preferred stock interest rate is still moving higher—currently 11.5% annualized, and it has been raised several times since issuance.

Interest is rising, coin prices are falling, and you’re selling.

This isn’t a cycle—it’s depletion.

3.3% is the math problem Saylor presents to investors, but Bitcoin’s chart has never done math.

When Strategy’s mNAV (Market Value to Net Asset Value ratio) has already dropped below 1—meaning the market values it lower than the actual value of its Bitcoin holdings—

If even Saylor himself is selling at a loss, why should you believe that 3.3% is enough?#预测世界杯法国VS摩洛哥 #特朗普宣布美伊停火结束 #蓝色起源启动百亿融资 $BTC $ETH $SOL

The match between France and Morocco starts tomorrow. France definitely has the advantage. After all, the squad strength on paper is clear, with luxury options in every position. Captain Mbappé is in excellent form, already scoring 7 goals. The forward line consisting of him, Olise, Dembélé, and Barcola can deliver a devastating blow to any defense.

Bombs are flying, but BTC only dropped 2%? The market is numb—that's the most dangerous thing.

The U.S. military bombed Iran for two consecutive days.

Over 80 targets were destroyed—air defense systems, command networks, coastal radar, and over 60 speedboats.

Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has "basically stopped." Brent crude briefly broke $80 intraday, surging over 7% in a single day.

So what happened?

Bitcoin dropped 2%, hovering around $62,000.

The three major U.S. stock indexes—the Dow fell 1%, the S&P 500 fell 0.3%, and the Nasdaq actually rose 0.2%.

Gold? Also falling. For three consecutive days, down to $4,070.

There's a war, oil prices are surging, BTC only drops 2%, gold doesn't rise but falls, and the Nasdaq is in the green?

Are you sure this is a wartime market?

The traditional script is completely messed up.

According to textbooks, war = risk-off = gold spikes, stocks crash, Bitcoin follows in panic selling.

Now? BTC acts like nothing happened, Nasdaq tech stocks rise against the trend, and gold is being sold off.

What's really going on in the market? Is it rational digestion, or is risk severely underestimated?

The truth is: the market can no longer tell which statement is true.

Trump says: The ceasefire agreement "is over" and we might hit Iran hard again tonight.

Trump also says: Iran just called, very eager to reach a deal.

Trump also says: The oil price surge "doesn't matter" because the U.S. has an oil surplus.

Three statements, three directions. From the same mouth.

On Iran's side: Some senior officials hint at willingness to negotiate, while parliament threatens to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—extending the threat from Hormuz to the gateway of the Red Sea.

One says "I will fight," one says "I want to talk," one says "I can still escalate."

How do you expect the market to price that?

This is the problem.

The market hasn't "rationally digested" the risk. The market has become numb from crying wolf.

From June 22, when the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding, to now—less than 20 days—ceasefire, tear-up, strikes, negotiations, more strikes, more calls for talks.

Every time they claim "escalation," every time BTC drops 2-3% and stabilizes.

Cry wolf enough times, and villagers can't even be bothered to close the door.

But this time, the wolf might really be at the door.

Two severely underestimated risks:

First, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Iranian officials have explicitly stated: if attacked, they will not only close Hormuz but also block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

What is the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? A strategic chokepoint connecting the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. 12% of global oil trade passes through it.

Hormuz + Bab el-Mandeb, two of the world's major energy arteries squeezed simultaneously. Is $80 oil the ceiling? You're being naive.

Second, the July 11 talks.

Talks were originally scheduled to restart on that day in Pakistan. But Iran has "officially suspended negotiations with the U.S."

If talks are directly canceled, the geopolitical premium will be repriced. If talks continue but collapse—the market's current numbness is the biggest bull trap.

Numbness to conflict in the market has never meant the disappearance of risk, but the accumulation of risk.

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The Fed says, “We are united,” but when you turn to page X of the minutes, it says, “Some people want to raise rates”

—Which one do you believe?

At 2:00 a.m. on July 9, the Fed told the whole world:

“All participants unanimously supported keeping interest rates unchanged.”

United in one spirit, determined like a solid force, with peaceful days ahead.

But if you really believe it, then you’re the greenest leek of all.

Flip open these freshly released meeting minutes—on which page does it say: “A few participants believed there were reasons to raise rates at the June meeting.”

Didn’t they say “all agreed”?

What kind of unity is this?

What did the Fed chair, Wosh, say himself? He called this debate a “family quarrel.” After the quarrel came the vote— and the measure passed unanimously to keep interest rates unchanged.

All smiles on the surface, but swords and spears underneath.

So the question is—why is the Fed putting on this show?

The answer is simple: expectation management.

The Fed’s mouth is unified, but their minds are split. They don’t dare let the market see the split. Because once the market knows “someone wants to raise rates,” bond yields will skyrocket, the stock market will crash, and the crypto market will come cascading down like a waterfall.

So they bury all their differences on page X of the minutes, and cover it up with the line “unanimous.”

But under the lid, the sparks have been burning all along.

The minutes are written very clearly: participants generally believed that the upside risks to price stability remain high, while the downside risks to achieving full employment have eased.

Translation: Inflation is the boss; employment is no longer a concern.

When inflation risks are on the rise and employment risks are on the decline—where does that seesaw tilt? Can you not tell?

In effect, the Fed is saying: We’re just one data point away from raising rates.

What about AI?

This time, for the first time, the minutes wrote the AI investment boom into the inflation discussion.

What are officials worried about? AI infrastructure construction is too aggressive—driving up prices of tech products, driving up electricity prices, and driving up demand for related equipment—all of which is inflationary.

If even AI can become a reason to raise rates, just think how anxious the Fed is about inflation.

Don’t listen to what they say about being “data-driven.” “Data-driven” is a cover; inflation anxiety is the truth.

After the minutes were released, Bitcoin fluctuated around $62,000.

Across the whole network, $333 million was liquidated within 24 hours, and more than 110,000 people were wiped out.

This isn’t the end.

What the market fears most isn’t rate hikes—it’s “uncertainty.”

These minutes give you one certainty—no hike this month. But at the same time, they plant an even bigger uncertainty—that a hike may come in the future.

CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in July is 31%, and the cumulative probability of rate hikes by September is already approaching 70%.

BTC will keep oscillating in the face of this “Schrödinger’s rate hike.” Until August’s CPI provides a clear direction, every rebound is just bait to lure you in.

The Fed’s mouth is unified, but its mind is split. Don’t listen to what they say—watch which paragraph they put the word “risk” in.

Inflation risk is written on the first page, and employment risk is written on the last page—that’s the whole answer.#GUSD年化升至3.8% #美终止对伊朗石油制裁豁免 #SK海力士ADR获超额认购 $BTC $ETH $SOL