Is BTC worth $63,000—are you still waiting for a “lower” price?
First, look at what’s on the surface: bad news comes one after another, and retail traders panic and shout “to zero.”
In July, it finally rose 7.5%, but at the end of the month a wave of sell-offs smashed it back down from 65,000+ to 63,000. The Coldcard vulnerability, a weak Coinbase earnings report, and ETF inflows/outflows shifting unpredictably—media blasts tell you: “BTC is going back to 50,000!”
First thing: 70 million in Coldcard was stolen, but the market is already numb.
A hardware wallet vulnerability led to 1,082 BTC being stolen. Sounds terrifying? But look at the chart—BTC didn’t collapse; instead, it held steady in the 62,400–63,000 range.
Retail traders are still panicking about “hackers dumping,” so what are long-term holders doing? Over the past month, the share of short-term holders has fallen to 23.5%—a multi-year historical bottom zone.
Second thing: long-term holders are accumulating, and you want to dump everything.
On-chain data says three things—listen carefully:
First, the market cap share of short-term holders (STH) has fallen to 23.5%. This is the lowest point in months.
Second, supply dormant for 5+ years hits a new all-time high.
Third, the share of long-term holders (LTH) keeps rising.
Third thing: at the 63,000 level—how expensive is it really?
ATH was 126,000, down a full 50%.
Valuation metrics like MVRV are in a historically low range.
Miner hashprice is so low it’s ridiculous—some miners have already shut down. Historically, whenever miners exit at large scale, it signals a bottom area.
A BTC at 63,000 is half the price of 126,000. You don’t dare buy. If it returns to 100,000, will you chase it?
Fourth thing: but don’t get too happy yet—this “bomb” is still hanging over your head.
The probability of September rate hikes is already 67%. CPI is still 3.5%, and the 200-day moving average at 71,700 is far overhead, pressing down. In August, seasonality historically is on the weaker side, and ETF fund flows keep coming in and out—institutions haven’t formed a sustained buying force.
The biggest short-term risk: if 62,400 can’t hold, the next stop is 60,000, and then 58,000.
Bull vs. bear—you decide what you see
One side is:
The short-term holder share at 23.5%—historical bottom, selling pressure is drying up
Supply dormant for 5+ years hitting a new high—“old hands” hold to the end and don’t sell
From 126,000 down to 63,000—down by half, valuation has already digested a lot
Miner hashprice is weak, reducing marginal sell pressure
July still closed up 7.5%—resilience is stronger than you think
The other side is:
The 200-day moving average at 71,700, far overhead—mid-term structure still bearish
A 67% probability of September rate hikes—expectations of tighter liquidity
ETF fund flows keep flipping—institutions haven’t formed a unified bid
If 62,400 breaks down, the technical picture points to 60,000 and even lower
August seasonality is weak—history doesn’t support you
Key levels
Upper resistance: 63,700–64,500 → 65,000–65,500 → 68,000
Lower support: 62,400 (critical) → 62,000–62,500 → 60,000
For short-term traders:
Go long: scale into a light long position from 62,400–62,800. Stop-loss below 61,800. Target 63,700–64,500. If there’s a breakout with volume above 64,500, add more and look for 65,000+.
Go short: if the price bounces up to around 63,700–64,300, go short with a light position. Stop-loss above 64,800. Target 62,500–62,000.
For swing traders:
Wait for confirmation from the daily close. If there’s a breakdown with volume below 62,400, add to the short and target 60,000 or even lower. If it stands above 64,500 on volume, flip long with a target toward 68,000.
For long-term believers:
Dollar-cost-average spot in the 60,000–63,000 range. The on-chain accumulation signal is the strongest in the past six months, and valuation has already entered a “cheap zone.”
What year does the market resemble now?
Like late 2022’s 16,000—back then, everyone thought “BTC is going to zero.”
What happened? It rose to 30,000 in 2023, 70,000 in 2024, and 126,000 in 2025.
Every time you think “this time is different,” it’s actually the same—bottoms are hammered out by panic selling, and tops are chased out by FOMO.
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