BTC at $64,300—would you dare bet on the eve of CPI?
First, on the surface: bearish pressure is piling up, and retail investors are panicking hard.
After retracing nearly half from the 126,000 ATH, BTC is now grinding around 64,300. On August 10, ETF net outflows reached $140 million, while Strategy sold another 1,690 BTC. Rising oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and gold diverting funds—all the news is shouting, “Run!”
First: ETFs saw outflows, but you may have been fooled.
The $140 million outflow on August 10 was all over the headlines. But did you know that cumulative inflows exceeded $850 million last week? The 30-day figure is still a net inflow overall. Institutions haven’t run—they’re simply rebalancing as usual.
The media wants your fear, not your truth.
Second: Strategy sold coins, but what are the real whales doing?
Strategy sold another 1,690 BTC to buy back preferred shares, sending the market into a panic. But turn your screen around and look at the on-chain data:
The number of “strongest hands” addresses holding over 10k BTC has risen to 90, a six-month high. Mid-sized whales have cumulatively bought approximately $1.5 billion worth of BTC since the end of July.
Third: CPI is coming, and this is the biggest variable.
The US July CPI will be released on August 12. The market expects 3.4% year-over-year growth, compared with 3.5% previously, while core CPI may tick up slightly. July employment data was already weak enough to show negative growth, driving rate-cut expectations higher.
CPI meets or comes in below expectations → Rate-cut expectations strengthen → BTC takes off directly, targeting 66k–68k+
CPI exceeds expectations → Hawkish concerns resurface → Short-term sell-off, potentially falling to 62k or even lower
64,300 is the central axis; CPI is the trigger.
The bulls and bears face off—judge for yourself
On one side:
Whale addresses hit a six-month high, while mid-sized whales aggressively bought $1.5 billion
ETF inflows exceeded $850 million last week, with the 30-day figure still a net inflow overall
Weak July employment data is driving rate-cut expectations higher
Strong support at 63,600–63,800 has held
On the other side:
ETF outflows of $140 million on August 10, with short-term momentum weakening
Strategy continues selling, casting a shadow over corporate selling
Rising oil prices + geopolitical tensions are weighing on risk assets
CPI uncertainty leaves the direction unclear
Key levels
Resistance above: 64,500–65,000 → 65,800–66,800 → 70,000+
Support below: 63,600–63,800 → 62k–62,500 → 60,000
Trading strategy
Short-term traders (before CPI):
Bullish: Lightly go long on a pullback to 63,600–63,800, stop-loss at 63,200, target 64,800–65,200
Bearish: Lightly short a low-volume rebound to 64,800–65,200, stop-loss at 65,500, target 63,800–63,500
After CPI:
Positive data and a breakout above 65,000 on increased volume → Chase longs, target 66k–68k
Negative data and a break below 63,600 → Reduce positions and wait, then buy again at 62,000
Swing traders (mid-term):
Build positions in batches at 63,000–64,000, stop-loss at 61,500–62,000, target 66,000–68,000→70,000+.
Long-term believers:
Blindly dollar-cost average below 63,000 and ignore the CPI noise. Remember: every panic is a discounted sale, and every FOMO move means buying the top.
BTC’s current status—
63,600 is the short-term lifeline, while 65,000 is the bulls’ pass to get through. CPI is the referee.
A bull market is never a straight line without setbacks; it is a process of shaking out the weak-handed.
On the day CPI triggers a breakout above 65,000, you will realize:
It wasn’t that BTC was incapable—it was that you panicked and liquidated every time before the data came out.
Do you think CPI will be bullish or bearish?
On the day 65,000 breaks, will you still be on board? 👇
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