Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

Why do people say this world is just a slapdash operation?
I have a friend who spent six months tightening screws on a workshop floor and learned a bit of drafting from his colleagues.
Later, he applied for an engineering job and, forcing himself to be bold, claimed to have two years of experience. He was exposed after 20 days on the job and fired.
In theory, the story should have ended there.
But unexpectedly, those 20 days of experience became his stepping stone to his next job.
He joined a new company, learning while working and gradually making up for his lack of experience. He has now been there for 5 years and is responsible for both the North China and South China regions.
Another close childhood friend had an even more unbelievable experience.
After self-studying for just one week, he applied for a bid specialist position.
Only after joining did he discover that most people at the company were not as capable as he had imagined.
So he learned while working, and after 3 years, he has become a pillar of the company.
That is why many people do not step onto the stage only after they are ready; they step onto it first and slowly learn along the way.
Many so-called barriers, areas of expertise, and authorities are far less solid than we imagine.
That is why people say: this world is essentially just a slapdash operation.
And the crypto world is even more so.
You may think every project team has everything carefully planned, but in reality, they are often feeling their way across the river by stepping on stones.
You may think there is a precise logic behind the market, but in reality, many rallies are driven simply by narratives, capital, and sentiment.
So, do not assume others are too smart, and do not think you are incapable.
The most authentic side of the crypto world is this: the people on stage may not know the answer, and the people below the stage may be no worse than them.

After I published my previous article, many people messaged me saying they didn’t see the registration link and registered and downloaded it themselves, so they couldn’t be added to the whitelist.

I’m posting it again. Please note that you must click the link or enter the invitation code to register and download it in order to enjoy the exclusive benefits.

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Dear, what should I do?
I thought it was a bear market, so I could study hard and improve every day
But on the way back to school
The bull market is here~
Bulls, come back quickly
Continue sitting idly on-chain
#BullMarketArrives

At $3.65, will you buy UNI?

First, the surface: a spike and retrace, with retail investors hesitating and afraid to act.

UNI surged to 4.5-4.6 in early August, then plunged all the way to around 3.2 before stabilizing, and has now bounced back to 3.65. From the low of 2.3, it is up 60%, but it has fallen 20% over the past two weeks. The daily RSI is around the neutral 50 level, while the MACD shows signs of turning positive.

First: the fee switch has been activated, turning UNI from a "voting token" into a "money printer."

In early 2026, the DAO had burned approximately 100 million UNI, with an annualized burn rate of 2-4%, and the pace is still accelerating. Protocol trading fees are directly used to buy back and burn UNI. UNI is no longer a governance token with "no use beyond voting"—it now has cash flow and deflationary properties.

Previously, UNI was just a voting ticket. Whether the team worked or not had nothing to do with you.

Now, the protocol's earnings directly buy and burn UNI, making the tokens in your hands increasingly scarce.

This follows the same logic as stock buybacks—Apple does exactly this.

Second: Uniswap is taking over the entire world.

Deployment on Circle Arc (an institutional L1 whose mainnet launches in September), steadily increasing fee contributions from Robinhood Chain, growing RWA/tokenized stock and bond trading volumes, and participation in the agentic payments alliance with Visa/Mastercard. Institutions such as BlackRock have already accessed Uniswap liquidity through related channels.

Cumulative trading volume is astronomical, while DEX market share often remains above 25%. V4+hooks+Unichain are crushing competitors in capital efficiency.

Third: the technicals have reached a point where a decision must be made.

On the monthly timeframe: after rebounding from the June low of 2.3 to 4.5 in early August, it pulled back and stabilized around 3.2, forming a typical "breakout on rising volume followed by a low-volume retest" structure. The weekly chart remains in an uptrend channel, with intense battles around the EMA20/50.

Bulls versus bears—you decide.

On one side (bulls):

Fee switch activation + buyback-and-burn, with annualized deflation of 2-4%

Approximately 100 million UNI already burned; the deflation narrative has only just begun.

Deployment on Circle Arc/Robinhood Chain, with growing RWA trading volume

Standard Chartered sees 6.5 by year-end and 100 by 2030.

A pullback after a monthly breakout—the classic "getting on board" structure

On the other side (bears):

A 20% pullback from 4.5, with the short-term trend still weak.

Altcoin season has not fully begun, and BTC dominance remains high.

Macro liquidity is still affected by the Fed's path, with the September meeting approaching.

Repeated failures to break 3.80-4.00 create significant psychological pressure.

Key levels

Resistance above: 3.70-3.80 (short-term congestion zone) → 4.00 (psychological level) → 4.40-4.80 → 6.5

Support below: 3.50-3.60 (demand zone) → 3.20-3.30 (previous low) → 3.00 (iron floor)

Trading strategy

Short-term traders:

Scale into light long positions in the 3.55-3.65 range, stop-loss at 3.45-3.50, take half off at 3.80, and exit fully at 4.00-4.20. Chase a high-volume breakout above 4.00, with a stop-loss at 3.70. Leverage.

Swing traders:

Spot or low-leverage long positions; hold as long as 3.50 holds, with a target of 4.5-6. Cut losses and exit below 3.20, then wait for a lower demand zone.

Long-term believers:

DCA in batches below 3.5. Fee switch + deflation + RWA make the medium- to long-term thesis extremely constructive. Target: 6.5+ by the end of 2026.

UNI is transitioning from a "voting token" into a "money printer"—

99% of people still have not realized it, thinking it is "just another altcoin," but the fee switch has completely changed its underlying logic.

On the day 4.0 breaks through, you will realize:

It was not that UNI was incapable—it was that you sold at 3 every time and chased it again at 6.

What is your UNI cost basis?

At 3.65, do you dare to buy the dip? #BTC升破70000美元日内涨幅8.3% #ETH暴涨20%突破2300美元 #美财政部回购与豁免信号驱动加密大涨 $ETH $UNI $MU $SNDK $BTC

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But I’m actually not excited, because I knew a long time ago that I would break even.

1. My $CRCL is back to break-even; 2. My ETH spot position is almost 50% in profit. Thank you, August, for the most beautiful summer✌️

Not easy—the [largest long whale on Hyperliquid] has finally broken even after enduring $120 million in unrealized losses! He has held BTC and ETH long positions worth $487 million through 11 addresses for nearly 4 months, and has been holding through the losses for 4 months because he was trapped after opening the longs. In total, he opened longs on 3,000 BTC ($216 million) + 120,000 ETH ($271 million), with BTC’s average entry price at $72,000 and ETH’s average entry price at

Gold at $4,470—would you chase it?

Look at the surface first: up 4% in a day, its biggest single-day gain in six months.

On August 19, the U.S. Treasury suddenly announced that it would double its buyback of long-term Treasuries (10- to 30-year maturities) from $2 billion to at least $4 billion. As soon as the news broke, long-term bond yields plunged, the dollar crashed, and spot gold surged in a straight line—from around $4,330 to $4,525, up $188 in a single day, or 4.36%.

First: the Treasury’s “mini QE” sent markets into overdrive.

On the surface, the Treasury’s move was aimed at “improving liquidity in the long-term U.S. Treasury market.” But the market isn’t stupid—the 30-year Treasury yield had previously surged to a nearly 19-year high of 5.31–5.34%, and the Treasury could no longer sit still.

The size of a single buyback was doubled directly from $2 billion to $4 billion. The market interpreted it as follows: this isn’t liquidity support; it’s a disguised “mini quantitative easing.”

The dollar plunged in response, while gold surged violently.

Second: with U.S. national debt surpassing $40 trillion, gold has become the only “cure.”

Why did the Treasury step in? Because U.S. national debt has surpassed $40 trillion.

Uncontrolled long-term yields mean the cost of rolling over the U.S. government’s debt is soaring. The Treasury can only enter the market itself to buy bonds and push yields down. But this sends a signal in the opposite direction: confidence in the dollar is being discounted, and the fiat currency system is under pressure.

Why is gold rising? Because when the paper-money system begins trying to save itself, physical assets become the only safe haven.

Third: China’s central bank has been “hoarding gold” for 21 consecutive months, with record purchases in a single month.

Data released on August 7: China’s gold reserves stood at 76.08 million ounces at the end of July, an increase of 640k ounces month-on-month. This marked the 21st consecutive month of accumulation, while July’s purchases were the largest since gold buying resumed in November 2024.

Global central banks recorded net gold purchases of approximately 289 tons in Q2. While you’re hesitating over whether gold at $4,470 is worth buying, central banks are still buying at $4,500.

Bulls vs. bears—see for yourself

On one side (bulls):

The Treasury’s “mini QE” opens the door to the currency-depreciation narrative

U.S. debt at $40 trillion + fiscal concerns make gold the only safe haven

China’s central bank has increased its holdings for 21 consecutive months, with July marking the largest single-month purchase

Ahead of Jackson Hole, the market expects Fed Chair Warsh to be neutral to dovish

On the other side (bears):

Severely overbought after a 4% one-day surge, with massive profit-taking pressure

If Jackson Hole (August 27–29) delivers a hawkish signal, the trend could reverse

Chasing longs around $4,470—you won’t be able to withstand even one pullback

If geopolitical premiums fade, gold could give back its gains

Key levels

Upside resistance: $4,500–$4,525 → $4,550–$4,600

Downside support: $4,470–$4,450 → $4,400 → $4,320

Trading strategy

Short-term traders:

Try small long positions around $4,470 or after a pullback to $4,450–$4,460 confirms support, with a stop-loss at $4,420. Take half off first at $4,500–$4,520. Add to longs after a firm break above $4,525, targeting $4,550–$4,600.

Swing traders:

Wait for two signals: ① hold $4,470 and rebound, then enter on the right side targeting $4,550+; ② break below $4,450, then stay on the sidelines and wait for $4,400 or even $4,320 before buying in batches. Take profits in stages: gradually reduce positions at $4,500/$4,550/$4,600.

Long-term believers:

Make 3–5 staged purchases in the $4,400–$4,470 range. Central-bank gold buying + de-dollarization + fiscal concerns—the structural bullish thesis remains unchanged.

Gold now looks just like Bitcoin after March 2020—

99% of people think “it’s risen too much and should pull back,” yet it went from $4,000 all the way to $4,500+.

The day $4,525 breaks, you’ll realize:

It wasn’t that gold had failed—it was that you chased every surge and cut losses during every pullback.

At $4,470, do you dare get on board? #BTC升破70000美元日内涨幅8.3% #ETH暴涨20%突破2300美元 #美财政部回购与豁免信号驱动加密大涨 $BTC $XAU $XAUT $MU $SNDK

Is the bull market really here?

The market has gradually started criticizing storage, but it doesn’t seem loud enough yet. You know what I mean?

HYPE at $72—would you dare chase it?

First, the surface: a violent rebound, nearing the previous high.

Over the past 24 hours, HYPE surged directly from a low of $58.7 to above $72, up more than 22%. The intraday high reached $74.2, just one step away from the all-time high of $76.85 on June 16. Its market cap soared to $18.2 billion, surpassing LINK and ADA and breaking into the top ten. 24-hour trading volume surged to over $1.5 billion, with short liquidations accounting for an extremely high proportion.

It broke above all moving averages on heavy volume. RSI has entered overbought territory but is not yet extreme. ATH is within sight, but don't FOMO.

First: the U.S. Treasury is handing out money—“QE Lite” has directly ignited the entire market.

Starting September 9, the long-term Treasury buyback size will double from $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion. Long-term yields quickly fell, the dollar weakened, and risk assets took off across the board.

Equivalent to sprinkling tens of billions of dollars in additional liquidity into the market every month

As risk-free rates fall, funds are forced to seek higher-yielding assets

BTC surged from 64k to 69k+, while ETH and SOL followed

As the high-beta leader in perp DEXs, HYPE amplified the gains by more than 3x.

$500 million in short positions was liquidated, one of the largest amounts in history.

Second: Hyperliquid is not vaporware.

99% of protocol fees are used to buy back and burn HYPE, with cumulative buybacks totaling nearly $1 billion over the past 12 months

Daily revenue is stable—a genuine “cash-flow DeFi” project

Maximum supply is approximately 1 billion, with only 25% currently circulating and no major VC sell-offs by the team

The HIP-3 open market (including SpaceX stock tokens, etc.) continues to grow in volume, bringing in new traffic

The spot ETF has launched and is seeing net inflows, while Multicoin has given a long-term target of $319

Third: technically close to ATH—breakout or double top?

The daily chart shows a strong bullish candle, surging directly from $58.5 to above $72, with a significant volume increase, constituting a breakout on heavy volume. After the June ATH of $76.85, it pulled back and consolidated in the $50–60 range, then exploded after finding support near the rising trendline recently.

The bulls and bears are going head-to-head—you decide

On one side (bulls):

Macro “QE Lite” liquidity improvement, with risk assets benefiting across the board

Real revenue + buyback-driven deflation, with extremely solid fundamentals

Near ATH, with a target of 100+ after the breakout and huge upside potential

24-hour volume of $1.5 billion+, a breakout on heavy volume, and genuine buying pressure

On the other side (bears):

Near ATH, facing the combined pressure of trapped and profit-taking holders

Funding rates have turned positive, longs are crowded with leverage, and a pullback could easily trigger a cascade

The unlock schedule is unknown, creating potential selling pressure

RSI is overbought and needs short-term consolidation

Key levels

Resistance above: 74–76 (ATH zone) → 80+ → 100

Support below: 70–68 (intraday pullback) → 65–62 → 58–56 (iron floor)

Trading strategy

Short-term traders:

Aggressive traders: If 70–71 holds with rising volume, cautiously chase longs with a small position; stop-loss at 68, targets at 74–76, and 80 on a breakout. Conservative traders: Wait for a pullback to 68–70 or the 65 area to stabilize before entering.

Swing traders:

Buying the dip is the main strategy. Build positions in batches at 65–68, set a stop-loss below 58, take half off at 74–76, and use a trailing take-profit toward 100 after the breakout.

Long-term believers:

Accumulate in batches below 60. HYPE is the undisputed leader in the DeFi derivatives sector, with revenue, buybacks, and institutional backing. In the long term, 100+ is just the starting point.

HYPE now feels like SOL in 2023—

99% of people thought “it has gone up too much,” yet it rose from $20 all the way to $200.

On the day $76.85 breaks, you will realize:

It wasn't that HYPE was incapable—it was that you got off before takeoff every time.

At $72, would you dare chase it? #BTC升破70000美元日内涨幅8.3% #ETH暴涨20%突破2300美元 #币圈人回归原生家庭 $BTC $SOL $HYPE $SNDK $MU

I'm such a noob. I happened to write it right before the big rally. I forgot to add to my $HYPE position. Luckily, there's still bitcoin:native.

The period before the U.S. CLARITY Act is passed will be the biggest growth opportunity in crypto in the next three years. The period after the CLARITY Act is passed and before the midterm elections will be the second-biggest growth opportunity in crypto in the next three years.

SanDisk at $1,590—are you buying the dip?

First, the surface: epic bullish news, followed by a plunge.

At the August 13 Investor Day, SanDisk announced its new NBM business model, with 8 customers signed, covering approximately 50% of bits in FY2027, a minimum contract value of $93.9 billion, and targets for annual revenue growth in the mid-to-high teens and an 80% gross margin from FY2028 to FY2030.

Then it rose 31% in three days, followed by a 12.5% drop in two days. Those who chased the rally were left hanging at the $1,800 peak. A report that was supposed to change the company's fate turned into a retail-investor slaughterhouse.

First: The $93.9 billion in contracts is not empty hype.

What is NBM? Simply put—SanDisk signed multi-year locked-in contracts with 8 top-tier customers, covering half of its shipments in FY2027 and two-thirds in FY2028. The minimum contract value is $939 billion, with guaranteed pricing.

The company's targets: annual revenue growth in the mid-to-high teens from FY2028 to FY2030, an 80% gross margin, a 75% operating margin, a 50% FCF margin, returning 100% of excess cash to shareholders, and an authorized $15.5 billion buyback.

Second: The drop is not because the company is bad, but because it rose too fast.

Before Investor Day, SNDK was around $1,500. It surged to above $1,800 in three days, a 31% gain. Then it pulled back 12% over two days to $1,590.

It dropped, but nothing about the fundamentals changed.

The $93.9 billion contract is still in place, the 80% gross-margin target remains, and the NAND shortage is still expected to continue through 2027.

Third: HBF—the next bottleneck for AI.

Enterprise SSDs already account for nearly 48% of global NAND shipments, while demand for storage from AI data centers is growing explosively. As a pure-play NAND Flash player, with vertical integration, a Kioxia joint venture, and leadership in enterprise SSDs, SanDisk is a core asset in this sector.

Top NAND manufacturers saw Q2 revenue grow 77% quarter over quarter, with ASPs rising sharply while supply growth remained constrained. The NAND shortage will continue through 2027 and beyond, and SanDisk is one of the biggest beneficiaries.

The bulls and bears—judge for yourself

On one side:

NBM contracts cover 50% of FY2027 bits, with a minimum value of $93.9 billion

Target gross margin of 80% and operating margin of 75%

JPMorgan price target of $2,250 / Bernstein price target of $3,000

NAND shortage continuing through 2027, with explosive AI storage demand

Enterprise SSDs account for 48% of NAND shipments and are still growing

On the other side:

After rising 31% in three days, it fell 12% in two days, burying those who chased the rally

A 34% pullback from the ATH of $2,354, with a huge overhang of trapped holders

Weak consumer electronics demand

Perpetual OI of $1.73 billion; excessive leverage could easily trigger a cascade of liquidations

Cyclical risks and intense competition in the storage industry

Key levels

Resistance above: $1,650–$1,700 → $1,800–$1,850 → $2,000 → $2,354 (ATH)

Support below: $1,550–$1,520 → $1,450–$1,400 → $1,300–$1,250

Trading strategy

Short-term traders:

Scale into longs in the $1,550–$1,520 range, with a stop-loss at $1,480 and a target of $1,650–$1,700. If it breaks below $1,520 on heavy volume, do not catch the knife; wait for below $1,450.

Swing traders:

Wait for a high-volume daily close above $1,600 or a breakout above $1,700 before chasing, with a target of $1,800–$2,000. Alternatively, buy at $1,520 and sell at $1,680, while trading within the range and using strict stop-losses.

Long-term believers:

Build positions in batches at $1,450–$1,550. The NBM model reduces the cyclicality of storage, while AI storage demand is only just beginning. The 2027 target is $3,000+, betting on HBF becoming the next AI bottleneck. But remember—reduce your position before the earnings report in November; you have seen the cost of a miss in the storage industry.

No more than 5% of total capital per trade, with total exposure capped at 20%

Use a trailing take-profit; don't get greedy

SNDK now looks like Nvidia in 2023—

$93.9 billion in contracts, an 80% gross margin, and a $3,000 price target.

But—$1.7 billion in perpetual OI, 10% daily volatility, and a market full of leveraged gamblers will make every pullback feel like the end of the world.

You think you're investing in the leading AI storage company, but in reality, you're fighting the world's most desperate leveraged traders for a share of the meat.

At $1,590, do you dare buy the dip? #美财政部回购与豁免信号驱动加密大涨 #Strategy涨近12% #空头大规模清算 $SNDK $MU $MRNA $NVDA $AAPL

Micron Up 18x! Bottom-Fishing SpaceX and Intel! What Does Top Investment Firm Coatue Mean?
Reductions
1. Applied Materials $AMAT
reduced its holdings by approximately 19.7%, while still retaining a sizable position. As a leading semiconductor equipment company, it has already benefited significantly from the AI capacity expansion cycle.
2. ASML $ASML
significantly reduced its holdings by approximately 40%. Its monopoly position in EUV lithography equipment remains solid, but its valuation is already relatively high.
3. Lam Research $LRCX
slightly reduced its holdings by approximately 6%, but it remains the second-largest holding. Demand for etching equipment in advanced processes remains strong; the reduction is part of portfolio rebalancing while retaining core exposure.
4. TSMC $TSM
slightly reduced its holdings by approximately 4%, but it remains the largest holding. As the undisputed leader in advanced-process foundry services, it has strong AI chip orders; the reduction is primarily intended to control the weighting of a single position.
5. Meta $META
reduced its holdings by approximately 10%. Advertising and AI investment remain ongoing, but growth in its social media business has become relatively mature, with capital shifting toward hardware infrastructure.
6. Nvidia $NVDA
continued to slightly reduce its holdings by approximately 4.4%. Its dominance in AI GPUs remains unshakable, and it has continued reducing its holdings over multiple quarters to realize profits.
7. Netflix $NFLX
reduced its holdings by approximately 31%. Its streaming business remains stable, but growth has slowed.
8. Synopsys $SNPS
significantly reduced its holdings. As a leader in electronic design automation software, it benefits from the semiconductor design boom; the reduction is intended to adjust the portfolio structure.
9. Visa $V
completely exited the position. Its payments business is stable, but it has relatively little connection to the current AI hardware theme.
10. iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF $IBIT
completely exited the position. Crypto assets are highly volatile and diverge from the core technology narrative; after exiting, the focus is shifting to physical AI infrastructure.
11. Other exits $CHYM $SOLS $CHRW
Non-core holdings were fully liquidated, concentrating resources on semiconductor, power, and computing-related positions.
Increases
12. Micron $MU
increased its holdings by approximately 1794% (from 166,000 shares to 3.14 million shares), making it the third-largest holding. Demand for HBM high-bandwidth memory from AI data centers has exploded, and supply shortages are expected to continue beyond 2027. Long-term customer contracts lock in high prices, making Micron the most direct beneficiary of the memory cycle.
13. SpaceX $SPCX
initiated a new position of approximately 18.56 million shares, worth $3 billion, making it the fourth-largest holding. This may be connected to a previous private investment converting into a public listing.
14. Intel $INTC
initiated a new position of approximately 12.08 million shares, worth approximately $1.7 billion. Its foundry transformation and AI chip initiatives are accelerating, its valuation is relatively reasonable, and it stands to benefit from U.S. semiconductor revitalization policies.
15. Cerebras Systems $CBRS
initiated a new position of approximately 7.01 million shares, worth approximately $1.55 billion. It focuses on hyperscale AI chips, with a highly differentiated wafer-scale computing architecture that directly positions it to meet next-generation AI training demand.
16. Forgent Power Solutions $FPS
initiated a new position of approximately 20.5 million shares, worth approximately $1.15 billion. It is a supplier of power distribution equipment for data centers and power grids. The expansion of AI computing capacity is creating power bottlenecks, driving rigid demand.
17. Hut 8 $HUT
initiated a new position of approximately 9.72 million shares, worth approximately $1.12 billion. Its transformation from crypto mining to data center operations allows it to benefit from both power and computing resources amid the AI wave.
18. Amazon $AMZN
increased its holdings by approximately 49%. AWS cloud computing and AI infrastructure investment are substantial. Its e-commerce and advertising businesses remain steady, making it one of the most important cloud service providers for AI implementation.
19. Microsoft $MSFT
increased its holdings by approximately 18%. Azure cloud and OpenAI are deeply integrated, enterprise AI software adoption is accelerating, and its cash flow and moat are exceptionally strong.
20. Google $GOOGL
increased its holdings by approximately 12.6%. Its search advertising moat is deep, Gemini and its cloud business are synergistic, and AI search and advertising monetization have significant potential.
21. Equinix $EQIX
increased its holdings by approximately 16.7%. As the global data center REIT leader, it is directly benefiting from AI computing deployments that are driving demand for cabinets and interconnection, with strong certainty around rental growth.
22. Broadcom $AVGO
slightly increased its holdings by approximately 6%. It has clear advantages in custom AI chips and networking chips, while economies of scale have strengthened following acquisitions. It benefits from data center network upgrades.
23. Eaton $ETN
slightly increased its holdings by approximately 4.6%. It leads in power management and data center power distribution equipment, with the surge in AI power consumption providing strong long-term order visibility.
24. GE Vernova $GEV
kept its position essentially unchanged (minor adjustment). Power and energy equipment are benefiting from the explosion in data center power demand, while products such as gas turbines have strong order volumes.
25. Constellation Energy $CEG
kept its position essentially unchanged. As a clean power supplier including nuclear power, it is supported by long-term power purchase agreements with AI data centers, providing stable growth.
AI investment is entering its second phase: shifting from simply pouring money into GPUs to addressing memory shortages, power bottlenecks, and data center expansion.

The bull run came at just the right time—it's hard not to succeed.
0xbeea1d618e533a387d941f58a7d4c9b7bd377777

BTC at $72k—are you chasing?

Look beneath the surface first: a violent rally, with shorts strewn everywhere.

Over the past week, BTC surged from 62k all the way to 72k, gaining 8–11% in 24 hours and reaching a new high since June. Total market liquidations reached $2.7–3.0 billion, with shorts accounting for the vast majority—BTC short liquidations alone were around $1.4 billion. A large daily candlestick broke through the weeks-long range, with trading volume expanding significantly. The bulls are back, but the short term is already overheated.

First: the Treasury has stepped in. This is the real “rocket fuel.”

On August 20, the U.S. Treasury announced an expansion of its long-term Treasury buyback program—from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation, effective from September 9 through November.

The Treasury directly buying long-term Treasuries → long-term yields fell from 5.34% to 5.19%

Yields fell → borrowing became cheaper → risk assets took off across the board

This is not a Fed rate cut, but the effect is similar

BTC, gold, and U.S. stocks all surged together.

Second: Trump + ETFs—the regulatory narrative has completely flipped.

Trump met with crypto executives, including Coinbase, at the White House. Progress on the CLARITY Act accelerated, and the market interpreted it as “regulatory spring has arrived.” Spot BTC ETFs saw $517 million in net inflows in a single day—the largest in more than three months. IBIT led the way, with cumulative inflows in August approaching or exceeding $1 billion.

Third: $1.4 billion in short liquidations, but the real risk comes next.

Within 24 hours, BTC short liquidations reached around $1.4 billion, marking a historic squeeze. After shorts are wiped out in a liquidation cascade, prices often continue rising on momentum, but what follows is—longs begin taking profits, funding rates turn positive, and new leverage quietly starts building.

The shorts are dead. Who will be liquidated next?

The bull-bear battle is for you to judge

On one side:

The Treasury buys back $4 billion every month, opening the liquidity valve

ETF inflows of $517 million in a single day, the largest in three months, as institutions rush to accumulate

Trump + a crypto-friendly regulatory narrative, with progress on the CLARITY Act

A violent breakout from the weeks-long range, confirmed by volume

On the other side:

Daily RSI is overbought, and the short term is overheated

The move from 62k to 72k has barely paused, leaving massive unrealized profits

Funding rates have turned positive, and new leverage is building

A break below 68,500, the cost basis for short-term holders, would weaken the structure

Key levels

Resistance above: 72k–72,500 → 75,000 → 80,000

Support below: 70,000, the psychological level → 68,500–69,000 → 67,000

Trading strategy

Aggressive bulls:

Open a small long position near 72,000 or wait for a pullback to 70,000–71,000 to add, with a stop-loss below 68,500 and targets of 72,500–75,000.

Conservative players:

Wait for a confirmed pullback before entering, and watch whether 70,000–70,500 stabilizes with increased volume. If there is no pullback, do not chase; it is better to miss out than get trapped.

Bears:

Consider entering only after a break below 68,500 or clear signs of stalling.

Watch the Jackson Hole speech in late August, as macro factors are the biggest variable. Reduce your position first if 68,500 breaks; if the price returns to range-bound trading, admit the mistake and exit.

This bullish candle is a “liquidity feast,” not a “confirmed new bull market.”

72,000 has arrived—can 75,000 really be far away? But history tells you:

Every time shorts are wiped out in a liquidation cascade, longs are liquidated next.

The Treasury buyback runs through November, so the liquidity narrative can continue for three months. But can you withstand the 20% correction in between?

At 72,000, do you dare chase? #BTC升破70000美元日内涨幅8.3% #ETH暴涨20%突破2300美元 #美财政部回购与豁免信号驱动加密大涨 $BTC $ETH $SOL $MU $MRNA

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