Crypto KOL Community & Market Trends

ETH at $2,540—are you chasing it?
First, on the surface: up 34% in 30 days, with retail traders shouting, “ETH is taking off.”
From around $1,800–1,900 in mid-August, it climbed all the way to $2,540 without looking back, up 12% in 7 days and 34% in 30 days. Its market cap has returned to the top two, while 24-hour trading volume has surged. The critical test has arrived: hold here and it takes off; fail to hold and it pulls back.
First: ETFs are buying aggressively, but you may be getting fooled by a short-squeeze rally.
Net inflows were $180 million on August 25 and $192 million on the 26th, totaling nearly $700 million for the entire week last week—the strongest inflow week since 2026 began. BlackRock ETHA is the main buyer, while BitMine bought another 32.4k ETH, bringing its holdings to 32.4k ETH, close to 4.8% of the circulating supply.
The move from $1,900 to $2,540 has already wiped out a large number of short positions through a short squeeze. To move higher from here, it will rely not on liquidating shorts, but on real buying with real money.
Institutions are buying, but their buying pace is slowing.
Second: supply is tightening, providing the strongest medium-term floor.
Staked ETH stands at 42 million, accounting for 33%–35% of the circulating supply. With ETF custody and corporate treasuries added in, less and less spot ETH is available for sale on exchanges. Staking ETFs have already launched (BlackRock ETHB and Grayscale ETHE), meaning institutions buying ETH are no longer merely betting on price movements—they can also earn net yields of just over 2%.
The circulating supply is shrinking, and sell-side supply is drying up
Institutions buying ETH get dual returns from “collecting rent + price appreciation,” making it far more attractive
The Q4 Glamsterdam upgrade will further optimize L1 throughput, so the long-term narrative remains intact
The medium-term direction has not changed, but the short term is overheated.
Third: Jackson Hole is the biggest variable, and it is happening tomorrow.
Today is August 27. The Jackson Hole symposium runs from the 27th to the 29th, and Fed Chair Warsh will deliver a keynote speech tomorrow. The theme is directly “Financial Innovation: Payments and Policy,” which is related to stablecoins and tokenization.
Dovish + emphasis on innovation → risk assets continue to command a premium, and ETH surges directly above $2,600
Hawkish + emphasis on inflation → a level like $2,540 will be hit first
Neutral bureaucratic language → range-bound trading at elevated levels, leaving both bulls and bears uncomfortable
The bulls and bears are facing off—you decide
On one side:
Large ETF inflows continue, with institutions aggressively buying
42 million ETH staked + ETF custody, leaving sell-side supply depleted
The trend is intact from $1,900 to $2,540, forming a bull flag
Hold above $2,550, with targets of $2,600–2,823
On the other side:
$2,546 has been rejected three times, while RSI at 79 signals overbought conditions
Short liquidity is thinning, weakening the short-squeeze momentum
The Jackson Hole speech is a double-edged sword
Whale sell walls sit at $2,550–2,600
Resistance above: $2,546–2,550 (weekly dividing line) → $2,600–2,627 → $2,700 → $2,823
Support below: $2,480–2,500 → $2,400–2,450 (former resistance turned support) → $2,330–2,360 (bull flag invalidation)
Trading strategy
For short-term traders:
Wait for a pullback to $2,480–2,500 to stabilize before entering, with a stop-loss at $2,390, a first target of $2,546–2,560, and a second target of $2,600–2,650.
Breakout strategy:
Wait for the daily close to hold above $2,550, then add on a pullback that holds above $2,530, with targets of $2,600 → $2,700 → $2,823. Stop-loss below $2,520. If a false breakout sends it back below $2,500, exit first.
For swing traders:
Add on a pullback to the $2,420–2,450 structural zone, and chase on the right side after it holds above $2,560. Target $2,820+. Reduce positions first if it breaks below $2,400.
For long-term believers:
Use staggered purchases below $2,420. The triple lockup of rising staking rates + ETFs + corporate treasuries makes the medium-term supply contraction thesis solid. Target $3,000–3,500 by the end of 2026.
ETH now looks like BTC at the end of 2020—
99% of people thought, “It’s gone up too much; it should pull back,” but once ETF inflows accelerated, it surged another 50%.
The day $2,550 holds, you will realize:
It was never that ETH was incapable—it was that you got off the train every time just before the final push.
What is your ETH cost basis?
At $2,540, are you chasing or staying out? #英伟达财报周 #老用户1BTC回归礼 #事件合约赛享1%交易量奖励 $BTC $ETH $SOL

You can farm this Gate event and get a $5.5 prediction voucher. I used 10 accounts and farmed it pretty well. However, there’s a device limit: one account per device. The event is announced in the app, so remember to sign up first.

【How Much Do Female Celebrities Really Make? Would They Need to Pay 50 Million for Surrogacy?】
Is the rumor involving Sun Ge, Jing Tian, and a 50-million surrogacy arrangement actually true? (First image)
I feel like it’s fake, because a celebrity of Jing Tian’s stature shouldn’t be short of money, right?
Speaking of surrogacy, we have to mention Shuangzi.
Zheng Shuang once earned RMB 2.08 million a day. Now stranded in the United States, how is she actually doing?
A few years ago, Zheng Shuang was blacklisted by the entertainment industry because of a surrogacy dispute.
To fight the surrogacy lawsuit and avoid domestic debt disputes, Zheng Shuang has been living in the United States for many years.
She once revealed that her financial situation was not ideal and that she mainly relied on her parents’ retirement pensions to get by.
However, judging from Zheng Shuang’s recent TikTok video celebrating her 35th birthday, her current living environment seems quite good.
In addition, compared with when she first became famous, her face has also changed noticeably. It is most likely the result of cosmetic procedures and looks almost completely different from before.
Because of the debt dispute, Zheng Shuang’s creditors obtained, through relevant channels, the detailed declaration of her domestic and overseas assets submitted to the Denver court in Colorado, United States.
According to the court’s asset declaration, Zheng Shuang has 【a single overseas asset/deposit worth more than $31.8 million】
【equivalent to approximately RMB 214 million and TWD 1.01B】
And this is only one of her assets.
Zheng Shuang, of course, has other money as well.
Some estimates even suggest that approximately RMB 600 million in Zheng Shuang’s assets was transferred overseas.
That is equivalent to approximately TWD 2.87B and $89.28 million.
She truly lives up to her stage name—she seems to be living very comfortably.

$79,800 BTC—chase or stay out?
First, the surface: it rose fast and stopped even faster.
Since August 19, three arrows fired at once—White House crypto policy, Treasury buybacks, and a short squeeze—sending the price from 64,000 to 81,200, up 25% in one week. Then what? It failed to reclaim 80k for two straight days and is now stuck at 79,800, caught between directions. RSI surged to 82, severely overbought.
First: this rally had valid reasons, but the fuel has run out.
The White House hinted that the “strategic Bitcoin reserve may actually buy BTC,” the Treasury pushed down long-term bond yields to add liquidity, and a short squeeze triggered the largest single-day liquidation since 2019.
Then what? The price pulled back after hitting 81,200 and closed below 80k for two consecutive days.
Retail investors are chasing the highs in FOMO, while institutions are quietly selling above 80k.
ETFs saw net inflows for 7-8 consecutive days, totaling $2.2-$2.8 billion, but the figure had fallen to $232 million by August 26—the buying is still there, but the slope has flattened. The most powerful rocket of the short squeeze has already burned out; expecting another short squeeze of the same magnitude is unrealistic.
Second: the PCE data is unhelpful, and Friday’s speech is the main event.
The just-released July PCE showed headline PCE at 3.7% year-on-year (versus expectations of 3.6%) and core PCE at 3.3%; inflation remains stuck between 3.3% and 3.7%. After the report, the probability of a rate hike in September rose directly to 40%.
But the bigger event is tomorrow—Jackson Hole on Friday (August 28), where Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver his first keynote speech, directly addressing “financial innovation and payment policy.”
If dovish / emphasizing liquidity innovation → another push above 80k
If hawkish / emphasizing persistent inflation → first pullback to 76,000 or even 75,000
Third: the technicals have already given you the answer.
Daily RSI is 79-82, severely overbought.
The candlestick pattern is a typical “flag consolidation after a pullback from the highs.” It is not bearish unless there is a high-volume break below 77,800, and it is not a second major upward wave unless there is a high-volume close above 81,200.
Bull-bear showdown—see for yourself
On one side:
7-8 consecutive days of ETF net inflows, totaling $2.2-$2.8 billion
The White House policy stance has turned warmer, and the “strategic BTC reserve” narrative is gaining momentum
The medium-term structure has turned bullish, with the 50-day and 200-day moving averages in a bullish alignment
Open interest denominated in BTC has fallen 11%; leverage has not reached its limit
On the other side:
RSI above 80, extremely overbought; 81,200 has rejected twice
PCE exceeded expectations, and the probability of a rate hike has risen to 40%
Friday’s Warsh speech is a major uncertainty
81k-86k is a dense supply zone, and real selling pressure exists
Resistance above: 80,000-80,500 → 81,200 (the line in the sand) → 82,800 → 86,000
Support below: 77,800-78,500 → 76,500-75,500 → 73,000-74,000
Trading strategy
For those holding long positions from lower levels:
Reduce your position to lock in profits, leaving 1/3-1/2 to follow the structure. Move your cost basis into the safe zone, and do not gamble ahead of Friday’s speech.
For those on the sidelines:
Do not play the hero with RSI at 80. Wait for a pullback to 77,800-76,500, followed by a low-volume stabilization, before entering. Set a stop-loss if the daily close falls below 74,800. A cleaner entry would be at 75,500-76,000 if a hawkish speech creates an opportunity.
Breakout long entries:
Only chase if the daily close holds above 81,200 and a retest does not break below 80,000; targets are 82,800-86,000.
Short-term shorts:
If the price rebounds to 80,500-81,200, volume fails to rise, and RSI forms another bearish divergence, try a small short position. Set a stop-loss above 81,800, with targets at 78,500-76,500.
Risk-control rules:
Reduce leverage to below 5x before Friday’s speech; do not use 20x to gamble on the news
For event-driven moves, use “closing price + structure” for stop-losses; do not get shaken out by intraday wicks
Risk no more than 1%-1.5% of your principal per trade
This move up from 63k has been driven by real ETF money, policy narratives, and short pressure. It looks more like the first leg of a new risk-appetite recovery than a bull trap and distribution. To truly confirm the return of the bull market, everyone is watching for a move above 83,000 (around the 365-day moving average).
In the short term: at 79,800, the bulls have already eaten the fattest part of the move, while the bears do not dare to stubbornly short against the trend. The optimal solution is—to wait for a pullback before getting back in, rather than chase now.
Those who can keep their hands off the trigger at 80,500 will be able to calmly buy the dip at 75,500.
What is your current BTC cost basis?
After Warsh’s speech on Friday, are you bullish or bearish?#英伟达财报周 #老用户1BTC回归礼 #事件合约赛享1%交易量奖励 $BTC $SOL $ETH

$BTC is starting to look interesting again.
Price has found its way back into an uptrend and is now moving inside a rising channel. After the strong move from the lows, BTC is consolidating instead of giving back the whole rally.
That’s the part I’m watching.
If this channel holds and buyers keep defending the higher lows, the next push could take BTC toward the previous high around $82K–$83K. A clean break above that area would finally give us a fresh Higher High and could open the door for another strong leg up.
The setup looks bullish, but I’m not chasing candles here. The channel needs to hold, and BTC needs to prove that buyers are still in control.
One breakout can change the whole chart.
$BTC may be getting ready for the next move.

The amount of content produced by trading-focused creators really depends on the market; when the market is tense, chaotic, at critical points, or approaching a turning point, they can’t help but post 10 times a day on X, feeling like there’s an endless amount to say; in the current market, everything that needed to be arranged has been arranged, and everything that needed to be said has been said. All that’s left is to execute and lie low, so there’s actually not much left to say. Then you might as well promote your private community;

Base isn't particularly suitable for chasing pumps, because given the nature of EVM chains, once a token has been pumped, it can drop very quickly if someone withdraws liquidity. However, Base is very suitable for long-term DCA. Although I saw that the public wallet associated with Mr. Lengjing sold, he actually has a pretty accurate track record. Basecat is one of the obvious Base plays being pushed this cycle with a highly concentrated token distribution. Especially now that Base has been hinting that it plans to launch its own token, it will definitely need to build up on-chain liquidity. So, Basecat

ZEC at $780—are you getting out or buying the dip?
First, on the surface: the positive news has been priced in, and panic is spreading.
On August 25, the Grayscale Zcash spot ETF officially listed on the NYSE—the first privacy coin ETF, a historic moment. The price surged to 888, an 8-year high, and the entire market went wild. Then what happened? It turned downward, dipping as low as 756, a 12% pullback.
A whale transferred 34k ZEC to Hyperliquid, sold 24k for BTC, and placed the remaining amount as sell orders around 780.
First: The ETF has launched, but you may think the positive news has been fully priced in. In fact, the curtain has only just been raised.
The Grayscale Zcash ETF (ZCSH) listed on August 25, holding approximately 393k ZEC with over $260 million in AUM. This is the world's first privacy coin spot ETF, officially opening the channel for institutional entry. And then the price fell 12%.
Bitcoin also fell 20% when its ETF launched back then. And what happened next? It rose from 40k to 70k.
Second: The vulnerability has been fixed, $170 million in funds have migrated to the new pool, and trust has been rebuilt.
The Ironwood upgrade was completed on July 28. The Orchard pool vulnerability was thoroughly fixed, and a new shielded pool was created. Approximately $170 million in funds were forcibly migrated through the “gateway,” verifying supply integrity. The NU7 governance vote is underway, with proposals including issuance mechanism reform (a smooth curve replacing the halving), shorter block times, and 37 retroactive funding proposals.
Third: A signal has emerged on the technical chart that must be taken seriously.
The daily chart surged violently from 560 to 888, with RSI reaching 86 and becoming extremely overbought. A pullback to 780 was inevitable. After finding support at 756-776, it rebounded and is currently consolidating around 780.
The 20EMA is at 640, and the 50EMA is at 560, both far below the current price, indicating that the broader trend remains intact.
In terms of pattern: the weekly cup-and-handle breakout targets 936. The daily chart represents a healthy shakeout of “surging higher, then pulling back to confirm,” not a trend reversal.
You decide in the bull-bear battle
On one side:
The world's first privacy coin ETF has just launched, opening the institutional channel
The Ironwood vulnerability has been fixed, and $170 million in funds have migrated to the new pool
The shielded share has risen to 31%, with adoption accelerating
Weekly cup-and-handle breakout, target 936
On the other side:
A 12% pullback from 888, with short-term overbought conditions still being digested
A whale sold 34k ZEC for BTC, with sell orders around 780 creating overhead pressure
The NU7 governance vote outcome is uncertain (the inflation model may change)
If BTC pulls back, ZEC's high beta will cause it to fall harder
Overhead resistance: 800-816 → 845-867 → 888 → 900-936
Downside support: 760-771 → 746 → 700-720 → 640
Trading strategy
Short-term traders:
Go long after a volume-backed move above 800, targeting 845-867, with a stop-loss at 760. Do not buy the dip below 760; wait for 746 or 700-720.
Swing traders:
Wait for a pullback to 700-720 or around 640 to accumulate in batches (provided BTC remains stable), targeting a retest of 880-900. Add to positions above 900 and look toward 1000+.
Long-term believers:
Systematically accumulate below 700 without hesitation. With the privacy sector, a compliant ETF entry point, and a BTC-like deflationary model, the 2027 target is 1500+.
ZEC right now is like BTC's ETF in early 2024—
It fell 20% after listing, and the entire market shouted, “The positive news has been fully priced in.” And then what happened?
On the day 780 holds, you will realize:
It is not that the ETF is useless; it is that you keep falling just before institutions enter.
What is your ZEC cost basis?
At 780, do you dare buy the dip? #英伟达财报周 #老用户1BTC回归礼 #事件合约赛享1%交易量奖励 $BTC $ETH $ZEC

They are shorting her.

If Bitcoin’s bear-market bottom is already behind us, this cycle may have broken an important historical pattern.
In every previous bear market, $BTC fell to either the Realized Price or the Long-Term Holder Realized Price.
This time, Bitcoin has bounced without touching either level.
Maybe the market structure is changing or perhaps the final bottom is still ahead.
Either way, this chart is worth watching closely.

It really was that simple. $BTC
Markets don't always require complicated theories. Sometimes the cleanest thesis is the one that works.
Most traders don't lose because the market is impossible to understand.
They lose because they abandon their plan, overthink every move, and keep changing their bias.
Keep it simple. Build a plan. Trust your process.
Everything looks obvious once you see it in hindsight.
#BTC #Crypto

The $80k “Real or Fake Breakout”: Is This the Bull Market Restarting or a Bear Trap?
BTC has just completed a “blitzkrieg”—surging 23% within a week from a low of approximately $62,400 on August 15, briefly breaking above $81,000 to hit its highest level since mid-May.
And then? A hotter-than-expected inflation report landed, sending the price back down by approximately $3,000 within hours.
As of today (August 27), BTC is fluctuating between $78,500 and $79,000. It cannot rise, but it is not falling very far either.
Is this rally the bugle call of a bull market, or a bear trap?
Data from Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33 Research: On August 19, the amount of Bitcoin short positions liquidated in a single day reached $1.37 billion—nearly twice the previous record of $757 million set in July 2021.
On August 21, another $739 million in short positions were liquidated.
Spot and perpetual futures trading volumes surged 188% week over week.
In plain English: A considerable portion of this 23% gain did not come from “people wanting to buy,” but from “short sellers being forced to buy.”
This is not the bulls attacking; it is the bears surrendering.
After massive deleveraging, the notional open interest in perpetual futures has fallen to 284k BTC, the lowest level since May.
Funding rates have also returned to neutral.
What does that mean? The shorts that were going to be liquidated have already been wiped out. Those remaining either have small positions or left long ago.
A short squeeze is like pouring gasoline on a fire—the gasoline has burned out, so how much longer can the fire keep burning?
Further gains will require genuine buyers to take over, rather than prices being driven by forced stop-losses from short sellers.
So the question is: Have the genuine buyers arrived?
Last week, 13 US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $1.92 billion, setting the highest weekly record since October 2025.
Cumulative inflows in August have reached $2.72 billion, making it the strongest monthly performance of the year.
BlackRock’s IBIT alone absorbed $1.3 billion.
$1.92 billion is a beautiful number. But the key question is—is this “chasing-the-rally money” or “trend money”?
What is the difference? Chasing-the-rally money rushes in after seeing prices rise and leaves once prices stop rising. Trend money believes in the underlying logic and is willing to withstand volatility.
Today (August 27), BlackRock’s IBIT recorded another $200.8 million in inflows. Fidelity’s FBTC also saw inflows of $25.6 million.
Money is still coming in. But the pace of inflows has clearly slowed.
After tomorrow’s options expiry, will this money continue adding to positions or take profits?
Tomorrow, $6.4 billion worth of options will expire—is $80k a “magnet” or a “ceiling”?
This is currently the market’s biggest uncertainty.
At 16:00 Beijing time on August 28, approximately 81.7k Bitcoin options on Deribit will expire, with a notional value of approximately $6.44 billion.
There are approximately 44,639 call options and 37,061 put options.
Here is the key information:
The max pain point is around $68,000
But call option positions are highly concentrated at the $75,000 and $80k strike prices
The notional value of options within 5% of the current price exceeds $500 million
This means market makers hold a large number of hedging positions. Around expiration, they will need to unwind these hedges, creating enormous buying and selling pressure.
If the price can remain above $80k, a large number of call options will become in the money, buyers will profit, and market makers will be forced to buy BTC for hedging—this will accelerate the upside.
If the price falls back below $75,000, the call options will become out of the money, and market makers will unwind their hedges—this will amplify the downside.
The $68,000 max pain point is like a distant mirror, while $75,000–$80k is the real battlefield.
Is $80k a magnet or a ceiling? We will find out tomorrow.
There is one more thing that many people have overlooked.
Data from CryptoQuant shows that after Bitcoin touched $80,000, the intensity of profit-taking by long-term holders has already become significantly higher than that of short-term holders.
Those “old retail investors” who bought at lower levels and held on for months or even years are actively cashing out around $80,000.
This is not panic selling. It is rational people making rational choices.
Do you think they will sell at the start of a bull market, or at the top of a rebound?
Putting all of the above together—
If:
ETF inflows continue (this week’s data remains positive)
Options pass smoothly (with no crash triggered by massive hedge unwinding after expiration)
The price holds above $78,000
→ Trend recovery confirmed. This rally is supported by genuine buying, not merely short covering.
If:
ETF inflows slow significantly or even turn negative
Options expiration triggers massive selling pressure
The price falls below $74,000
→ The rebound has ended for now. This is merely a “fireworks show” amplified by a short squeeze and macro news.
Many people see a 23% gain and shout, “The bull market is back!” They see $80,000 and shout, “A new high!”
But they have not seen that the $1.37 billion in short liquidations is unsustainable.
Short sellers cannot give you $1.37 billion in liquidations every day. One-time fuel cannot burn a permanent flame.
A real bull market relies on sustained buying, sustained conviction, and sustained capital inflows.
Not on short sellers being forced to surrender.
What does the market resemble right now?
It resembles an army that has just won a major battle—the enemy has retreated (the shorts have been wiped out), but logistical support (ETF capital) has yet to catch up, and there is still a fortress ($6.4 billion in options) ahead waiting to be conquered.
Winning one battle does not mean winning the entire war.
After tomorrow’s options expiration, the market will provide an answer.
But before then, do not let the 23% gain go to your head, and do not let a $3,000 pullback scare you into panic.
$80,000 is not the destination; it is the examination room.
There is only one question on the exam: Is this rally a gift from the bears, or momentum built by the bulls?#英伟达财报周 #老用户1BTC回归礼 #五大联赛赛前预测官 $BTC $ETH $SOL

Bitcoin is at 79000 now
I clearly know it will definitely rise in the future
But I don't dare go all-in
I don't even dare enter easily
I also clearly know I will definitely regret missing out in the future
Just like I regret missing out when it was at 60000
The answer is obviously clear
So why exactly don't I dare take the plunge?
An event with 100% certainty, yet 99% of people don't dare get on board
Why is that?

1. As expected, it was unexpectedly surprising—see Image 1; 2. Whatever you’re thinking, see Image 2; Recently, the broader environment has been quite friendly to risk markets. Yesterday, I impulsively shorted a small position in the strongest Guang 1 and got stopped out, which made me realize something: Whether it’s this round of crypto market action or the U.S. stock market action, timing matters more.

After buying $24 million worth of HYPE at $68.7 in June, this institution, suspected to be a16z’s largest HYPE holder, has now purchased and staked $HYPE as well. Over the past day, they deposited 36 million USDC into Hyperliquid through 12 addresses to purchase HYPE. So far, they have used 24 million USDC to buy 282,090 HYPE at an average price of $81.5. Their current purchased and staked holdings include

$BICO Showing Massive Momentum!
Biconomy is making serious moves today! Sitting at $0.02980 with an impressive +20.89% surge in the last 24 hours and a peak high of $0.03259.
Look at these incredible gains across the board:
7 Days: +56.84%
30 Days: +149.58%
With 24h trading volume reaching over 475M BICO, the buying interest is surging strong.
The Layer 1 & 2 asset is consolidating after hitting local resistance are we preparing for another breakout toward $0.033+?
Keep $BICO on your watchlist! #CandyDrop1BTCForOldUsers #BitcoinETFNetInflow4038BTC

Nvidia’s outlook for next year has already pulled well ahead of Wall Street. CFO Colette Kress said revenue is expected to grow 70% in fiscal 2028, while Wall Street currently expects only 44%. Based on fiscal 2027 revenue of $396 billion, Nvidia could generate approximately $673 billion next year, surpassing Apple and Alphabet in revenue. Jensen Huang also noted that actual demand growth is far higher than 70%, but the supply chain is currently limiting the company’s ability to provide higher guidance.

On the evening of August 26, U.S. July PCE data was released—3.7% year-on-year, above the expected 3.6%, and higher than the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for 65 consecutive months. Core PCE was 3.3% year-on-year, equally stuck.
After the data was released, the probability of a September rate hike rose from 36% to 42%-44%. The dollar posted its biggest gain in nearly four weeks. All three major U.S. stock indexes plunged.
Just one day before the PCE release, BTC had just touched $81,237, breaking above $80k for the first time since May. It rose from $62,800 to $78,900 in ten days, a 25% gain and the best ten-day performance of 2026.
And then? A single inflation report erased about $2,000 of Bitcoin’s gains within hours.
BTC is currently struggling around $78,000.
Breaking down the truth behind the “two extremes of hot and cold” data
🔥 The hot side (inflation):
PCE rose 3.7% year-on-year, remaining above 2% for the 65th consecutive month
Core PCE rose 3.3% year-on-year and is likewise refusing to come down
Prices for services excluding housing rose faster than in June
🧊 The cold side (the economy):
Inflation-adjusted consumer spending—zero growth
Real personal consumption expenditures were flat month-on-month
Real income rose just 0.2% year-on-year, after being negative for several months beforehand
In plain English:
Five years of cumulative price increases have drained Americans’ purchasing power. They have no money left, but prices are still rising.
The New York Times offered a restrained assessment: “The stubborn U.S. inflation problem did not get worse in July, nor did it get better.”
But “did not get better” is itself the worst news.
💊 This is what the crypto market fears most—the beginnings of stagflation
Don’t start telling me that “Bitcoin is an inflation hedge.”
In a stagflationary environment, Bitcoin is neither gold nor a technology stock.
Why?
The Federal Reserve cannot cut rates—inflation is at 3.7%, still a huge distance from the 2% target. At the July meeting, three officials had already voted against keeping rates unchanged and called for a hike. Traders have already fully priced in one rate hike before year-end.
The economy cannot hold up either—consumption is showing zero growth, and income has barely risen. Second-quarter GDP growth of 1.5% looks acceptable, but it was held up entirely by AI chip imports, with imports alone subtracting 1.64 percentage points.
Bitcoin is caught in the middle:
Tell an “inflation hedge” story? Rate-hike expectations are weighing on you
Tell a “risk appetite” story? The economy is cooling
Tell a “digital gold” story? Over the past two years, it has moved with the Nasdaq, while the Nasdaq has moved with liquidity
If the Federal Reserve does not cut rates and liquidity does not loosen, Bitcoin is a sandwich cookie—with inflation compressing valuations from above and a weakening economy unable to support it from below.
Bitcoin’s move from $62,800 to $81,000 was driven by expectations of increased liquidity from the Treasury expanding its Treasury buybacks.
But once the inflation data came out, everyone’s attention immediately returned to whether the Federal Reserve would hike rates.
Your gains depend on someone else’s liquidity operations, but your pricing power is in the Federal Reserve’s hands.
This is not a bull market; it is a borrowed celebration.
Bitcoin rose 25% in ten days, but market sentiment turned negative on the very day the price peaked. Even those pumping it became uneasy.
🎯 Now everyone is waiting for one person—Kevin Warsh
On Friday, Federal Reserve Chair Warsh will deliver his first major speech since taking office in Jackson Hole.
This will be his first Jackson Hole appearance since taking office in May.
What does the market want? One answer:
Inflation remains high—is it caused by one-off shocks such as tariffs and war, or is it a signal that the economy is overheating?
If it is the former—it can be waited out, with no need to hike rates
If it is the latter—then a hike in September may really be necessary
Bank of America warned that if Warsh does not send a rate-hike signal, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield could surge to 5.5%. If he clearly states that he is willing to resume rate hikes if inflation does not fall, the probability of a September hike will jump directly from around 40% currently to a coin toss.
What he says will determine the market’s main trading theme for the next quarter.
I know what you’re thinking.
“So what should I do? Liquidate everything? Short?”
Don’t rush into making any decisions.
Before Warsh speaks, two other things will happen simultaneously:
Nvidia earnings (after Wednesday’s close)—Bitcoin’s latest rally is highly correlated with AI stocks
$6.4 billion in Bitcoin options expire on Friday, with a max pain price of $78,000
With these three catalysts converging, this could be the most critical 48 hours for the crypto market in 2026.
Some say: “Inflation not getting worse is good news.”
Wrong. Inflation has not worsened, but you have run out of money—that is the problem.
Consumption has stopped, but inflation has not fallen.
That is what the Federal Reserve fears most, and what we should fear most.
On Friday, watch how Warsh explains this paradox. #英伟达财报周 #老用户1BTC回归礼 #事件合约赛享1%交易量奖励 $BTC $ETH $SOL

This is really heartwarming. I was almost too busy to remember myself—thank you for always taking such good care of me. You’re not only professional and efficient at work, but also very considerate in everyday interactions. Communicating with you feels especially comfortable; I truly feel valued.
I also wish @_Global continued success, and may everything go smoothly for everyone as we prosper together.
@CryptoLabs_Andy @Lumibb_ @Ceee333_

Shocking! Japanese art master Yayoi Kusama dies at 97
Japanese avant-garde artist and Order of Culture recipient Yayoi Kusama, known worldwide for her iconic pumpkin🎃 works
died of multiple organ failure at a hospital in Tokyo at the age of 97
The news was just confirmed today, sending shockwaves through the international art world
The master who defined a unique artistic style with polka dots, infinity mirror rooms, and pumpkin works leaves behind many unforgettable classics
🕯️