While everyone is watching the nonfarm payrolls, the real opportunity may lie in the “expectations gap”
After Wosh’s Jackson Hole speech, the probability of a September rate hike jumped directly from 35% to nearly 60%. The latest CME FedWatch data shows that the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike has reached 65.4%.
What about Bitcoin? It plunged from above $81k, briefly falling to around $76k. It is now hovering around $79k.
The market has already priced in a lot of a “hawkish Fed.”
Everyone is waiting for Friday’s nonfarm payrolls.
Here’s the question—
What if the nonfarm payrolls happen to land in the “neither good nor bad” range?
Could the market’s “one-sided narrative” be broken?”
July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23k, while the May and June figures were revised down by a combined 103k. Average job growth over the past three months was only around 20k.
On the surface, the labor market looks very weak.
But look closer: The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, a 13-month low. However—the improvement was partly due to the labor-force participation rate falling to 61.4%.
The decline in the unemployment rate was not entirely because labor demand strengthened. Some people simply left the labor force.
The labor market is not in an across-the-board collapse. It has structural problems.
What are the market’s expectations for August nonfarm payrolls?
A Reuters survey expects 58k new jobs.
Deutsche Bank expects 65k.
Wells Fargo expects 80k.
NBC expects 80k.
From -23k to +58k, the market is expecting a “violent rebound.”
The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.1%.
This is interesting—
Has the market already priced in the logic of “weak nonfarm payrolls → no rate hike”?
Or is the market actually pricing in a “rebound in nonfarm payrolls”?
Three scenarios, with three completely different outcomes.
Scenario one: Nonfarm payrolls come in far below expectations (for example, below 30k)
→ The probability of a rate hike falls → BTC could rebound.
But note: July was already negative. Two consecutive weak months? That may not be a “trend,” but a “structural problem.” Under this scenario, BTC’s rebound could be very strong.
Scenario two: Nonfarm payrolls meet expectations (between 50,000 and 80k)
→ This is the most nuanced scenario.
The market is expecting a “violent rebound.” If the data meets expectations—the probability of a rate hike will not fall.
Why? Because Wosh has already said that inflation is still too high. As long as employment has not collapsed, he has reason to continue restraining inflation.
BTC could instead face “buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news” pressure—the market has already absorbed much of the expectation for weak nonfarm payrolls, and if the data is not that weak, rate-hike expectations could instead hold steady or even rise.
Scenario three: Nonfarm payrolls beat expectations (for example, above 100k)
→ The probability of a rate hike jumps → BTC remains under pressure → $76k may not hold.
But there is a fourth possibility—
The market may not need the nonfarm payrolls at all to “decide” its direction.
Because what truly determines whether the Fed hikes rates in September is not nonfarm payrolls, but CPI.
Nonfarm payrolls will be released on September 4, CPI on September 11. The FOMC meeting is on September 15–16.
Nonfarm payrolls are merely evidence from the “employment side.” Inflation data still holds half of the pricing power.
What if nonfarm payrolls are weak but CPI is high?
Will the Fed hike or not?
Where is the real “expectations gap”?
Not in whether the “nonfarm payrolls are good or bad.”
It is in whether “the market’s reaction to the nonfarm payrolls has already been priced in.”
After Wosh’s speech, the market has already pushed the probability of a rate hike from 35% to 60%. Bitcoin fell from $81k to $76k.
In other words—the “hawkish expectations” have already been priced in to a considerable extent.
What if the nonfarm payrolls data comes out and is not as hawkish as the market imagined?
That could be a contrarian opportunity.
This is how Tom Lee of Fundstrat sees it.
He said on CNBC that precisely because concerns about September are already fully reflected in the market, an Upside Surprise could instead occur—the actual performance could be stronger than the market expects.
He believes Bitcoin could reach $150k. The premise is that the Fed keeps interest rates unchanged at its September 15 meeting.
His logic is simple: When everyone is betting in one direction, the market’s elasticity is instead compressed. A little good news can trigger a rebound.
What are you anxious about right now?
Are you anxious that nonfarm payrolls will be too weak → economic recession?
Or are you anxious that nonfarm payrolls will be too strong → the Fed hikes rates?
Have you considered that you may be anxious about the wrong direction?
Weak nonfarm payrolls, lower rate-hike probability, BTC rises.
Strong nonfarm payrolls, a resilient economy, and BTC may not fall either—as long as the market has already finished pricing in the “hawkish” outlook.
What really causes BTC to plunge is not “strong nonfarm payrolls,” but “nonfarm payrolls that are so strong they exceed everyone’s expectations.”
Do not bet on a one-sided direction amid consensus expectations.
On nonfarm payrolls night, the real winners are not those betting on a direction, but those who have prepared plans for both directions.
If nonfarm payrolls are below 30k → watch for rebound opportunities, but do not chase prices higher, because CPI is still coming later.
If nonfarm payrolls are between 50,000 and 80k → beware of “buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news”; the market may have already priced in this result.
If nonfarm payrolls exceed 100k → short-term pressure may intensify, but it could be a better entry point—because rate-hike expectations have already been fully absorbed.
Be greedy when others are fearful, and fearful when others are greedy.
But the premise is—you must first know what others fear and what they covet.
What is the market fearing now? A rate hike.
What is the market coveting now? The narrative of “weak nonfarm payrolls → no rate hike.”
When everyone is watching the same direction, the real opportunity often lies in the “expectations gap.”
We’ll see on Friday.
The probability of a September rate hike is 65%.
Bitcoin has fallen from $81k to $76k.
Everyone is waiting for the nonfarm payrolls.
But perhaps the question we should really be asking is not “What will the nonfarm payrolls be?”
But rather—“How much has the market already priced in.”
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