Market Forecast

This week, the crypto market remained in a volatile range amid macroeconomic disturbances, recent consecutive rate cuts by the FED have boosted short-term market sentiment, but investors’ concerns over structural issues such as long-term inflation, fiscal deficits, and the independence of monetary policy have not subsided. Additionally, the Bank of Japan’s rate hike this month is widely anticipated. Yesterday, Bitcoin spiked to a high before dropping over 2.2%, while Ethereum also surged then retraced, ending the day up 1.2%.

This week, the crypto market remained range-bound amid simultaneous macro and sentiment-driven pressures. Expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike triggered a pullback in global risk assets, while tighter liquidity weighed on market risk appetite. At the same time, rumors surrounding a potential change in the FED chair and ongoing policy uncertainty added to market caution regarding the future rate path. Despite this backdrop, BTC posted a notable rebound on Wednesday, briefly climbing back to around $93,000, showing clear signs of short-term recovery. Technically, downside support remains resilient, and the market has entered a news-driven consolidation phase.

According to Gate Research, the crypto market experienced a choppy recovery this week under shifting macro sentiment. As retail data weakened and several Fed officials delivered dovish signals, rate-cut expectations strengthened, with the probability of a December cut rising to 84.9%. Risk assets saw a moderate improvement in sentiment. After a continuous pullback, Bitcoin found strong buying interest near $80,000 and rebounded to around $88,000, lifting major altcoins as well. However, capital flows remain cautious, ETF inflows are limited, and the broader market still reflects a weak rebound structure.

According to Gate Research, Bitcoin rebounded to around $106,000 this week after briefly dipping below $100,000, driven by easing concerns over the U.S. government shutdown and improving risk appetite. While a preliminary MACD bullish crossover has formed, both trading volume and capital inflows remain weak, indicating the uptrend is not yet established. Ethereum continues to fluctuate between $3,400 and $3,650 with limited rebound momentum. Overall, market sentiment remains cautious, and the recent rebound appears to be a technical correction rather than the start of a new bullish phase.

Gate Research reported that Bitcoin fell below $100,000 this week for the first time since June, hitting a low of $99,932 and breaking below its 200-day moving average, marking the second-largest single-day drop of the year.

Gate Research Institute stated that BTC is currently consolidating at low levels within the $108,000–$109,000 range, lacking a clear short-term direction. ETH is fluctuating between $3,850–$4,050, with selling pressure still present but the decline narrower than in previous periods.

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Over the past week, markets saw heightened volatility driven by recurring geopolitical tensions and stronger than expected economic data. Shifting signals from the United States and Iran pushed oil prices higher, with WTI rising more than 7% on the week. Solid retail sales, ISM readings, and nonfarm payrolls supported a rebound in equities, while precious metals reached new highs. Crypto assets moved in line with improving risk appetite, with Bitcoin approaching the $70k resistance level. On the flow side, BTC ETFs recorded modest weekly net inflows of about $22.3 million, an improvement from the prior week but still limited, while ETH ETFs continued to see net outflows. Quarter end rebalancing and holiday effects led to quick reversals after initial inflows. On chain and trading activity concentrated in oil and precious metals, DEX structure reshuffled, and Meteora volumes increased significantly. Stablecoin supply remained elevated, with USDC edging lower while DAI and USDS absorbed incremental flows, and A

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Over the past week, global markets entered a risk-off phase, driven by hawkish Fed expectations and escalating geopolitical tensions. Climbing US Treasury yields weighed on risk asset valuations. Gold and silver, after strong rallies, each saw corrections of more than 10%. The crypto market weakened in parallel, with BTC dropping below $70,000. Meanwhile, crude oil held firm amid expectations of potential supply shocks, and energy factors continued to disrupt the inflation outlook. On the capital front, both BTC and ETH ETFs recorded net outflows, reflecting a slowdown in short-term capital inflows. Nevertheless, total AUM remained at elevated levels, as long-term allocation capital has not exited the market. On-chain, DEX liquidity became increasingly concentrated in leading and highly efficient protocols, with Meteora’s rapid ascent reshaping trading dynamics. Marginal growth in stablecoin supply stemmed from protocol-based assets, and DeFi credit demand shifted primarily back to stablecoin arbitrage and

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On-chain data shows that DOGE has triggered a rare Hash Ribbon buy signal, which usually indicates a market recovery and upward opportunity. However, the momentum indicator RSI has shown a downward bend. If it cannot break through the resistance level, it may enter a consolidation phase this summer.

This article systematically examines the chain of events behind the October 2025 crypto market crash: from global risk aversion sparked by Trump’s tariff remarks, to the USDe depegging, loop loan liquidations, and the subsequent wave of market maker blowups. It reveals the inherent fragility of high-yield stablecoin mechanisms. The article also shows how leverage stacking can unleash systemic risk under extreme market stress, underscoring the unbreakable financial law for investors: high yield means high risk.