How Do Fees Change the Break-Even Win Rate? Why Can Frequent Trading Erode Profits?

In cryptocurrency trading, some strategies perform well in backtests, but their profits shrink significantly in live trading. The reason may not be poor market predictions, but trading costs such as fees, bid-ask spreads, and slippage. The more trades you make, the more important these costs become to your overall returns.

First, how do fees affect profits?

Suppose the profit target for each trade is 100 USDT, and the planned loss is 100 USDT. If the total cost of each completed trade is 10 USDT, a winning t

The older generation was pretty promiscuous.
Haven’t you heard? They used to get up to all kinds of wild stuff and were pretty bold about it.
So now, whenever we go out to have fun or whatever, they always assume it’s about that.

What Is Survivorship Bias? Why Can Studying Only Cryptocurrencies That Still Exist Today Overestimate Strategy Returns?

In the cryptocurrency market, some traders select currently popular and actively traded coins for historical backtesting, then use the results to judge whether a strategy is effective. But if they ignore projects that have been delisted, lost liquidity over time, or performed very poorly, the backtest results may be systematically biased. This phenomenon is known as survivorship bias.

First, what is survivorship bias?

It refers to focusing only on objects that still exist

What is backtest overfitting? Why might a strategy with perfect historical performance fail completely in live trading?

In cryptocurrency trading, some people keep adjusting indicator parameters, take-profit and stop-loss levels, and entry conditions until backtest returns are maximized. But better historical performance does not necessarily mean a more reliable strategy. Overfitting historical data can instead make a strategy less able to adapt to future markets.

First, what is backtest overfitting?

Backtest overfitting is when a strategy becomes excessively adapted to price movements and

initia:native is making a strong recovery and approaching a major resistance zone. 👀
Price has pushed sharply from the $0.12 base, reclaimed the $0.14 area and is now trading around $0.22 after a strong impulsive move.
The next key area sits around $0.24–$0.26 — previous supply and a potential liquidity target.
I'd like to see price push into this zone, sweep the highs and take liquidity before looking for the next move. A clean breakout and hold above $0.26 would open the door for further upside.
But be careful chasing here. After such a sharp rally, a liquidity sweep followed by rejection c

CATL is pushing to bring sodium-ion batteries to vehicles. These batteries are cheaper and perform better in cold weather, though their energy density remains a concern. The company plans to expand its passenger-car battery swap network to more than 3,000 stations by year-end, giving users enough coverage for city commutes and letting them top up for long weekend trips with a swap that takes just a few minutes.

The battery itself doesn’t hold much charge, so CATL’s solution is simple: It’s okay if one battery pack can’t take you far—as long as there are a few thousand “lifelines” along the wa

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What Is SHAP? How Can We Explain Why a Machine Learning Model Makes a Bullish or Bearish Prediction?

In crypto quantitative trading, machine learning models may predict future price movements based on features such as price momentum, trading volume, volatility, and funding rates. But when a model predicts a bullish or bearish outcome, that does not mean traders know why it made that prediction. SHAP is a method for explaining model predictions by analyzing how different features contribute to an individual prediction.

First, what is SHAP?

SHAP is based on the idea of Shapley values, which a

Major players’ liquidation spree! $BTC A major market shift—who gets wiped out first, longs or shorts?

Retail traders watch candlesticks; pros look at the full picture! Funds are fleeing en masse—is this an exit or a shakeout?

My take: Whale longs have lost 80 million, and funds are seeing net outflows across the board. The bears look unstoppable, but the liquidation map shows shorts above 75000 are all at risk of getting liquidated! And while miners are dumping, newly created wallets are quietly accumulating. The major players are clearly setting up a “kill longs first, then turn around an

⏰ Day 407 Live Spot Execution | Picking Up Chips Below Miners’ Shutdown Price

Foreign media are buzzing this morning: #BTC miners’ average production cost is now as high as $78,000, and the price has fallen to $74k, forcing miners to pull the plug

Network mining difficulty is expected to plunge 6.4% (the biggest drop since the major bottom in late June this year)

No need to buy mining rigs or pay electricity bills—at 03:00:22 this morning, my DCA machine bought ready-made chips directly below miners’ cost:
• Bought today: 400 USDC @ $74,589.9
• Total holdings: 1.7621 / 3.00 $BTC (58.74% c

The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.
- Warren Buffett.

November 9 BTC Long/Short Outlook (Review)

[translate-ref-0]: $BTC
Opened a short near 755 in the morning and exited near 738, capturing a 1,700-point move
Entered on a second test of the 738 low and exited again near 755, capturing a 1,700-point move

[Strategy Review]:
Entered a long position; the first target was reached
The short strategy called for selling at higher levels but failed to materialize.

[Current Market]:
Repeated tests of the 743 level have formed short-term support. The overall trading range is narrowing. Selling is currently heavier, but market depth shows buyers in cont

NVDA (Nvidia) is currently at 182u. You can go long, with a target near 200 and a stop loss at 168.
Yesterday it dipped to 170.88 and then rebounded. The lower wick was long, and trading volume was the highest in several months. It has bottomed.
When news of Huang's affair broke over the weekend, the market dumped first and asked questions later. Yesterday it plunged straight to 170. But Nvidia's business hasn't run into any problems, and the board said it found no evidence of company secrets being leaked. Plus, it reports earnings on the 17th next week, and AI money is still flowing its way.

I was a little warrior as a kid, and a veteran when I grew up.

What Are Precision and Recall? Why Should Trading Models Not Simply Aim for More Bullish Signals?

In crypto quantitative trading, a model may generate a large number of bullish signals every day, but more signals do not necessarily mean more profitable opportunities. If a model frequently misclassifies downtrends as uptrends, traders may repeatedly hit their stop-losses. Precision and recall measure a model’s ability to identify bullish opportunities from different perspectives.

First, what is precision?

Precision is the proportion of samples actually followed by an upward move among all th

Swing short on Nasdaq (1/3 size)
Because we might get a lot of volatility later on today on the CPI news and also because I'm a breakout trader not swing, I opened a 1/3 size short on Nasdaq.
Entry: 27993.80
StopLoss: 28991.28
TakeProfit:25998.86
RR: 2
Plan:
1. Take partial profit at 27,144
2. Move SL to breakeven once a daily candle closes below 27,144

Another parallel universe
Jensen Huang and Huang Le open a small restaurant
Living carefree lives every day

I feel like netizens are going to be driven crazy by Sun Ge. Sun Ge has completely let loose now, going all out. Top-tier @justinsuntron