#Gate股票畅聊季 #美股AI板块遭遇重挫 #作手分析 #WCTCS9
🔥 AI sector rebounds after plunge: Has the industry outlook changed? Could Anthropic’s IPO become a turning point?

Trading focus: $NVDA $AMD $GOOGL $BTC

On November 5, U.S. AI stocks took a beating: the Nasdaq fell 5.5%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped about 12.2%, Nvidia fell 9.3%, and AMD plunged 17.3%.

Does this mean the AI industry outlook has changed, or is it a concentrated repricing of high valuations and capital expenditures?

I. The long-term AI trend remains intact, but short-term valuations need to be reassessed

After the U.S. midterm elections, Democrats took control of both chambers of Congress. The market began to worry that policies on data center construction, energy supply, and AI regulation could tighten, affecting investment in AI infrastructure.

But I don’t think this decline can simply be interpreted as the U.S. giving up on AI.

AI is a key direction in the next wave of industrial transformation. Both the U.S. and China continue to increase investment in AI. The U.S. can tighten regulation and restrict unchecked expansion, but it would be difficult for it to voluntarily abandon the global AI race.

Moreover, regulation does not mean the end of the industry. In the long run, compliance capabilities, technological barriers, and financial resources could instead become competitive advantages for leading AI companies.

Of course, being in the right industry does not mean every AI stock is worth buying at any price. What the market really needs to reassess right now is the payback period for AI investment, capital expenditures, and companies’ profitability.

II. Nonfarm payrolls beat expectations on November 6, lifting U.S. stocks, but a bottom is not yet confirmed

The U.S. added 165k nonfarm jobs in October, well above market expectations of about 65k; the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%.

Stronger-than-expected employment data suggests the U.S. economy has not yet experienced the significant deterioration the market feared, but it could also make the Federal Reserve more cautious about cutting rates.

After the data was released, U.S. tech stocks rebounded: the Nasdaq rose about 1.09%, the S&P 500 gained about 0.32%, while the Dow fell about 0.46%.

It is worth noting that BTC had still been dragged down by the sell-off in AI risk assets, at one point falling more than 5% on November 5, while liquidations in the crypto market exceeded $1 billion.

So my view is that some of the earlier panic may have eased, but that is not enough to conclude that all the bad news is priced in, let alone to declare that the market has bottomed.

III. Anthropic IPO: An important catalyst, but with risks that cannot be ignored

Anthropic has filed IPO registration documents with the SEC, plans to use ANT as its stock ticker, and intends to list on the Nasdaq.

According to the company’s latest disclosure, revenue was about $16.96 billion in the third quarter of 2026 and about $33.24 billion in the first nine months, reflecting very rapid business growth.

But the other side of the story is also worth noting: the company reported a net loss of about $23.29 billion in the third quarter and disclosed commitments of up to $895.4 billion for AI computing and infrastructure spending, including about $69.8 billion over the next 12 months.

This shows that Anthropic’s commercialization is growing very strongly, but its computing investment and funding needs are just as staggering.

The current market talk is that the roadshow will begin during the week of November 9, but a November 5 Reuters report noted that some potential investors considered the previously discussed $1.5 trillion valuation too high. Market volatility could also affect the offering schedule and pricing.

Therefore, Anthropic’s IPO could indeed become an important catalyst for the AI sector, but going public does not guarantee a rising stock price, nor does it mean all AI assets will rise in tandem.

IV. Trader’s trading approach

I remain bullish on the long-term development of the AI industry and continue to follow related assets such as Anthropic, GOOGL, NVDA, and AMD.

But my trading principles won’t change because of one sharp drop or one rebound:

1️⃣ Spot: Don’t use leverage. Watch fundamentals and valuations in stages, and avoid going all-in to buy the dip.

2️⃣ Futures: Don’t try to call the bottom or chase the first big rebound candle. Wait for a price breakout and a confirmed retest before considering following the move.

3️⃣ Risk management: If the rebound fails to form a valid structure or the price falls below a key low again, reassess instead of blindly adding to the position.

I always stick to one principle:

Data is a catalyst; price structure is the trading signal. Let the market provide the answer instead of trying to predict it.

The long-term direction of AI may not have changed, but the short-term market still needs price action to confirm it.

What do you think will happen next after this AI sector correction?

A. The long-term AI outlook is unchanged; remain bullish 🚀

B. Valuations are still high; further correction is needed 📉

C. Anthropic’s IPO will drive an AI rebound 💡

D. Wait for a breakout and retest before entering on the right side 🛡️

Share your thoughts in the comments! 👇

(The above reflects personal views and a review of market activity, and is for discussion only. It does not constitute investment advice.)

#CPI数据前瞻 #Gate股票畅聊季 October CPI will be released at 9:30 p.m. Beijing time on November 10, and is the last inflation report before the December rate meeting. U.S. stocks have fallen for four consecutive weeks, and this report is likely to significantly amplify market volatility. Interest rate futures currently price in nearly an 80% chance of a December rate hike.

CPI will determine which way that probability moves:
Higher than expected: The probability of a rate hike could climb above 90%, with the Nasdaq and semiconductor stocks under the most pressure.
In line with expectations: The probability of a rate hike will largely hold steady, and the market will digest the data in line with existing expectations, with relatively little volatility.
Lower than expected: Rate hike expectations will cool, and tech stocks could rebound.

This time, watch the month-over-month figure, not the year-over-year figure
The government shutdown in October 2025 meant the Bureau of Labor Statistics had no price samples for that month, so it will not release the 12-month year-over-year figure this time.
The market is mainly watching the month-over-month figures: both headline and core CPI are expected to rise 0.3%. Core CPI has risen 0.3% for two consecutive months; another 0.3% increase in October would be seen as a sign that inflation remains very sticky. The housing component is also crucial, as it directly affects whether another rate hike is needed.

Can the struggling U.S. stock market stop falling?
A soft CPI reading could give this downturn a chance to catch its breath. But rate hike expectations are already largely priced in by the market ahead of the policy meeting, and it will be difficult to change the direction unless the data comes in significantly below expectations.
If CPI comes in hotter than expected, and the escalation of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz coincides with continued deleveraging in tech stocks, Treasury yields could be pushed back above 5%, triggering cross-asset liquidity stress.