After a 100% December rate-hike probability is priced in, hot PPI could paradoxically create a subtle possibility that the bad news is fully priced in

This is a counterintuitive perspective, but one worth considering seriously.

The December rate hike is now priced in at 100%, with the probability of a 25-basis-point hike near 90% and that of a 50-basis-point hike just above 10%. The market has fully priced in the fact that “the Fed will definitely hike in December.” With this pricing structure, the marginal impact of a hotter-than-expected PPI report may be smaller than intuition suggests—be

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$ETH Currently trading at 2020.9, down 3.221% over 24H and within the 24H range of 1983.82 to 2091.88. Both the 1H and 4H charts are weak, with price below the EMA20. The 1H RSI is 30.2 and the 4H RSI is 33.9. Volume is only 0.24x, indicating little participation in the rebound. Conditional outlook: only consider a recovery if price holds above the 2085.11 resistance with increased volume; if it breaks below the 1983.82 support and fails to reclaim it, weakness is likely to continue. The key point to review is whether price can hold above 2085.11; if volume does not increase, the hold signal i

Stablecoins on Stable, the USDT-native chain, are up 29.61% in the past 7 days to $29,938,568.
PayPal's PYUSD accounted for all of the rise, adding $6,956,316 to reach $7,331,340.
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$Q has suffered a brutal 90% crash in just 3 weeks.
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#WCTCS9 2026.11.12 BTC/ETH/XAU/SNDK Analysis
The market saw an oversold rebound, especially in U.S. stocks, which rebounded particularly strongly. Further revelations about Huang’s private life have now erased almost all of last night’s gains;
Gold and silver are moving lower to seek confirmation of support, as the odds of a rate hike in early December have risen sharply;
The crypto market has basically gone nowhere;
BTC
Support: 71300/68800/67135
Resistance: provisionally 75475-78425
For now, 74600/72750 are key levels to watch as the upper and lower bounds of a very short-term trading range;

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BTC, after processing the feature sequence, the 1h downstroke has shown repeated bullish divergences. For bottom fishing, just wait for a structural second buy. Don’t fear missing out... A slow bleed isn’t suitable for bottom fishing and holding long-term.

PPI isn't the final word; the December 9 FOMC is—but tomorrow night will determine how steep the path into the endgame starts.

Let's end with a slightly longer-term question. After the PPI release, the real endgame is the December 9 FOMC meeting. Tomorrow night's data can't change the baseline of a “December rate hike,” but it will determine what kind of rate expectations the market brings into that meeting.

If core PPI comes in hot tomorrow night, pushing the probability of a 50-basis-point hike above 15%, the market environment ahead of the December FOMC will feature a stronger dollar, hig

Funding rates show the same cooling. Funding is the fee that holders of long perpetual futures pay to shorts when demand for leverage runs hot. In late September, close to a quarter of altcoins paid more than the neutral rate. Fewer than 5% do now, near the bottom of the two-year range.

Note that open positions are only about 5% below their October peak at constant prices. With most of that leverage still open, a renewed rise in funding would be the first sign of fresh crowding.
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My Bitcoin analysis for the rest of Q4

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Who are some of the loudest communities and bag workers right now I’m looking to scoop more…