Analyst: Bitcoin experienced a "crash sell-off" in November 2025, and Q1-Q2 of this year may see consolidation and bottoming out.

On January 10th, analyst Biraajmaan Tamuly stated that Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH) experienced the most aggressive sell-off phase on record in 2025. Although the scale of their selling has previously caused market turbulence, on-chain data analysis indicates that this pressure may be waning, potentially outlining the next upward cycle for BTC prices. Data shows a significant change in the number of on-chain Bitcoin that has been dormant for at least two years in 2025. Nearly $300 billion worth of Bitcoin that has been inactive for over a year has re-entered circulation. Between November 15 and December 14, 2025, one of the most intense long-term holder sell-off periods in over five years occurred. Tamuly explained that a sharp reduction in long-term holder supply has rarely appeared in isolation since 2019. These instances typically occur during phases when Bitcoin’s trend appears exhausted—whether the rally is nearing exhaustion or during a structural transition. Weakness in price became evident in October, but the most intense sell-off occurred afterward—reaching a record 1.14 million BTC in the largest 30-day distribution peak in history in November 2025. This sequence indicates a “collapse-style sell-off” rather than orderly profit-taking, marking a cycle reset rather than a continuation of the previous trend. Since December, LTH supply has stopped decreasing and has stabilized at around 13.6 million BTC, while Bitcoin prices have entered a sideways range. The long-term/short-term holder supply ratio provides further confirmation. Whenever this ratio drops to -0.5 or lower, Bitcoin either enters a bottoming phase or rebounds to new highs within a few weeks. Last December, the ratio fell to about -0.53, followed by narrowed price fluctuations and stalled momentum, consistent with a cycle reset rather than trend continuation. The consolidation from the first to the second quarter of this year may constitute a bottoming period, and any sustained upward movement is more likely to occur afterward, possibly in the third quarter.