#数字货币领域调整 According to the latest data released by the CME FedWatch tool, the market has formed a relatively consistent expectation for the upcoming monetary policy easing: the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the FOMC meeting on October 29 has reached 87.7%, while the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points within the year (implying another rate cut at the December 10 meeting) has also risen to 65.4%.

Analyzing the recently released macroeconomic indicators suggests that the interest rate cut decision in October is almost a foregone conclusion. This improvement in the liquidity environment will effectively reduce the opportunity cost of holding crypto assets, fundamentally enhancing the valuation level of risk assets. However, investors need to be cautious of the market's "expectation being priced in" phenomenon — currently, the optimistic sentiment has already been reflected in market prices to some extent, so when the interest rate cut policy is officially announced, there may be a muted market reaction of "buy on rumor, sell on news."

Regarding whether to continue implementing interest rate cuts in December, the key is still to pay attention to the resilience of subsequent inflation data. If the core CPI can continue to approach the 2% target, the pace of monetary easing is likely to be maintained; conversely, the Fed's delicate balance between controlling inflation and sustaining economic growth may lead to a more conservative and cautious policy path. Overall, the judgment framework for recent market trends is relatively clear, and investors need to continuously pay attention to changes in economic data to adjust their strategies.