October 23 Gold Morning Brief
Gold saw a one-way collapse yesterday, falling from around $4,145 and successively breaking through support at 4,100/4,080/4,050, before hitting a low near $4,021. The daily chart formed a large bearish candle, with bearish momentum fully unleashed.
Fundamentally, rate hike expectations are a sword hanging over the market. Markets put the probability that the Fed will hold rates steady in October at 84%, but the probability of a rate hike in December remains as high as 90%. This “short-term wait-and-see, year-end tightening” setup means that no rate hike in October offers only a brief respite, while December’s rate hike pricing is the final straw weighing down any rebound.
Another transmission channel: geopolitical tensions are escalating, and the US and Israel have reportedly drawn up specific plans to strike Iran again after the midterm elections. Oil prices have been pushed higher, inflation expectations have heated up again, and the market is pricing in high rates for longer. As a result, gold’s room to rebound has narrowed further, while its holding costs have risen further.
Technically, the large bearish daily candle has broken straight through the Bollinger Band middle line. The short-term moving averages are fully aligned bearishly, the MACD histogram has expanded again, and there are no signs of bearish momentum fading. Although the KDJ indicator has entered oversold territory, it has not shown a clear reversal signal. Any short-term rebound should be viewed as an oversold correction, not a trend reversal, and gold prices could fall further.
On the short-term hourly chart, gold briefly found support around 4,021 and posted a small rebound, but the rebound was extremely limited. The 4,050 area overhead has shifted from previous support to short-term resistance. The short-term moving averages remain bearishly aligned, and the MACD lines continue to run below the zero axis. Although the histogram has narrowed slightly, no bullish crossover has appeared, and short-term rebound momentum remains insufficient. For intraday trading, the main approach remains to sell rallies.
For today’s trading, watch the short-term resistance zone at 4,050–4,055. If gold rebounds into this area and the hourly chart forms a clear upper shadow, a small short position can be opened, with a stop-loss above 4,065 and downside targets at 4,020–4,010. If gold breaks directly below support at 4,020, follow the move and go short, with a stop-loss above 4,030 and downside targets at 4,000–3,990. If gold repeatedly tests the low near 4,021 without breaking below it decisively, a small long position can be taken for a short-term rebound, with a stop-loss below 4,015 and upside targets at 4,040–4,050. However, rebound longs should be limited to short-term trades; take profits when available and do not overstay.
Overall, gold is currently in an oversold correction phase within a bearish trend. During a decline, technical recoveries are generally choppy, so expectations for the height and duration of a rebound should not be excessive. The main approach is to sell rallies, with buying dips as a secondary strategy. Always use stop-losses and manage position sizes carefully to avoid unnecessary losses.
The views expressed above are personal and do not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risk; exercise caution when entering the market. Please manage your position size appropriately and make rational decisions based on your own risk tolerance. #黄金 #伦敦金 $XAUUSD
Gold saw a one-way collapse yesterday, falling from around $4,145 and successively breaking through support at 4,100/4,080/4,050, before hitting a low near $4,021. The daily chart formed a large bearish candle, with bearish momentum fully unleashed.
Fundamentally, rate hike expectations are a sword hanging over the market. Markets put the probability that the Fed will hold rates steady in October at 84%, but the probability of a rate hike in December remains as high as 90%. This “short-term wait-and-see, year-end tightening” setup means that no rate hike in October offers only a brief respite, while December’s rate hike pricing is the final straw weighing down any rebound.
Another transmission channel: geopolitical tensions are escalating, and the US and Israel have reportedly drawn up specific plans to strike Iran again after the midterm elections. Oil prices have been pushed higher, inflation expectations have heated up again, and the market is pricing in high rates for longer. As a result, gold’s room to rebound has narrowed further, while its holding costs have risen further.
Technically, the large bearish daily candle has broken straight through the Bollinger Band middle line. The short-term moving averages are fully aligned bearishly, the MACD histogram has expanded again, and there are no signs of bearish momentum fading. Although the KDJ indicator has entered oversold territory, it has not shown a clear reversal signal. Any short-term rebound should be viewed as an oversold correction, not a trend reversal, and gold prices could fall further.
On the short-term hourly chart, gold briefly found support around 4,021 and posted a small rebound, but the rebound was extremely limited. The 4,050 area overhead has shifted from previous support to short-term resistance. The short-term moving averages remain bearishly aligned, and the MACD lines continue to run below the zero axis. Although the histogram has narrowed slightly, no bullish crossover has appeared, and short-term rebound momentum remains insufficient. For intraday trading, the main approach remains to sell rallies.
For today’s trading, watch the short-term resistance zone at 4,050–4,055. If gold rebounds into this area and the hourly chart forms a clear upper shadow, a small short position can be opened, with a stop-loss above 4,065 and downside targets at 4,020–4,010. If gold breaks directly below support at 4,020, follow the move and go short, with a stop-loss above 4,030 and downside targets at 4,000–3,990. If gold repeatedly tests the low near 4,021 without breaking below it decisively, a small long position can be taken for a short-term rebound, with a stop-loss below 4,015 and upside targets at 4,040–4,050. However, rebound longs should be limited to short-term trades; take profits when available and do not overstay.
Overall, gold is currently in an oversold correction phase within a bearish trend. During a decline, technical recoveries are generally choppy, so expectations for the height and duration of a rebound should not be excessive. The main approach is to sell rallies, with buying dips as a secondary strategy. Always use stop-losses and manage position sizes carefully to avoid unnecessary losses.
The views expressed above are personal and do not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risk; exercise caution when entering the market. Please manage your position size appropriately and make rational decisions based on your own risk tolerance. #黄金 #伦敦金 $XAUUSD
