Is the cryptocurrency market really running out of money? Who is deciding the next bull market?
The cryptocurrency market has continued to decline recently, and many investors have started to believe that no new capital is entering the market. But I think a more accurate description is that the market is experiencing a period of contracting liquidity, investors staying on the sidelines, and asset repricing.
To assess the next bull market, we need to focus on three sources of capital.
First, global liquidity. The Fed’s interest rate policy, the U.S. Dollar Index, and the monetary environments o

Yesterday in the early hours, BTC chose to go long near 72900.

This wasn’t a random attempt to catch the bottom. Price had already gone through a round of declines, and the room and risk-reward for continuing to chase shorts were both diminishing.

What I was more focused on at the time was that after price fell into this area, the decline didn’t continue effectively, and the bottom began to show signs of stabilizing.

Put simply, some of the short-side pressure had already been released. Chasing shorts at this point could instead mean selling near the lows.

So I chose to go long directly ne

Why can multiple seemingly diversified positions still carry the same risk?

Holding BTC, ETH, and then allocating to tokens from several different sectors may make your portfolio look diversified.

But if the market suddenly falls, you may find that these assets are all dropping at nearly the same time.

This does not necessarily mean you chose every project incorrectly. Rather, it points to an important issue:

Holding different assets does not mean you have truly diversified your risk.

I. Why might different assets fall together?

1. Assets are correlated

Different tokens may be affected

Are Higher Returns Always Better? How to Balance Returns and Risk

In the cryptocurrency market, we often see all kinds of enticing opportunities: high annualized yields, staking rewards, liquidity mining, and new projects that appear to have huge growth potential.

But one question deserves serious thought:

If two investment opportunities have different expected returns, how should we decide which one deserves more attention?

The answer is not simply to choose the one with the higher return. Returns are only one part of an investment decision. Risk, liquidity, sources of returns, and potent

Apparently, Anthropic gave conservative Q4 guidance because engineers tend to take time off in December.
Seems like a sensible approach.

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$ARB Currently at 0.1583, down 6.0% over 24H. The 1H trend is weak, with EMA20 at 0.163 and RSI at 53; resistance is at 0.1697. The 4H trend is weak, with EMA20 at 0.166 and RSI at 43; support is at 0.1558. Volume is only 0.54x the average. If it holds above 0.1697, a rebound may be worth watching; a break below 0.1558 would signal short-term weakness. Going forward, watch whether it can hold above 0.1697, reclaim 0.1558 if lost, and confirm with volume. Markets are volatile; for observation only.

Why can more detailed trading records make it easier to spot problems in a strategy?

Many traders have a habit of reviewing their trades, but an effective review is not simply a record of how much they made or lost today.

If a trading record only includes the buy price, sell price, and final profit or loss, you may know that you lost money, but it can be difficult to know why.

The value of trading records lies not in preserving the past, but in helping you identify problems that can recur.

I. Why is recording only profit and loss far from enough?

Suppose two trades both lost $100.

For th

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$BTC $SOL $XAU

Why Do Spot and Futures Prices Trade at a Premium or Discount?

When you open a cryptocurrency trading platform, you may notice that the spot and futures prices of the same asset, such as BTC, are not exactly the same.

Why does this difference occur? Does it mean there is an arbitrage opportunity?

To understand this, we first need to clarify how spot and futures markets work.

I. What Are Premiums and Discounts?

When the futures price is higher than the spot price, it is generally called a futures premium; when the futures price is lower than the spot price, it is generally called a futures

Why can adding more technical indicators actually make trading decisions more complicated?

Many traders go through a phase when they first start studying technical analysis:

Moving averages aren't enough, so they add RSI; RSI isn't enough, so they add MACD; worried that trend assessments are inaccurate, they add Bollinger Bands, volume, and other indicators.

The chart becomes increasingly rich, and the analysis looks increasingly professional—but do trading results really improve as a result?

Not necessarily.

Adding indicators increases the amount of information, not necessarily the quali

Just reading the headline, it’s easy to hear “half of blocks are protected” and assume the entire chain is now much less likely to have problems. Let’s look at what actually happened.
On November 10, security project Phylax Systems officially announced a partnership with Titan Builder, which produces a large share of Ethereum blocks, to bring circuit-breaker rules to mainnet. Apps can define actions that must not occur, and Titan removes violating transactions while assembling blocks so they don’t settle on-chain. The announcement states that half of Ethereum blocks today will undergo these ch

Why Is Position Sizing Sometimes More Important Than Getting the Market Direction Right?

Many traders devote a great deal of time to analyzing the market: when to buy, when to sell, and whether prices will rise or fall next.

But one question is often overlooked:

Even if you get the direction right, an unreasonable position size can still lead to a poor outcome.

Trading results depend not only on whether your judgment is correct, but also on how much capital you commit, how much risk you take on, and whether you can withstand the loss if you are wrong.

I. The Same Market Call, Different Po

How to Identify Market Trends? Improve Your BTC Trading Win Rate with Trend Analysis
In cryptocurrency trading, many people search every day for the best entry and exit points, but overlook a more fundamental question: What trend is the market currently in?
If you haven't clearly determined the market's direction, even using numerous technical indicators may still lead to repeated bad decisions.
First, learn to identify the three basic market conditions.
First, an uptrend. Prices continue to form higher highs and higher lows, indicating that buyers have the upper hand. In this situation, focus

Four candles from 21:00 to 00:00 / 498 million contracts
The 23:00 candle alone: 197.6 million / 5.5x average volume
Dumped from 74372 to 73181 / wicked down to 72815.8
Another hit at 00:00 / 72692.6 / the bottom
Fourteen candles from 01:00 to 14:00 / 298 million contracts / 60%
Recovered 1163 points / on 60% of the sell-off volume
Chart close 73855.8 / currently 73810.1 / both above MA20 at 73696.4
Funding +0.01% / longs are still paying
24h high 74961.5 low 72692.6 / range 3.1%
Touched 74027.6 at 05:00 this morning / hasn't touched it since
Let's talk again if it gets above 74027 / if it can

$PIEVERSE A brutal one-day shakeout: down 19.14% in 24 hours to 1.6925, with a low of 1.6781 and trading volume of 113.6 million—retail traders couldn't generate this kind of selling volume; this is a chain reaction of leveraged liquidations.
First, let's compare the current data with the three historical halving bull-market cycles. In the 12th month after the first halving, altcoins generally pulled back 15-25% before resuming their climb; in the 10th month after the second halving, a similar intraday wick of around 20% appeared, followed by a recovery over the next two weeks; during the thir

Why Are Traders More Likely to Make Serious Mistakes After a Streak of Profits?

A streak of profits should be something to celebrate.

But in the trading market, profits can sometimes bring new risks.

After making the right call several times in a row, traders may gradually become more confident in themselves, less alert to risk, and even start to believe they have figured out the market.

The truly dangerous moment may not be after a string of losses, but when you start to think you can’t make a mistake.

I. Why Does a Streak of Profits Change Trading Behavior?

1. Confidence Gradually Turn