#英特尔财报超预期股价却暴跌 #Gate广场万圣节 💀 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗹 𝗮𝘁 $𝟲𝟱.𝟭𝟴: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗪𝗮𝘀 𝗮 𝗕𝗲𝗮𝘁, 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗚𝘂𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝗪𝗮𝘀 𝗮 𝗚𝗵𝗼𝘀𝘁, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗛𝗮𝗱 𝗜𝘁𝘀 𝗪𝗼𝗿𝘀𝘁 𝗗𝗮𝘆 𝗦𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝟭𝟵𝟳𝟰
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗣𝗲𝗿𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁 𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗿 🕯️
On Thursday night Intel looked flawless. Revenue grew 21% to $16.5 billion, adjusted EPS was $0.52 against $0.40 expected, up 126% from last year, and data center and AI revenue jumped 78% to $7.3 billion, the best growth in 15 years. Gross margin reached 44.1%. It was the eighth straight beat, and the stock had risen about 150% this year before the report.
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗚𝘂𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝗧𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗞𝗶𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 ⚰️
Then came the outlook. Intel guided Q4 revenue to $15 billion to $16 billion against about $17.1 billion expected, a midpoint roughly 9% light, and adjusted EPS of $0.25 against about $0.43, 43% below. Gross margin is guided to about 38%. The causes are a PC market hammered by soaring memory and component costs, and a plant shutdown in Israel that removes about $300 million of revenue. That plant explains only about a fifth of the $1.6 billion revenue gap, so most of the shortfall is demand and supply, not a one-off. Bernstein's Stacy Rasgon called the outlook terrible and cut his target to $75 from $110.
𝗔𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗺𝘆 𝗼𝗳 𝗮 −𝟮𝟴.𝟲% 𝗗𝗮𝘆 💀
Intel closed down about 28.6% on Friday at $65.18, from about $91.30, its worst day since 1974. Nearly $140 billion of market value vanished, leaving a market cap near $350 billion. Options had priced a move of about 9.4%, so the realized drop was about three times the implied range. A close below about $68 meant a worse day than the 2024 drop, and the stock closed beyond it, though just 1% above the roughly $64.50 level that would have made it the worst on record. Dell and HP fell with it, the Nasdaq had its worst day since June, and the US government's stake lost about $12 billion in value.
𝗢𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗼𝗿 𝗥𝗲𝘃𝗮𝗹𝘂𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻? 🧛
The overreaction case: the quarter was strong, data center growth is near 80%, the Israel disruption is temporary, and the stock is still up nearly 80% this year. The revaluation case: Q4 EPS guidance of $0.25 is half of Q3's $0.52, the PC slowdown is expected to last into the first half of 2027, the stock had nearly quadrupled to its June 22 record before this, and it has now lost more than half its value since. The market was not buying the quarter. It was repricing a smooth recovery that the guide no longer supports. The analyst average target is about $114.80, with a high of $200 and a low of $80, so many targets now look stale.
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗟𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗗𝗮𝗿𝗸 🔦
Support: $64.50 (-1.0%), the record-drop threshold, then the April 23 area, since Friday's close was the lowest since that date.
Resistance: $70.79 (+8.6%), the after-hours level, Bernstein's $75 target (+15.1%), the $79.16 after-hours rebound high (+21.5%), the broken $80 zone that held at July's low (+22.7%), and the $91.30 pre-earnings close (+40.0%).
Technical indicators show sell signals. After the April low, the stock had its best day since 1973 with a 24% gain, so violent rebounds happen here, but they started from washed-out levels. A close back above $80 would be the first sign the break has failed.
𝗪𝗵𝗼 𝗘𝗹𝘀𝗲 𝗖𝗮𝗺𝗲 𝗨𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗹𝗹 🕸️
Nvidia's stake in Intel lost about $6 billion in value, PC makers fell, and the technology equipment sector dropped about 4.3%. Alphabet and Amazon also sold off after reporting this week, and the semiconductor index is down 13% since its October high and 21% from its June record. The pattern is the same across names: strong current results, and a market pricing the next quarter.
𝗘𝗽𝗶𝗹𝗼𝗴𝘂𝗲: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗣𝗹𝗮𝗻 𝗧𝗲𝘀𝘁 🎃
For anyone holding INTC, the question is whether the plan survived a gap that no stop could have caught. A 28.6% drop equals 143% of margin at 5x leverage. The facts to re-underwrite are the Q4 guide, PC demand through mid-2027, whetlher data center growth can carry profit, and gross margin near 38%. Decide the level that proves the thesis wrong before the next report, and size so that one gap cannot decide the account.
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