#股票交易分享挑战 Morgan Stanley's latest report on Micron: $100 billion in minimum-price revenue, with contracts beginning to be quantified like backlog
Micron's long-term agreement disclosures most closely resemble a mature order-management system. As of the third quarter of fiscal 2026, the company had completed 16 strategic customer agreements (SCAs). These contracts cover approximately 20% of DRAM shipments and one-third of NAND shipments, with terms spanning 2026–2030.
Except for three automotive agreements, most contracts are take-or-pay, non-cancellable arrangements. In terms of pricing, the contracts set a price ceiling for the current quarter and a price floor for the entire contract period. Fourteen of the 16 agreements collectively correspond to approximately $100 billion in minimum-price revenue.
Micron expects to receive $22 billion in deposits and commitments, of which approximately $18 billion is cash. The company has also begun disclosing remaining performance obligations (RPO). Including agreements added after the quarter, RPO is approximately $100 billion, and at least half of future revenue is expected to come from SCAs. Automotive customers include Qualcomm, Visteon, HARMAN, JOYNEXT, DENSO, Astemo, Hyundai Mobis, Ford, and General Motors.
To put it more simply: Micron is no longer merely telling the market that “customer demand is strong”; instead, it is directly quantifying minimum revenue, cash guarantees, and future orders, making a memory company's earnings visibility begin to resemble that of equipment and software companies.$MU ‌

#股票交易分享挑战 U.S. stocks hit new highs while storage stocks plunge, marking a complete market style shift
In the early hours of August 8, the major nonfarm payrolls night arrived, and the U.S. stock market saw sharp divergence.
Overall, the three major U.S. stock indexes strengthened across the board, with the S&P 500 successfully refreshing its record closing high, while the Nasdaq and Dow also surged. All three indexes posted their strongest weekly gains since April. But a clear style shift was hidden beneath the surface: the broader market hit new highs and most technology stocks rose, while the storage sector alone plunged across the board, creating a stark contrast.
I. U.S. stocks celebrate across the board, with indexes and sectors flourishing
At the close:
✅ The S&P 500 rose 0.62%, setting a new record closing high
✅ The Nasdaq surged 1.3%
✅ The Dow Jones rose 0.28%
The three major indexes all exploded higher this week: the Dow rose 2.96%, the Nasdaq gained 5.19%, and the S&P 500 rose 3.58%, all posting their biggest weekly gains since mid-April. Most large-cap technology stocks closed higher, with NVIDIA and Tesla rising more than 2%, while Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and Meta edged up.
Strong individual stocks were flourishing across the board:
✅ SpaceX surged more than 15%: the large-scale lifting of lockup restrictions did not trigger selling pressure, and funds continued to favor its long-term growth potential
✅ Gold stocks surged across the board: Coeur Mining rose more than 11%, while Kinross Gold and Harmony Gold gained more than 9%, with the sector strengthening broadly
✅ Optical communications stocks surged: Coherent rose more than 13%, while Applied Optoelectronics, Credo, Lumentum, and others all jumped
✅ A batch of earnings winners emerged: Atlassian surged more than 35%, Airbnb jumped more than 17%, and Cloudflare rose more than 5% to a new high
II. The biggest contrast: the storage sector plunges against the trend
Against the backdrop of all the major indexes hitting new highs, the previously hot memory chip sector suddenly weakened across the board, becoming the market’s only major area of distress.
The sector’s overnight leaders broadly fell:
❌ Seagate Technology: down more than 4%
❌ Western Digital, SanDisk, and SK hynix ADRs: down more than 3%
❌ Micron Technology: closed slightly lower by 0.44%
The core catalyst for the sector’s weakness was the concentrated target-price cuts from several institutions, which put clear pressure on sentiment. Jefferies sharply cut its target price for SanDisk from $3,000 to $1,750, a substantial reduction; Citi also lowered its expectations, cutting SanDisk’s target price from $2,500 to $2,100. Under the dual impact of cooling institutional expectations and earlier gains being priced in, the storage sector entered a period of valuation digestion.
III. Nonfarm payrolls weaken more than expected, sharply cooling rate-hike expectations
The biggest variable on this nonfarm payrolls night was the sharp weakening in employment data.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly contracted in July, directly weakening market bets on a September Federal Reserve rate hike.
The latest interest-rate futures data show that the probability of a September rate hike fell sharply to 44%, from 67% a week ago and 55% the previous day. At the same time, expectations for cooling inflation also increased.
Bloomberg economists forecast that July core CPI, due to be released next week, could fall to a five-year low. As inflationary pressure eases further, the rationale for a hawkish rate hike by the Federal Reserve continues to weaken, making it highly likely that rates will remain unchanged in September. Combined with rising expectations for a U.S.-Iran peace agreement, continued cooling in oil prices will further ease global inflation concerns and provide a loose environment for U.S. stocks to strengthen.
IV. A powerful earnings season supports the U.S. stock rally
In addition to favorable monetary-policy expectations, the explosive earnings season has provided the core support for the latest round of record highs in U.S. stocks. So far, 436 S&P 500 companies have reported results, with 85.1% beating earnings expectations, far above the historical average of 68% since 1994. The exceptionally strong earnings data have effectively dispelled market concerns over high AI investment and spending, while risk appetite continues to rise.
Several leaders beat both earnings and guidance expectations: ✅ Atlassian: Revenue, EPS, and data-center revenue all exceeded expectations, while next-quarter guidance was raised again, sending the stock up 35%
✅ Airbnb: Bookings, revenue, and profit margins were all impressive, and the company raised its full-year revenue and profit-margin guidance
✅ Cloudflare: Results beat expectations and full-year outlook was raised, sending the stock to a new record high
V. The market has now entered a new phase: cooling inflation, fading rate-hike expectations, and blockbuster corporate earnings are converging to support continued record highs in U.S. stocks. But market style has quietly shifted: high-level storage names are facing institutional rebalancing and valuation digestion, while technology subsectors with strong earnings certainty and high growth, along with gold, optical communications, and consumer-internet names, continue to strengthen. $CRDO ‌