#Gate直通IPO第三期Anthropic Is Anthropic’s $1.4 trillion market cap worth it?
A $1.4 trillion market cap isn’t exactly outrageous, but it’s only justifiable on a stretch. It’s supported by fast revenue growth, not profits already earned at that scale.
Why it has some support
· Revenue is growing rapidly: Annualized revenue was about $81 billion at the end of October, up about 47% quarter over quarter in Q3.
· The revenue multiple isn’t high: $1.4 trillion divided by annualized revenue is about 17x, compared with about 60x for SpaceX.
· Institutional demand is strong: The IPO was about six times oversubscribed, with most shares bought by large institutions.
· Higher than its May private valuation: Its post-money valuation in May was about $965 billion; on a fully diluted basis, it rose about 46% in six months.
Where the case falls short
· Growth has slowed significantly: Quarter-over-quarter growth was about 144% in Q2, falling to about 47% in Q3[5].
· Compute bills are largely locked in: Purchase and lease commitments total about $895.4 billion, most of which must be paid “whether used or not.”
· Revenue could shrink at any time: 80% of revenue is usage-based, so customers can use less; compute costs, however, are contractually committed in advance.
· Profits are not yet stable: Q3 operating loss was $567 million, and the full-year net loss is about $23.3 billion.
· Shareholders have no say: The public will never hold majority voting rights, so the valuation deserves a governance discount.
What the market thinks
· Morningstar: Considers it undervalued, with a fair value of about $1.7 trillion, though its reasonable range spans from $500 billion to $3 trillion.
· HSBC: Considers around $1 trillion a more comfortable valuation.
· Huxiu: After discounting for profitability, revenue attribution, and voting rights, values it at $1.11 trillion–$1.48 trillion.
So, for $1.4 trillion to hold up, revenue must continue growing rapidly and gradually spread out the compute bills. If growth slows significantly, the valuation could easily be revised downward.

#比特币跌破7万美元 For now, the short-term outlook points to further downside. $70,000 has been breached, spot ETF funds are still flowing out, and the rebound looks more like a recovery after an excessive drop than a reversal.
Why it could still move lower
· Rate hike expectations are weighing on the market: Fed officials have taken a hawkish tone, and the market is concerned about a rate hike in December. When the dollar strengthens, assets like Bitcoin typically fall first.
· ETFs are seeing outflows: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows for six consecutive trading days, totaling about $1.722 billion.
· Leverage is being flushed out: After the drop below $70,000, nearby long positions were liquidated en masse. Liquidations over 24 hours totaled about $1.64 billion, nearly 90% of which were longs.
Where is the next support?
· $68,000–$68,200: This is the most immediate reference point at present, and is near this year's June low.
· $66,500–$67,000: The 200-week moving average is around $67,148, a level long-term funds are watching.
· $62,000–$65,000: Further down, long-term holders bought about 476,000 coins in this range this year, making it a deeper support level.
What two things to watch for in a rebound
1. Hold near $68,000 and close with a long lower wick on increased volume.
2. Reclaim $70,000, ideally returning above $72,000. Only if both happen will it count as a consolidation recovery; rising back above $70,000 alone is still just a rebound.#WCTCS9 $BTC ‌