Is Musk going to build the "American Party"? Polymarket collaborates with X, chances of winning rise.

Elon Musk may establish a new political party called “American Party” in 2025? This bold idea has sparked heated discussions in the Crypto Assets betting market Polymarket, with the odds soaring to 17%! Meanwhile, the public “feud” between Musk and Trump continues to escalate, and TSL’s stock price is experiencing violent fluctuations. What story lies behind this? Let’s find out!

Musk’s Party Building Probability Soars, Polymarket and X Join Forces

According to the latest data from the decentralized prediction market Polymarket, as of now, the probability of Musk creating a new political party in 2025 has surged from 7% in June to 17%, with an increase of 2% in the past 24 hours. Behind this market enthusiasm, the amount of bets has exceeded $416 million! Polymarket clearly states that if Musk makes a “clear” official announcement, the market will determine it as “yes”.

More notably, Musk’s X platform recently announced a formal partnership with Polymarket, making Polymarket the official prediction market partner of X. The strong collaboration between the two combines Polymarket’s prediction data with X’s real-time dynamics, providing users with more accurate trend insights. This has also further sparked discussions about the possibility of Musk founding a political party.

Little Knowledge:

Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market platform where users can bet on future events using Crypto Assets. However, due to regulatory restrictions, US residents are currently unable to participate.

Musk and Trump “clash”, party-building plan comes to light

The catalyst for this heated discussion originates from the escalating public dispute between Musk and former US President Trump.

• Cause of the event: Musk accused the Trump administration of withholding documents related to Jeffrey Epstein, causing an uproar.
• Trump strikes back: Trump publicly expressed his “disappointment” with Musk, calling him “crazy,” and threatened to cancel federal contracts and subsidies for Musk’s companies.
• Musk strikes back: Musk not only criticized Trump’s tariff policy as “triggering a recession in the U.S.”, but also shared a post stating “Trump should be impeached”, with a strong sense of hostility.

Just as the “mutual tearing” between the two parties escalates, Musk initiated a striking poll on the X platform: “Is it time to establish a new political party in the United States that represents 80% of the moderates?”

The results of the poll showed that more than 5.63 million users participated, of which 80.4% supported the establishment of a new party, and only 19.6% opposed. Musk then forwarded the results, announcing that the new party would be named “The America Party” (The America Party), and said: “The people have made their voices heard, and this is fate!” ”

TSL stock price “roller coaster”, market reaction is strong

The dispute between Musk and Trump not only ignited public opinion but also directly impacted the capital market.

• June 5: TSL’s stock price was affected by the verbal battle between both parties, plunging by 18% at one point, but closing with a narrowed decline of 14%. However, its market value still evaporated by approximately $153 billion, marking the largest single-day drop in nearly three months.
• June 6: TSL stock price rebounded 4.3% in early trading on the US stock market, but still failed to fully recover the losses from the previous day.

This turmoil has left investors uncertain about Musk’s business empire and political direction, adding more drama to the potential establishment of the “American Party.”

“American Party” Vision: Representing 80% of Centrists?

Elon Musk proposed that the core idea of the “American Party” is to represent the group of the “middle 80%”, attempting to break the traditional pattern of the two-party system in the United States. This idea has sparked widespread discussion:

• Supporters believe that Musk’s influence and resources may drive a new political party centered on rationality, science, and innovation, attracting centrist voters tired of traditional politics.
• Opponents question: Building a party requires a large organization and financial support, and Musk’s controversial remarks and conflicts with Trump may undermine his political appeal.

In any case, Musk’s idea of an “American Party” has undoubtedly dropped a bombshell on American politics.

Will Musk take the first step to establish a party?

Although Musk and Trump showed a brief signal of “reconciliation” on the evening of the 5th, Trump referred to Musk as “crazy” again the next day, and their relationship remains tense. Will Musk’s plan to establish a party turn from a voting fantasy on the X platform into reality? The 17% probability on Polymarket may just be the beginning.

At the same time, the collaboration between X and Polymarket will provide us with more real-time data to gain insights into the direction of this event. Musk’s next move, whether continuing to “attack” Trump or officially preparing for the “American Party”, will become the global focus in 2025.

Conclusion

From tech giant to political rising star, every step of Musk draws global attention. Is his “American Party” concept a spontaneous idea or a well-thought-out strategy? Let’s wait and see!