The Federal Reserve (FED) has a 97.4% probability of keeping interest rates steady in June, and the probability of the first rate cut in July has risen to 30.8%.

According to the data platform “The Federal Reserve Watch”: The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping the interest rate unchanged in June is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 2.6%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping the interest rate unchanged until July is 69.2%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 30.0%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 0.8%.