① The vast majority of economists polled by Reuters said the Fed's rate hike cycle may be over, with a slim majority now expecting the Fed to wait until at least the end of March before cutting rates. ②As the U.S. economy faces almost all negative forecasts, the unemployment rate is at a low point in more than 50 years, and the median probability of a recession within a year has dropped to 40%, the first time since September 2022 that it has fallen below 50%. ③Among the 110 economists surveyed from August 14 to 18, 99 economists (90%) said that the Fed will maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 5.25-5.50% at the September meeting, which is in line with the Market pricing remains consistent. An 80% majority does not expect further rate hikes this year. ④ This is in stark contrast to the minutes of the Fed's latest meeting, which showed policymakers were divided on the need to raise interest rates again. After raising interest rates by 25 basis points last month, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell left the option open on whether to raise rates or pause them at the September meeting. ⑤ Sal Guatieri, senior economist at Montreal Capital Markets, pointed out: "Chairman Powell said that the interest rate decision will depend on upcoming economic growth and inflation data, and we suspect that the signs of slowing shown by these data will be enough to prevent further interest rate hikes. However, given the expected long path for inflation to return to target, lowering the current range for the fed funds rate will not begin until around June 2024."