Myriad CEO Rejects Hype, Says Predictions Markets Growth Signals Fundamental Information Pricing

Blockchain-based prediction markets are rapidly gaining mainstream prominence following their accurate forecasting of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Loxley Fernandes, CEO of Myriad, predicts adoption will “snowball,” with trusted media coverage reducing the perceived risk profile for new users.

Regulatory Thaw Under the Trump Administration

Blockchain-based prediction markets have achieved a new level of mainstream prominence and popularity following the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi demonstrated superior forecasting capabilities, outperforming most traditional polling models and media pundits by consistently giving the eventual winner better odds, particularly in key swing states.

This performance has cemented their growing reputation as a more dynamic and financially incentivized forecasting tool. However, the validation for these platforms has extended beyond electoral performance and into the halls of U.S. regulation, significantly changing their operating landscape.

Since the ushering in of the Trump administration, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and other U.S. regulators have notably abandoned their hardline stance towards blockchain prediction markets. This shift is translating into crucial regulatory legitimacy for the industry.

This validation has taken the form of CFTC-issued licenses and “no-action” relief, which ensures event contracts get regulated as financial derivatives. For instance, in September, the CFTC issued a targeted “no action” letter granting the Polymarket operator relief from swap data reporting and recordkeeping requirements for event contracts. The move effectively approved Polymarket’s return to the U.S. market, some three years after it settled with the CFTC over unregistered derivatives trading.

Additionally, on Sept. 5, the CFTC and Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced a collaborative effort to clarify the jurisdictional boundaries for prediction markets. This suggests that event contracts will be jointly regulated by the two bodies, further boosting their credibility.

Growth Is Fundamental, Not Hype

Loxley Fernandes, co-founder and CEO at Myriad, a prediction market, believes these factors only mean the pace of adoption will increase going forward.

“Additionally, I believe adoption of prediction markets will snowball. A few vocal breakout wins get early adopters to participate and that leads to more coverage, leads to more adoption. The perceived risk profile is significantly lower when trusted media outlets confidently quote and recognize the data,” Fernandes explains.

While the bolstered credibility is seen in surging trading volumes, some critics argue the volume surge is based on hype surrounding the decentralised technologies and artificial intelligence (AI) on which the platforms are anchored.

However, the Myriad CEO disagrees and argues that the current growth of prediction markets is fundamental. He addresses the potential scale of the industry by comparing it to the existing financial ecosystem, which is currently characterized by approximately “$10 trillion per day in transactional volume” in an attempt to transfer financial risk.

“If you are considering Total Addressable Market, Information as an asset class (transfer of epistemic risk or information uncertainty) has the potential for a similar scale and impact that current financial products do,” Fernandes said.

In the CEO’s view, every price in the financial system is an information forecast, but until recently, this informational value has never been directly priced. He adds that when this starts happening, “people will recognize the growth of these products as fundamental, not hype.”

Manipulation and Integrity Challenges

Turning to regulation, Fernandes expressed favor for the designated contract market (DCM) frameworks that the CFTC currently applies. Still, he believes regulation is most effective when the assigned agencies are informed.

“I think at this stage there is a lot of education and growth happening at the CFTC that will give us more freedom to store information and transact onchain,” he added.

Despite the positive regulatory momentum, integrity remains a challenge. A recent Columbia University study found that while blockchain prediction markets are powerful and accurate forecasting tools, it also showed evidence of widespread use of wash trading. This manipulative practice is intended to create the false appearance of high trading volume and liquidity.

To mitigate this and other criminal practices, Fernandes said platforms will have to face a degree of standardization, including the use of surveillance services. However, this will not completely eradicate the problem, as bad actors will always “attempt to manipulate markets: informational, financial or otherwise.”

Still, Fernandes believes the predictions markets can get ahead of bad actors by integrating with social verification layers. “A big piece of the future of prediction markets is integration with social verification and trust layers. There’s a lot of transparent transactional data out there and sacrificing reputation for dollars should be less appealing as it becomes increasingly challenging to obfuscate bad behavior,” the CEO argued.

On the question of whether prediction markets pose specific risks to the integrity of public discourse or political processes, Fernandes admits that there are many, but insists that the ultimate job of platforms is “to embed integrity, not just liquidity.”

“Our mitigation processes from transparency to meeting regulatory standards, promoting media literacy, etc. are all designed to ensure the net positive benefits of truth infrastructure outweigh the risk,” Fernandes concluded.

FAQ 💡

• What are blockchain prediction markets? They are platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi where users trade event‑based contracts.
• Why did they gain prominence in 2024? They outperformed polls by accurately forecasting the U.S. presidential election, especially in swing states.
• How are regulators responding? The CFTC and SEC now provide licenses and “no‑action” relief, granting legal legitimacy to event contracts.
• What challenges remain? Integrity issues like wash trading persist, requiring surveillance and social verification to protect market trust.