After ETH Falls Below $3,000, On-Chain Signals Show Growing Divergence — Buy the Dip or Stay Cautious?

The background of ETH falling below $3,000

Recently, the overall crypto market has shown signs of fatigue, mainly due to fluctuations in U.S. economic data, concerns about interest rate policies, and a decrease in global risk appetite for funds. ETH lacks new positive stimuli, and with selling pressure accumulating above $3,000, the price has naturally adjusted downwards.

In addition, the Ethereum ecosystem has recently lacked significant growth drivers, such as the launch of large projects or protocol updates, resulting in limited capital inflow.

Why are on-chain and market signals disconnected?

On-chain bullish news: Continuous net outflow of ETH from exchanges.

The decline in exchange balances often indicates that investors are depositing ETH into long-term holding addresses, and they are no longer prepared to sell in the short term. This signal has often become a precursor to a rebound after price bottoms in the past.

On-chain bearish: Network activity declines, Gas fees languish

Low gas fees are not always a good thing.

It means:

• on-chain交易减少
• User activity decline
• DeFi and NFT market trading has cooled down.

This is an important signal of market cooling.

Whale behavior is chaotic

Some whale addresses are buying, while others are selling, creating a “hedging state,” which is also the core reason why ETH cannot break out of its trend.

Technical pressure and potential pullback targets

The technical aspect is still under significant pressure:

• $3,000: Short-term key resistance
• $3,200: Mid-term resistance, also the confirmation area for the rebound
• $2,800: If it falls below, panic selling may expand
• $2,500: If it falls to this level, it will form a larger scale of buying or panic selling.

ETH’s trend has not yet shown a clear direction, leaning towards a fluctuating pattern.

Intensified long-short game: Who can dominate the next phase?

Bullish momentum source:

• Long-term holders continue to increase their holdings
• New institutions may enter the market
• The global regulation of crypto assets is gradually becoming clearer.

Short selling momentum comes from:

• Insufficient network activity
• Macroeconomic instability
• Whale short-term selling pressure

The forces of both sides are nearly balanced, causing ETH to fluctuate repeatedly around 3,000 dollars.

Investor Strategy Recommendations

Suitable for short-term traders:

• Observe the range between $2,800 and $3,000
• Conduct swing trading within a large volatility range
• Pay attention to whale fund dynamics

Suitable for medium to long-term investors:

• If you are optimistic about the long-term development of ETH, you can allocate in batches.
• Focus on L2 scalability, ETFs, and ecosystem growth
• Avoid heavily chasing highs or blindly bottom-fishing.

Risk Management Recommendations:

• Keep positions flexible
• Set Stop Loss
• Pay attention to macro market changes