#美联储维持利率不变 Bitcoin closed up 7.5% in July; August may face a choppy range-bound market
Bitcoin’s July close rose about 7.5%. Despite multiple headwinds—including expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes, rising bond yields, AI trading pullbacks, and the Coldcard security incident—Bitcoin still held onto its gains.
Bitx analyst said some of the resilience comes from its positioning structure—selling into late June led BTC to drop below $58k on July 1, at which point derivatives traders largely got liquidated out, leaving crypto leverage far lower than in equities.
Looking ahead, macro uncertainty remains the dominant theme.
Jeff Anderson, Managing Partner at STS Digital, believes the market may be entering a “new volatility regime,” with investors swinging between rate-cut expectations, pause expectations, and rate-hike expectations. This uncertainty could continue to pressure high-Beta assets like BTC until the economic outlook becomes clearer. Bitx analyst expects investors to stay defensive before next week’s U.S. employment report. The bigger issue, he said, is whether spot Bitcoin ETF inflows will return once the market forms a clearer view of the Fed’s path. He said, “With rate-hike risk still present, positioning will remain defensive. Whether institutional buying is aggressive—or insensitive to price—is a signal for traders; it has not been triggered yet.”
Lacie Zhang, a research analyst at BitgWallet, said that in August’s base-case scenario the market will trade in a range. Unless real yields decline or ETF flows continue to stay positive, the market can digest a neutral Fed, but it cannot simultaneously withstand a stronger U.S. dollar, higher real yields, and weak ETF demand. $BTC
Bitcoin’s July close rose about 7.5%. Despite multiple headwinds—including expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes, rising bond yields, AI trading pullbacks, and the Coldcard security incident—Bitcoin still held onto its gains.
Bitx analyst said some of the resilience comes from its positioning structure—selling into late June led BTC to drop below $58k on July 1, at which point derivatives traders largely got liquidated out, leaving crypto leverage far lower than in equities.
Looking ahead, macro uncertainty remains the dominant theme.
Jeff Anderson, Managing Partner at STS Digital, believes the market may be entering a “new volatility regime,” with investors swinging between rate-cut expectations, pause expectations, and rate-hike expectations. This uncertainty could continue to pressure high-Beta assets like BTC until the economic outlook becomes clearer. Bitx analyst expects investors to stay defensive before next week’s U.S. employment report. The bigger issue, he said, is whether spot Bitcoin ETF inflows will return once the market forms a clearer view of the Fed’s path. He said, “With rate-hike risk still present, positioning will remain defensive. Whether institutional buying is aggressive—or insensitive to price—is a signal for traders; it has not been triggered yet.”
Lacie Zhang, a research analyst at BitgWallet, said that in August’s base-case scenario the market will trade in a range. Unless real yields decline or ETF flows continue to stay positive, the market can digest a neutral Fed, but it cannot simultaneously withstand a stronger U.S. dollar, higher real yields, and weak ETF demand. $BTC
