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Around this time last year, we were discussing one of the sharpest declines for the dollar since 1973. Now, we face the exact opposite scenario: the dollar index has climbed to a 19-month high. The primary driver behind this dramatic reversal is the market’s repricing of expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s continued interest rate hikes.
Market data clearly reflects this shift. According to CME FedWatch, investors assign an approximately 87%—at times even 88%—probability to a 25-basis-point rate hike in December. There is even talk of a more aggressive 50-basis-point increase. This highlights how rapidly expectations have been revised upward, compared to the 70% probability seen just a month ago.
A key catalyst for this sharp surge in the dollar is the squeeze experienced by investors who had positioned themselves for a weaker dollar in recent months. Considering that the dollar saw eight consecutive weeks of selling throughout the year—with asset managers shifting to a net short position for the first time in months—the current rally is, in effect, the unwinding of these crowded positions. In other words, the market is being pushed higher not only by expectations of interest rate hikes but also by the necessity to close out these aggressive short positions.
However, there is an important caveat: this rise in the dollar may ultimately be constrained by questions regarding how far the Federal Reserve can actually push its interest rate hikes. For the pressure on gold and risk assets to persist, both the dollar and bond yields need to rise in tandem. If inflation data does not provide the Federal Reserve with the scope to take more aggressive action, the dollar could retreat from its current peak, potentially offering some breathing room for cryptocurrencies.
Do you believe this dollar rally is sustainable, or will we see a correction once the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path becomes clearer?
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