#长鑫科技市值突破4万亿元 Why do PC makers prefer to wait for ChangXin, instead of simply choosing Samsung?
There’s always been a one-sided belief in the market: Samsung’s technology is top-tier, its capacity is plentiful, so PC makers should just obediently use Samsung as their supplier—easy, worry-free, and no need to waste time and effort adding new vendors?
But the harsh reality of the business world is hidden right inside this seemingly stable, convenient choice.
First, Samsung prioritizes capacity allocation to AI high-end HBM memory, while general memory capacity continues to shrink.
With the AI computing industry booming across the board, the profit margin of HBM memory is several times that of ordinary memory. Samsung will inevitably prioritize diverting capacity to its own higher-profit businesses, leaving PC makers with continuously reduced general DRAM capacity. That means longer procurement lead times and ongoing reductions in purchasing allocations. If a company relies on Samsung as its single source, it is essentially handing over the lifeline of its production line to the other party.
Once Samsung’s own production capacity becomes tight—who gets their orders cut and how much the price is raised are all decided unilaterally by Samsung. Downstream OEMs have no bargaining power at all. Behind the apparent comfort lies a deadly risk that can seize you at any time.
Second, under the cyclical nature of the storage industry, overseas giants coordinate to control output and raise prices, repeatedly harvesting downstream companies.
TrendForce data shows that from Q3 2025 to Q2 2026, DRAM contract prices increased for five consecutive quarters. Under a duopoly/oligopoly structure, as long as the three memory manufacturers coordinate production capacity and tighten supply, every PC and hardware company downstream can only passively accept price hikes, while their own profit keeps being eaten away by upstream giants.
Binding to a single supplier is no different from deliberately walking into the harvesting trap carefully set up by your opponent. No mature company is willing to endure a situation where it is passively constrained for the long term.
Third, geopolitical policy risk can cut off overseas supply chains at any time; once supply is interrupted, the entire factory grinds to a halt across the board.
Geopolitical policies can change overnight. If overseas introduces semiconductor export restriction policies, domestic PC makers immediately face a chip supply cutoff. Factories stop working, orders are breached, and channel systems collapse. In just a few months, it can destroy a manufacturing company that has spent more than a decade deep in the industry. A sudden supply-cut crisis is enough to dismantle years of planning at a major manufacturer—this is the cold, brutal truth of the business world.
Many small businesses, attracted by process convenience, bind their entire upstream and downstream supply chains to a single supplier. It looks like operations are simple and efficient, but in reality they proactively place their neck directly under someone else’s blade. Large PC makers that have capital and technology could clearly rely on Samsung chips for the entire process—so why insist on spending manpower and time certifying ChangXin?
It’s not out of sentiment, and not simply to support domestic brands. It’s because they have seen the brutal outcome of surviving by depending on a giant: they plan an alternative supply chain in advance, giving themselves a backup route to save their life.
The biggest survival trap in the business world is to live comfortably and keep relying on the strong for the long term. $CXMT
There’s always been a one-sided belief in the market: Samsung’s technology is top-tier, its capacity is plentiful, so PC makers should just obediently use Samsung as their supplier—easy, worry-free, and no need to waste time and effort adding new vendors?
But the harsh reality of the business world is hidden right inside this seemingly stable, convenient choice.
First, Samsung prioritizes capacity allocation to AI high-end HBM memory, while general memory capacity continues to shrink.
With the AI computing industry booming across the board, the profit margin of HBM memory is several times that of ordinary memory. Samsung will inevitably prioritize diverting capacity to its own higher-profit businesses, leaving PC makers with continuously reduced general DRAM capacity. That means longer procurement lead times and ongoing reductions in purchasing allocations. If a company relies on Samsung as its single source, it is essentially handing over the lifeline of its production line to the other party.
Once Samsung’s own production capacity becomes tight—who gets their orders cut and how much the price is raised are all decided unilaterally by Samsung. Downstream OEMs have no bargaining power at all. Behind the apparent comfort lies a deadly risk that can seize you at any time.
Second, under the cyclical nature of the storage industry, overseas giants coordinate to control output and raise prices, repeatedly harvesting downstream companies.
TrendForce data shows that from Q3 2025 to Q2 2026, DRAM contract prices increased for five consecutive quarters. Under a duopoly/oligopoly structure, as long as the three memory manufacturers coordinate production capacity and tighten supply, every PC and hardware company downstream can only passively accept price hikes, while their own profit keeps being eaten away by upstream giants.
Binding to a single supplier is no different from deliberately walking into the harvesting trap carefully set up by your opponent. No mature company is willing to endure a situation where it is passively constrained for the long term.
Third, geopolitical policy risk can cut off overseas supply chains at any time; once supply is interrupted, the entire factory grinds to a halt across the board.
Geopolitical policies can change overnight. If overseas introduces semiconductor export restriction policies, domestic PC makers immediately face a chip supply cutoff. Factories stop working, orders are breached, and channel systems collapse. In just a few months, it can destroy a manufacturing company that has spent more than a decade deep in the industry. A sudden supply-cut crisis is enough to dismantle years of planning at a major manufacturer—this is the cold, brutal truth of the business world.
Many small businesses, attracted by process convenience, bind their entire upstream and downstream supply chains to a single supplier. It looks like operations are simple and efficient, but in reality they proactively place their neck directly under someone else’s blade. Large PC makers that have capital and technology could clearly rely on Samsung chips for the entire process—so why insist on spending manpower and time certifying ChangXin?
It’s not out of sentiment, and not simply to support domestic brands. It’s because they have seen the brutal outcome of surviving by depending on a giant: they plan an alternative supply chain in advance, giving themselves a backup route to save their life.
The biggest survival trap in the business world is to live comfortably and keep relying on the strong for the long term. $CXMT
