#Anthropic启动纳斯达克IPO路演 #作手分析 🔥 Anthropic IPO Roadshow Advances! AI Assets Repriced, or Another Valuation Test?
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$ANTHROPIC $NVDA $AMD $GOOGL $BTC Friends on the trading journey, I'm Trader.
Over the past few days, U.S. AI stocks have seen sharp volatility, with semiconductor and tech stocks retreating significantly. The market is beginning to reassess AI industry valuations and massive computing investments.
Yet in this market environment, Anthropic is still moving ahead with its IPO, planning to list on Nasdaq under the ticker ANT.
Will this IPO become a catalyst for a rebound in AI stocks, or a public test of AI commercialization and valuation?
I have a long-term bullish view on the AI industry and currently hold related assets. Today, rather than focusing only on IPO hype, we'll analyze it from three angles: financial data, valuation, and market impact.
📊 I. Financial Data: Revenue Is Growing Rapidly, and Computing Investment Is Also Astonishing
The data Anthropic disclosed to the market is impressive:
1️⃣ Revenue growth:
Revenue reached $33.24B in the first nine months of 2026, compared with approximately $2.55B in the same period of 2025, representing year-over-year growth of approximately 1206%.
Revenue in the third quarter of 2026 was approximately $16.96 billion, up approximately 45% quarter over quarter.
This shows that products such as Claude are no longer just technology showcases; the enterprise market is paying for AI capabilities, and commercialization is proceeding at a remarkable pace.
2️⃣ Computing costs:
On the other hand, in the first nine months of 2026, Anthropic's computing and infrastructure expenses reached $18.81B, or approximately 56.6% of revenue over the same period, up approximately 329% year over year.
One noteworthy detail here: although computing expenses have grown sharply, their share of revenue has fallen from 172% in the same period last year to approximately 56.6%.
This indicates that revenue is currently growing faster than computing expenses, which is a positive sign.
However, the company has nearly $900 billion in long-term computing purchase commitments. This does not mean all of it has already been spent, but it does mean that substantial funding will still be needed in the future.
My view: Anthropic's commercialization growth has been validated by revenue figures, but whether it can continually convert revenue into profit and free cash flow remains a question the market needs to test.
💡 II. IPO Valuation: The Real Test Is Only Just Beginning
The market had previously discussed a valuation of $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion for Anthropic, but some investors believe that $1.5 trillion is already at the high end of the valuation range.
There is another important development today:
Reuters reported that Anthropic had sent an IPO document to underwriting banks showing plans to issue approximately 866.7 million shares at an offering price of $70–$80, implying an offering size of approximately $69.3 billion at the upper end.
The company subsequently said that the pricing information in the document was inaccurate and that it would update the filing.
Therefore, $70–$80 and $69.3 billion cannot currently be considered final offering terms. The original proposal also included share sales by existing shareholders, so it cannot simply be understood as all the funds going to Anthropic.
I believe this matter actually highlights the core disagreement in the market:
How much are investors willing to pay for AI's future?
If management and underwriters can provide a reasonable valuation and the IPO receives strong institutional demand, it would help the market rebuild confidence in AI's commercial value.
But if it is priced too high, even with rapid company growth, it could face valuation pressure after listing.
III. Trader's Core View: This IPO Is a Public Test of AI Industry Valuations
In the past, the market was mostly trading on AI's potential. Now investors are asking:
How much revenue, profit, and free cash flow can massive computing investments generate?
I believe this is an important stage in the AI industry's transition from storytelling to commercial validation.
If Anthropic goes public at a reasonable valuation, it could become an important catalyst for a recovery in AI stocks and lead the market to reassess the value of companies across the supply chain such as NVDA, AMD, and GOOGL.
But it must be emphasized: Anthropic's successful listing does not mean the entire AI sector has bottomed, nor does it mean all AI assets will rise in tandem.
Ultimately, it still comes down to orders, revenue, profit, cash flow, and whether market capital is actually flowing back in.
🎯 IV. Trader's Trading Plan: Bullish on the Industry, Respect the Price
• Long-term spot holdings: Continue to be bullish on the AI industry, focusing on companies with technological barriers, real customers, and commercialization capabilities. Build positions in batches on pullbacks instead of making a one-time bet.
• Short-term futures trading: Don't blindly bet on a one-way move driven by IPO news, and don't chase the first big bullish candle. Wait for a breakout, pullback, and confirmation before considering an entry.
• Risk control: If the IPO valuation is too high, or the price structure weakens after listing, position sizes still need to be controlled rather than holding on indefinitely just because you are bullish on AI.
My view is clear:
I am bullish on AI and Anthropic's long-term prospects, but I won't turn that bullishness into an unconditional bet.
The long-term opportunities in the AI industry remain, but the companies that will ultimately weather the cycle are those that truly have technology, customers, and revenue, and can continuously improve profitability.
Data is the catalyst; price structure is the trading signal.
Macro sets the direction, structure sets the entry. Let the market provide the answer, rather than trying to predict it!
Which outcome do you favor for this Anthropic IPO?
A. Reasonably priced, then surges after listing 🚀
B. Valuation deflates, then trades sideways after listing ☕
C. Computing investment is too high, putting pressure on valuation 📉
D. No one-way bets; wait for right-side confirmation 🛡️
Feel free to leave a comment!
(Personal opinions only, for discussion, and not investment advice.)
