Why isn’t a trading strategy with a higher win rate necessarily more profitable than one with a lower win rate?

Many traders have an intuition: the higher the win rate, the stronger the trading ability, and the more money they should make.

But in real trading, this assumption often proves wrong.

Some strategies win seven out of ten trades, yet the account keeps shrinking; others win only three or four out of ten, but may perform better over the long term.

Why?

Because long-term trading performance depends not only on the win rate, but also on average profits, average losses, trading costs

Worth trying because I like JetBrains.

BTC dipped to $73,300 last night, pretty much following the expected path. The orderly sell-off by large holders was easy to spot on the daily chart from $87,000. So far, there have been no market signals indicating that $73,000 isn't the bottom. Capital, institutions, and candlestick charts can all be deceptive; only the market's voice cannot. The market's reaction is the truest measure of every rise and fall.

#USCPIDataIncoming 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗣𝗶𝗽𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲: 𝟲.𝟯% 𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝗲𝗿 𝗚𝗮𝘁𝗲, 𝟯.𝟳% 𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗖𝗵𝗲𝗰𝗸𝗼𝘂𝘁, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗚𝗮𝗽 𝗧𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗖𝗣𝗜 𝗗𝗮𝘆 𝗠𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗻
CPI day is Tuesday, November 10 at 8:30 a.m. ET, and PPI follows on Friday, November 13. Most previews focus on the CPI number itself. A better question is how much of the cost pressure already built up at the producer level has yet to reach shoppers. In September, producer prices rose 6.3% from a year earlier while consumer prices rose 3.7%. That 2.6-point gap is the pipeline, and i

Gulfstream Notes: SNDK 4h Pullback Long
2026.11.09-11:19

1. Background trend: An oversold rebound has formed a double-bottom recovery structure. Price is currently moving sideways, with key resistance at 900 and potential for a reversal.

2. View: Focus on the 4-hour candle close. After a piercing pattern or engulfing candle appears, confirm that buying volume follows through, then look for long opportunities. Wait for an entry signal on either a breakout above resistance or a pullback to support.

3. Strategy: Intraday approach. Wait for the signal candle to pull back near 0.382–0.5 before e

$UAI This -24.51% bearish candle is a textbook display of market-maker tactics. Let me simulate the market narrative: Dense sell walls appeared near 0.0890 early in the session. Retail traders saw “resistance” and were afraid to chase, but in reality, the market maker was creating the illusion of selling pressure by trading back and forth between its own accounts. Then it used a series of small, roughly 5,000U orders to push the price down. Each time it broke through a key level (0.07, 0.065), it ramped up volume to 5 million U in trading value to trigger panic. The 24-hour trading volume hit

Why doesn't an increase in the number of trades necessarily lead to more profit?

Many traders have had this experience:

When the market is quiet, they feel there are no opportunities; when volatility picks up, they worry about missing out.

As a result, they open their trading software more and more often and enter trades more frequently. Their account activity looks busy, but their returns ultimately show no significant improvement.

Sometimes, the number of trades increases, but losses grow instead.

The question is: are you capturing more valid opportunities, or just creating more trades?

The just-released domestic October PPI data surged to 5.7% year over year, up further from 5% last month
Many people might initially think this means industry is recovering and companies are about to make big profits, but it’s really not that simple
Factory-gate prices were pushed sharply higher this time, mainly not because people are buying more, but because upstream raw material and energy costs were driven up
So what exactly should we keep a close eye on next?
First, whether higher raw material costs can be passed on to ordinary consumers
Upstream raw material prices have risen too much, b

$KORU LONG SETUP — STRONG RECOVERY! BUYERS ARE BACK!

$KORU is bouncing aggressively from 6.452, with buyers pushing price back above 7.00. Bullish momentum is returning, and another upside move could be developing!

Entry: 7.050
SL: 6.870

TP1: 7.261
TP2: 7.372
TP3: 7.464
Final Target: 7.600

Buyers have staged an impressive recovery after the sharp sell-off. Price has reclaimed the 6.912 area, but 7.188 remains the next obstacle. If buying pressure continues and this resistance breaks, $KORU could extend its recovery toward 7.372 and higher.

Invalidation: A sustained break below 6.870 weake

#USCPIDataIncoming

US CPI DATA INCOMING: Inflation Report Could Set the Next Direction for Crypto Markets

The Countdown Begins

The next major U.S. inflation report is almost here, and financial markets are preparing for another important test. The October 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is scheduled for November 10 at 8:30 AM Eastern Time.

This release matters because inflation influences interest rate expectations, the strength of the U.S. dollar, bond yields, stock market sentiment, and the flow of money into riskier assets such as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

For crypto

Why Doesn’t Trading More Often Necessarily Lead to Higher Profits?

Many traders have experienced this:

When the market is quiet, they feel there are no opportunities; when volatility picks up, they worry about missing out.

So they open their trading app more and more often and enter trades with increasing frequency. Their accounts seem busy, but their returns ultimately show little improvement.

Sometimes, as the number of trades increases, losses grow instead.

The question is: Are you capturing more valid opportunities, or just creating more trades?

The number of trades reflects activity

How Can Out-of-Sample Testing and Walk-Forward Backtesting Help Determine Whether a Trading Strategy Is Truly Reliable?

Suppose you’ve spent months researching a trading strategy, constantly adjusting its parameters, and eventually produced a beautiful historical returns curve.

You might think you’ve found an effective approach.

But there’s a problem: if you repeatedly use the same historical data to adjust your strategy, does that returns curve prove the strategy works, or does it simply show that you found the parameters best suited to that historical data?

That’s the problem overfitting

Nonfarm payrolls blow past expectations, December rate hike expectations rise! BTC near $74,800: rebound or reversal?

This nonfarm payrolls report certainly threw cold water on the market
The US added 165,000 nonfarm jobs in October, far exceeding market expectations of 65,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%

Strong employment data has prompted the market to reassess the Fed's policy path, with December rate hike expectations rising significantly.

Kunren has one thing to say: The stronger the economic data, the less easy it is for risk assets!
The transmission mechanism behind this

11.9 BTC trade setup
The chart shows BTC plunging sharply in the short term, hitting a low of 73333 before quickly recovering. This presents an oversold rebound opportunity after the sharp drop, with support below; the strategy is to trade a short-term rebound and go long.

- Entry range: 74600-74800; try a small long position near the current price. If it retests around 74200, you can add to the position.
- Stop loss: 73300. A break below this low would signal that bearish momentum is continuing and invalidate the long thesis, so exit the position.
- Take profit:
First target: 76000 (resistan

SOL's daily trend remains in a descending channel, with the moving averages in a bearish alignment continuing to pressure the market. The Bollinger Bands are opening downward, and the overall structure remains weak and in a primary downtrend. The area around 96 is a key daily resistance zone; until price can hold above this level, do not rush to expect a bullish reversal.
After the sharp 4-hour drop, price has entered a low-level consolidation phase. Bearish pressure has briefly eased, and the market is now in a recovery cycle. However, 89–90, the starting point of the decline, is a strong res

$NVDA Jensen Huang publicly admits to cheating—will Nvidia fall again amid such a huge scandal?🤔

🚀11.9 Midday Market Outlook🚀

$ETH 思路：

If ETH breaks below 2166 on high volume, enter a right-side long; stop out if it reclaims the level.

If ETH breaks below 2125 on high volume, enter a right-side short and make sure to set a stop-loss.

If a retest of 2098 confirms that support is holding, add one lot to the long; stop out if ETH breaks below 2051.

If ETH holds above 2166 on the hourly timeframe, look for upside targets of 2245-2309.

Watch for a one-lot short at 2245; stop out if ETH breaks above 2309.

Left-side wick orders: long at 2035; stop out if ETH breaks below 2000.

Qatar Makes Another Move! Trump Is Ready to Meet, While Iran Is Still Watching—Can the U.S. and Iran Really Make Peace This Time?

The Middle East has a new twist! Once again, Qatar is stepping in as a peacemaker.
Qatar’s prime minister is set to visit the White House and meet with Trump, with a focus on how to get the U.S. and Iran talking again and bring ceasefire and nuclear negotiations back on track.
On the surface, the diplomatic mood seems to be warming, but the real problem is this: the U.S. wants Iran to make concessions on the nuclear issue, while Iran wants the U.S. to lift sanction