11.2 Morning Analysis
BTC and ETH’s oversold rebound continues. The 1-hour MACD has formed a golden cross below the zero line, and short-term recovery momentum remains. The broader downtrend channel remains intact, with clear resistance from the medium- and long-term moving averages. This is a technical recovery; there is insufficient basis to call a reversal.
BTC rebounded from the recent low of 76270, moving back above the short-term EMA21 (77962) and EMA25 (77936). The MACD formed a golden cross below the zero line, and the red bars continue to expand, indicating that short-term recovery momentum remains. However, the medium- and long-term EMA144 and EMA169 remain bearishly aligned and continue to diverge downward, creating strong resistance in the 78700-79000 range. The overall downtrend structure remains intact, so the rebound is defined only as an oversold recovery, with no basis for a trend reversal.
ETH rebounded in tandem with BTC and moved above the short-term moving averages. The MACD is running with a golden cross below the zero line, but both the rebound height and momentum are weaker than BTC’s, while resistance from the medium- and long-term moving averages is more pronounced.
BTC: Resistance 79000/80000; support 78000/77000
ETH: Resistance 2320/2360; support 2260/2210
Trading recommendation: prioritize short positions when the rebound meets resistance
BTC: Consider a small short position near 78800 on a rebound
Target: 78000
ETH: Consider a small short position near 2300 on a rebound
Target: 2270
$BTC $ETH #BTC大跌 #Strategy优先股回归100美元面值 #ETH回落 
