#ShareWeekly #WarshIMFSpeech Warsh at the IMF: why the Bangkok remarks matter for rate hikes and for BTC
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh joined IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva for a fireside chat at the IMF-World Bank meetings in Bangkok, and the two questions in this topic are the right ones. Is the tone hawkish or dovish, and what does it mean for Bitcoin? Here are the answers, backed by the numbers that moved after he spoke.
Tone: neutral on the surface, hawkish underneath
Warsh did not choose a side. He reiterated the Fed's commitment to price stability while refusing to prejudge upcoming policy meetings. He also avoided forward guidance and pointed to a synchronous tightening by central banks worldwide, which frames inflation as a global problem, not only an American one. On growth, he described a surge in investment as the primary upside force in the global economy. That sounds constructive, but it also gives policymakers room to keep rates elevated if prices stay stubborn.
The context explains why silence was read as relief. September CPI rose 3.7% against 3.6% expected, and producer prices rose 1.3% on the month and 6.3% on the year, with energy up 10.8%. Core PPI jumped 0.7% against a 0.3% forecast. With data that hot, any hawkish hint could have hit markets hard. No hint came. One analysis summed it up this way: markets interpreted the absence of hawkish warnings as relief rather than an outright dovish turn.
Can the Fed hike again in October
Yes, but the market now rates it as unlikely. The implied probability of a hike in two weeks fell from around 27% to 15% after the remarks, according to the Financial Times. Rate futures showed a similar picture at 14.9%, down from 28%. The case for another hike has not disappeared, though. New York Fed President John Williams has said one more hike this year is appropriate, and the next policy meeting is October 27-28. The decisive inputs between now and then are the next inflation prints, energy prices and any shift in Fed speakers' language. Another hot reading would likely push odds back up quickly.
How the other markets reacted
The cross-asset response was consistent with softer hike fears:
- Dollar: the US Dollar Index hit a fresh 10-day low near 101.80. The euro rose and the Australian dollar moved toward 0.6950.
- Bonds: the 10-year Treasury yield held near 5.08%.
- US stocks: S&P 500 futures traded near 7,800 and Nasdaq 100 futures near 30,150.
- Korea: the KOSPI, which crashed 7.57% on Thursday, rose 2.05% to close at 5,668.05, its first higher close in eight sessions.
- Gold: it plunged toward $4,073 on bets of more hikes before recovering as yields and the dollar reversed.
What it means for BTC
The impact was a relief bounce, not a regime change. Bitcoin jumped more than 2% over 24 hours to trade near $82,300, and it is around $81,650 now. The reason is mechanical: a weaker dollar and calmer rate expectations ease pressure on risk assets. The contrast with August is useful. When Warsh delivered a clearly hawkish message at Jackson Hole, Bitcoin dropped below $77,000. This time the tone was neutral, and the market responded the other way.
Even so, the relief has limits. One analysis called the effect on Bitcoin mixed, with high rates possibly lingering. Bitcoin is also still recovering from this week's flush, when it dipped below $80,000 and liquidations approached $1 billion.
Key BTC levels:
- Support: the 50-day EMA at $80,443, then the 100-day EMA at $76,824 and the 200-day EMA at $75,751.
- Resistance: a daily close above $82,538 would strengthen the recovery toward $84,049 to $84,250.
- Risk line: a close below $80,443 would put $80,206 and the recent low near $79,694 back in play.
Scenarios into the Fed meeting
Rally case: inflation data cools or hike odds fall further, and BTC clears $82,538 toward $84,250. Range case: no new catalyst, and BTC trades between $80,400 and $83,000. Pullback case: hot data revives hike odds above 30%, the dollar firms and BTC retests $80,000.
My view:
Warsh did not give guidance, so the market is trading its own expectations. The balance of evidence favors a modest relief move, with the Fed meeting and the next inflation reports as the real tests. I would keep leverage low, respect $80,000 as the key level, and treat any rally as conditional on the data.

#美股存储板块跌幅扩大 The Nature of the U.S. Tech Pullback Is Shifting: From Valuation Repricing to Credit-Chain Repricing
Many people are still viewing U.S. stocks through the old “AI pullback = buying opportunity” playbook. But if you only watch the Nasdaq and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, you may miss the most important change:
July was “AI valuation/positioning repricing”; October is a triple hit from “the AI credit chain + high interest rates + geopolitics/oil prices.” The latter is closer to a “credit-side preview” of the bursting of the 2000 internet bubble, but we’re not yet in a full-blown bear market.
I. July pullback: Expensive, crowded, but no blowup!
Trigger: Google/Meta/Tesla raised CAPEX forecasts, FCF turned negative, and the market asked, “When will AI spending pay off?”
QQQ fell from a June high of ~$748.65 to a July 29 low of $661.14, a peak-to-trough decline of 11.7%; QQQ fell 6.5% for the full month of July, and SOXX fell 21%.
The 10-year Treasury yield was at 4.6–4.75%; the VIX spiked to 20.66 on a weekly basis (+24%), but the broad VIX did not stay above 22. VXN reached 26, but there was no panic spike.
The S&P edged down, while equal-weight stocks rose; money rotated within equities (tech → Dow/healthcare/consumer). Bonds didn’t rally, and yields rose → this wasn’t a flight to safety, but “semiconductors are too crowded, trim them first.”
Outcome: The 200-day moving average at $645 held, and stocks recovered after August. This was a correction that could be bought.
II. October pullback: From “valuation” to “who can’t repay their loans?”
The logic behind this tech pullback since October is more like:
Borrow at a 15% cost to build compute capacity → rental income can’t cover interest → credit cracks appear first → semiconductor order expectations get cut → quite a few sell-side firms are using the 2000 internet bubble as a reference (the Nasdaq crashed, while long-bond yields fell from 6.5% to the mid-4% range).
Market action: It’s not a broad selloff; “highly leveraged growth + AI infrastructure” are being singled out for punishment. From 10/14–10/16, the Dow rose 0.67% for the week, XLV/energy were strong, the SPX fell ~1.95% for the week, and the Nasdaq fell 4.48% for the week (its worst since June); the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) fell for 8 straight days (the longest streak since 2008);
Among individual stocks: CRWV fell 25% for the week, CDS breached 1000bp, and its 5-year default probability was priced at 60%+.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell from 5.3% to 5.07–5.19%, but this was a safe-haven decline as stocks fell and money fled into Treasuries, not a central-bank rescue; the VIX broke above 22, Brent crude topped 110, and tensions in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine escalated.
Investor sentiment: the CNN Fear & Greed Index fell to 18, but it’s not yet at the extreme “2–4” levels seen in 2018/2020—meaning the market is shifting from “uncomfortably expensive” to “a little worried about credit,” but this is not a COVID-style liquidity collapse.
III. How have similar “credit-side + tech selloff” pullbacks played out historically?
The 2000 internet bubble burst: The Nasdaq was cut in half, then cut in half again from its peak, while the S&P lagged; valuations were hit first, then earnings, then credit, and bonds ultimately entered a bull market. The difference today: major tech issuers aren’t pure concepts; their cash flows/cloud revenues are real. So this isn’t a repeat of 2000, but “the 2000 credit playbook + the 2022 interest-rate playbook.”
The 2022 rate-driven growth selloff: The 10-year Treasury yield surged from 1.5% to 4.3%, QQQ fell 35% from its peak, and SPY fell 25%; the core issue was the “discount rate,” not credit defaults. The 10-year Treasury yield is now above 5%; megacaps are hurting, but banks/consumer/healthcare haven’t collapsed.
2018 Q4 deleveraging: The VIX spiked to 35, QQQ fell about 20% for the quarter, and stocks made a V-shaped recovery after the Fed turned dovish; the Fed isn’t as hawkish now, but inflation + oil prices mean it can’t turn dovish freely.
March 2020 liquidity black hole: The VIX hit 80, and stocks, bonds, and gold all fell together, with the Fed providing a backstop; there’s no COVID-style liquidity freeze now, and CRWV is an individual credit event, not a market-wide counterparty crisis.
Historical rules of thumb
“VIX above 20 + 10-year Treasury yield rising + tech leading declines” → usually the middle of a pullback, not the bottom.
“VIX plateauing at high levels + 10-year Treasury yield starting to fall + semiconductors no longer making new lows” → only then is it a signal to add to QQQ.
Until credit events (CDS widening, high-yield bond spreads widening) stabilize, every QQQ rebound is prone to being sold.
Historical timing reference: the July pullback took 3–5 weeks to recover; with an October-style “credit + rates + geopolitics” combination, a bottom usually isn’t in until the VIX returns to 16–18, CRWV bonds stop falling, and SOXX posts a high-volume candle without making a new low. This often takes 3–8 weeks; if credit spreads widen to Oracle/major tech bonds, it can drag on for a quarter.
IV. The counterintuitive point during earnings season: stock prices are falling, but earnings haven’t collapsed. In the first week of the new 26Q3 earnings season, about 9% of large S&P 500 companies had reported earnings. Stock prices are falling, but earnings haven’t collapsed—the declines reflect “discount rates + credit expectations,” not “current results.”
Companies that have reported: earnings up 29% year over year, revenue up 12.6%;
26Q1 earnings up 28.6%, 26Q2 up 50.4% → the strongest earnings cycle since 2021Q2;
Market pricing for full-year 2026: earnings up 32.8%, revenue up 12.7%;
Q3/Q4 earnings expectations: +29% / +28.6%;
The S&P’s forward P/E is 19.0: below the 10-year average of 19.1 and the 5-year average of 19.8.
This isn’t an “earnings collapse”; the market is getting ahead of three fears:
① AI CAPEX returns in 2027 will fall short of expectations;
② 10-year Treasury yields at 5%+ will discount long-duration assets;
③ AI credit-chain players like CoreWeave will blow up first.
So this is neither 2000 (earnings fraud/disappearance) nor 2022 (earnings downgrades + interest-rate battering). It’s “earnings are very strong, but valuation logic is being repriced for credit risk.”
V. Why is the week of October 19–23 a turning point?
This isn’t an ordinary earnings week. It’s a week to “use real-economy cash flows to rescue tech valuations.”
1) Wednesday’s two pillars: META + TSLA
What to watch for in META:
Will CAPEX be revised higher again, how are advertising/AI monetization progressing, and what is happening with free cash flow?
If it says “we’re continuing to invest more in AI, but ROI is clear” → it eases July-style spending concerns;
If it says “returns are slower than expected” → QQQ could sell off again.
What to watch for in TSLA:
It’s not just a car company; it’s a high-beta proxy for “AI / robotics / energy storage.”
Deliveries, gross margin, FSD, and what it says about Optimus matter more than sales volume.
A weak TSLA → high-beta tech sentiment could collapse again.
2) Industrial / defense / payments: proof that “the non-AI parts of the economy are holding up”
GE, RTX, NOC, LMT, MMM, UNP, CAT names (URI), AXP, COF:
Industrial orders = the temperature of the real economy;
Credit cards (AXP/COF) = consumer resilience and delinquencies;
Defense (RTX/NOC/LMT) = a geopolitical premium, but with budget constraints.
If they hold up, investors will be more willing to stay in SPY / XLI / XLV rather than go back to catch the falling knife in QQQ.
3) Macro anchors
Tuesday: housing starts / existing-home sales → has housing frozen under 5%+ rates?
Thursday: initial jobless claims + leading indicators → are there cracks in employment?
Friday: manufacturing / services PMI → soft landing or a second downturn in manufacturing?
These data will determine whether the 10-year Treasury yield holds 5.0% or surges to 5.3%–5.5%, and will directly determine the discount rates for SPY / QQQ.#WCTCS9

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